<h4>Opening Line</h4>The opening line at a sportsbook is the initial set of odds offered on a particular sporting event. Most sportsbooks use computer programs or algorithms to help generate odds and lines. These programs often rely on data and statistical analysis to determine the probability of each team or athlete winning.&nbsp;Once the opening line is set, it can be adjusted based on the volume and type of bets being placed, as well as other factors that may affect the outcome of the event. For example, if a significant number of bets are placed on one team, the sportsbook may adjust the odds to balance the risk and protect against potential losses.<h4>Sharp Money Moving a Line</h4>&quot;Sharp money&quot; refers to bets placed by professional or knowledgeable bettors, who are often referred to as &quot;sharps.&quot; Sharps are often very knowledgeable about the teams or athletes involved in a particular event and may have insights that are not reflected in the initial lines or odds offered by a sportsbook.If a sportsbook detects that sharp bettors are heavily betting on one side of a bet, it may adjust the line to protect against potential losses. This is because sharp bettors are often seen as more reliable indicators of the true probability of an event than the general betting public, who may be influenced by factors such as bias or emotions.For example, if a sportsbook receives a large number of bets on one team from sharp bettors, it may adjust the line to attract more bets on the other team. This helps the sportsbook balance the risk of accepting bets and protect against potential losses.Overall, sharp money can impact line movement at a sportsbook, but it is only one factor that is considered when adjusting lines. Sportsbooks also consider other factors, such as changes in the underlying event, the betting patterns of the general public, and the need to balance the risk of accepting bets. Sharp app pro subscribers have seen this first hand. Our Top Prop NBA bets can move the line rather quickly.<h4>Reading Line Moves</h4>Line moves can be an important tool for sports bettors because they can provide insight into the betting patterns and expectations of other bettors and the sportsbook itself. By understanding the factors driving line moves, bettors can better understand the true probability of an event and potentially make more informed betting decisions.<ol><li>Look for reverse line moves:&nbsp;A reverse line move occurs when the line moves in the opposite direction of where the money is being bet. This can indicate that sharp bettors, who are often seen as more knowledgeable and reliable indicators of the true probability of an event, are heavily betting on that side. You can read the Sharp Report in the content section of the Sharp App to see where the sharps and public (squares) are putting their money. Look at the handles in the game center for the bet%(# of tickets) and money% being bet on each side. If the line seems to be moving against where the money is being bet, it may indicate sharp money.</li><li>Monitor line moves over time:Lines can frequently change, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. By monitoring line moves over time, bettors can better understand the overall trend and make more informed betting decisions. When viewing the gamecenter in the app, you will see a chart of the line moves from the open up until the current line.</li><li>Watch out for steam:A steam move refers to a sudden and significant line move in a particular betting market. These moves are often caused by a large number of bets being placed on one side of a game, which can result in the line moving quickly and dramatically. Steam moves are often associated with sharp or professional bettors.</li><li>Consider other factors:In addition to line moves, bettors should also consider other factors that may affect the outcome of the event, such as injuries, weather conditions, and home-field advantage. By taking these factors into account, bettors can get a complete picture of the true probability of the event.</li></ol><h4>Conclusion</h4>Line moves can be a valuable tool for sports bettors looking to gain an edge in their betting. By understanding how and why lines move, and using advanced betting strategies, bettors can better understand the betting patterns and expectations of other bettors and the sportsbook. By considering these factors, bettors can make more informed betting decisions and potentially increase their chances of winning. The Sharp App gives you the same information the professionals use when analyzing line moves.<a href="https://discord.gg/sharp-app-sports-betting-750497266552537217" title="">Join thousands of like minded sports bettors along with the pros in our discord to learn more about how to read line moves.</a>

How Can A Bettor Use Line Movements To Make Sharper Bets?

