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Devigging, models, prediction markets, sport-by-sport primers, tax basics.
DFS Pick'em strategy — Underdog Fantasy + similar
Pick'em is not daily fantasy and it is not a sportsbook prop, even though it borrows the interface of one and the vocabulary of the other.
Tax basics for bettors — what every winning year needs
This article is general information, not tax advice. Nothing here is a substitute for a professional who knows your return, your state, and your numbers.
Hedging math — when it makes sense, when it costs you EV
Hedging is a risk decision that people keep making as if it were a value decision.
CBB + March Madness — angle stacking, pace, line value
College basketball is the largest priced market in American sports and the least carefully priced.
NHL primer — totals, puck-line, goalie news, line speed
NHL is the most goalie-dependent major sport.
Soccer / EPL primer — corners, cards, 1X2 explained
Soccer is the most-bet sport globally and underbet by US sharps.
UFC primer — method props, fight IQ, the closer rule
UFC betting is the closest thing to inefficient-market gold in major sports.
CFB primer — angles the books are slow on
College football is the largest market with the slowest sportsbook lines.
Line shopping at speed — the 3-screen routine
Line shopping is the only edge in betting that requires no model, no angle, and no opinion.
Kalshi vs Polymarket — which for what
Both Kalshi and Polymarket are prediction-market platforms — places to bet on the outcomes of real-world events priced as binary contracts (Yes/No,…
Sharp Markets primer — prediction markets 101
A sportsbook hides probability inside a price you have to decode. A prediction market puts the probability on the screen.
Correlated parlays — when SGPs are actually +EV
Standard wisdom on parlays: they're a tax.
Player props edge — matchup × pace × rate
A prop line is a book's projection wearing a price tag. To find edge you need your own projection and a way to compare the two in the same units.
Promo conversion — turning sportsbook offers into cash
Sportsbooks throw promotional money at new and existing customers — deposit matches, free bets, profit boosts, "bet $5 get $200." Most of those promos…
Devigging methods compared — which to trust when
Lesson #4 taught the standard way to strip vig from sportsbook odds — proportional devigging. It works on most markets. It doesn't work on all of them.
How Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling Help Bettors
The Sharp App is a comprehensive sports betting information app that offers users a range of tools, models, content, expert picks, props, bet tracking…
The Frequentist vs. Bayesian in Sports Betting
In sports betting, as in other areas of statistical analysis, there are two main approaches to estimating the probability of an event occurring: the…
How To Use Pythagorean Win Expectations
This lesson from the Sharp Academy Statsational discusses what Pythagorean Win Expectation is, how to calculate it, and how to implement it in your…
Can Betting Against Your Prop Projection Be Right?
Any time you are putting money at risk, you should be doing so with an expected value that is positive. This is how professional gamblers bet.
How To Use Future Value Of Money In Your Handicapping
When betting on sports, there are more factors to think about than just who you think is the best team.
How to Find The Most Profitable Props in NBA and More
NBA Prop betting is quickly becoming one of the most popular forms of sports betting.
Build a Simple Sports Betting Model with Linear Regression
Most of today's profitable sports bettors are using models to help them handicap.
Create Your Own Lines
Finding value is how professional sports bettors determine which games they are going to bet on. It is a simple concept but one that is hard to execute.
Calculating Props In Sports Betting - Poisson Distribution
With so many prop bets being offered at sportsbooks, they have become a popular bet for sports bettors.
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