A starter is listed questionable. How many points is that worth? Adjusting power ratings for news is harder than it looks, and this lesson takes it step by step. You separate availability from participation and effectiveness, since questionable is not a 50% chance of playing. Then you model two scenarios: if a player's absence costs two points and the chance he sits is 30%, the average hit is 0.6 points, but the spread of outcomes is wider. You learn to trace lineup changes through a causal chain, avoid counting the same effect twice, and ask how much the market has already absorbed. For bettors reacting to late news, it swaps gut feel for weighted scenarios you can test.
Learning objectives
By the end, members should be able to implement and explain the method, reproduce the worked example, identify failure modes, and distinguish a supported research conclusion from an unsupported betting claim.