<h4>How Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling in the Sharp App are Helping Sports Bettors</h4>The Sharp App is a comprehensive sports betting information app that offers users a range of tools, models, content, expert picks, props, bet tracking and AI-powered models to help them make informed betting decisions. One of the key ways that the Sharp App is leveraging technology to improve sports betting is through the use of data analysis and predictive modeling. In this article, we'll explore how these technologies are being used in the Sharp App and the benefits they offer to users.<h4>What are Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling?</h4>Data analysis is the process of examining large amounts of data to identify patterns and trends. This can be done manually, but more commonly, it is done using specialized software tools that can quickly process and analyze large datasets. On the other hand, predictive modeling involves using data analysis to build models that can predict future outcomes. For example, based on past performance data, a predictive model might be used to predict the likelihood of a particular sports team winning a game.<h4>How are Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling Used in the Sharp App?</h4>The Sharp App uses data analysis and predictive modeling in several ways, including:<ol><li>Predictive models: The Sharp App offers users access to various predictive models built by our pros to help them make more informed betting decisions. These models use data analysis to identify trends and patterns that might influence the outcome of a game and provide users with probabilities for each outcome.</li><li>Expert picks: The Sharp App also offers users access to expert picks from industry professionals who use data analysis and predictive modeling to make informed betting recommendations.</li><li>Props: The Sharp App offers an analysis of props that are based on data analysis and predictive modeling. The Top Props article and Top Props tool in the Sharp App provide users with the daily bets our models and experts think are the best value.</li><li>AI-powered features: AI and machine learning are used in the Sharp App in a variety of ways, including creating advanced predictive models that analyze large amounts of data on teams, players, and past games to identify trends and patterns that might influence the outcome of a game; suggesting bets to users, and identifying value bets. By leveraging the power of AI and advanced data analysis, the Sharp App provides users with more accurate and detailed predictions that help them make more informed betting decisions.</li><li>Bet Tracking: The Sharp App's bet tracking feature is another way that data analysis and predictive modeling are being used to improve sports betting. This feature allows users to keep track of the size, the odds, and the outcome of their bets. By analyzing this data, users can identify trends and patterns in their betting behavior and adjust their betting strategy if needed. Overall, the bet tracking feature is a valuable tool for users who want to understand their betting habits better and improve their chances of success.</li></ol>Overall, the data analysis and predictive modeling features of the Sharp App are designed to help users make more informed and accurate betting decisions and increase their chances of success.<a href="https://discord.gg/sharp-app-sports-betting-750497266552537217" title="">Join the thousands in our discord and talk to our pros about how the Sharp App works and how it can benefit you.</a>

How Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling in the Sharp App are Helping Sports Bettors

This lesson from the Sharp Academy Statsational discusses what Pythagorean Win Expectation is, how to calculate it, and how to implement it in your handicapping.The formula for Pythah Win Expectations in the NFL is(Points For*2.37/(Points For^2.37+Points Ag^2.37))*17If you have any questions on this, or any video, contact @statsational in our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">discord</a>.

How To Use Pythagorean Win Expectations

There is no more important aspect of betting than value. No matter what the risk endeavor you need to know what the probability is of the outcome you want and compare that to the price you are getting. This concept is not just for sports betting. If you watch Shark Tank you will see the sharks are trying to put a value on a company. They would invest in most companies if the value was such to make the deal worth their while.In sports every side of a bet has value potentially. If I had a 3 point shooting contest with Steph Curry you may not want to bet on me even up, but if the odds got high enough there would be a number you would want to take a shot on me winning at.

What is Value Betting in Sports?

Any time you are putting money at risk, you should be doing so with an expected value that is positive. This is how professional gamblers bet. They look for an edge and try to exploit as many of these edges as possible over time. When betting props, often I will be on the opposite side the projections are saying we should be. But that is based on what the payoff is on each side.

Can Betting Against Your Prop Projection Be Right?

Using Implied Probabilities we can get an edge on the competition in all sorts of pools. In this video, Statsational will show you how to use the Implied Odds to help with your NFL playoff Survivor pools and also fantasy pools.<a href="https://dksb.sng.link/As9kz/4n7i?_dl=https%3A%2F%2Fsportsbook.draftkings.com%2Fgateway%3Fs%3D857632325%26wpcid%3D172660%26wpcn%3DNFL2021_5FTD1000DB_L7%26wpsrc%3DThe%2520Sharp%2520App%26wpcrid%3D&pcid=172660&pcn=NFL2021_5FTD1000DB_L7&psn=The+Sharp+App" title="">Get odds from Draftkings</a><a href="http://wlwilliamhillus.adsrv.eacdn.com/C.ashx?btag=a_1166b_1740c_&affid=174&siteid=1166&adid=1740&c=" title="">Get odds from Caesars</a><a href="https://mediaserver.betmgmpartners.com/renderBanner.do?zoneId=1659599" title="">Get odds from BetMGM</a>

NFL Playoff Strategies and Tips To Win Your Pool | Scratchin and Survivn with Statsational

The basics on how to bet on the spread in sports betting. Here is the formula to calculate what the breakeven point for the &quot;juice&quot; would be. The formula for a minus juice (a negative number i.e. -110)-line/(100-line)The formula for plus juice (a positive number i.e. +105)100/(100+line) In the video, John talks about -110 juice being a 52.4% breakeven point. -(-110)/(100-(-110))110/210=52.4%For +105 juice 100/(105+100)100/205 = 48.8%To learn more about sports betting join our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord chat</a>

Beginner Level

How to bet against the "Spread" - Beginner Level Lesson 1

I will explain to you how the money line works in sports betting.The money line bet is a straight-up bet on which team or player will win a game. The only thing that matters is that they win. They do not need to win by a certain amount of points, like a spread bet. You probably made bets like this in the past with friends. In the video, we go over an example bet on shooting a free throw.Moneyline betting is the simplest form of betting. You just need to pick a winner.The video will also go into detail on how the money line is used to calculate the probability of an event occurring and vice versa.If you have money line questions or want to learn more about sports betting head on over to our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord Chat</a>

Moneyline Bet Explained - Beginner Level Lesson 2

One of the more overlooked yet most important aspects of gambling is sports betting bankroll management and money management.The most important thing for every business is to stay in business.&nbsp; It is impossible to make money when you have to lock your doors.&nbsp; As a sports bettor, this applies to you as well.&nbsp; You need to treat your sports betting like a business.&nbsp; If you have no money to bet with you can no longer make money. So more important than anything else is sports betting bankroll management.<ul><li>Set aside a certain amount for each season, sport, month or any other way you want to do it.&nbsp; The most important thing is to actually put that money on the side.&nbsp; This is not the money you need for daily expenses.&nbsp; The funds here are strictly for sports betting.</li><li>Based on your bankroll you will risk 1-2% of it per bet.&nbsp; As a casual player, you do not want to risk any more than that.&nbsp; Once you build a model that works and you have an edge you may vary bet sizes.</li><li>For ML bets you will want to focus on the &ldquo;to risk&rdquo; number and not the &ldquo;to win&rdquo; number.&nbsp; Again, this will change when you get to be more advanced but for now, you want to keep the risks minimal.&nbsp; For beginners, I suggest betting to WIN 1% to 2% of your bankroll or your typical unit size.&nbsp; &nbsp;For a -200 favorite, you&rsquo;ll be risking 2 units to win 1 unit. For a +200 dog, you&rsquo;ll be risking .5 units to win 1 unit.</li><li>You could &ldquo;reset&rdquo; your bankroll after certain periods of time.&nbsp; For instance each month you can assess where you are and update your bankroll and as such your base bet amount.&nbsp; If you start with a $5,000 bankroll and win $500 over the course of a month you can up your bets by 10%.&nbsp; If you were betting $100 per game you can now increase to $110.&nbsp; The caveat here is you must be banking the winnings.&nbsp; Just because you won $500 doesn&rsquo;t mean you have $500 unless you added it to your bankroll.</li></ul>&nbsp;Before getting into some more advanced strategies I use to determine my bet sizing I want you to understand the bullet points above and why I think sports betting risk management is important.Almost everyone who has bet on sports for any significant amount of time, myself included, has chased a bad streak and bet way more than they should be betting to &ldquo;get it all back&rdquo;.&nbsp; Back in 1997, I was betting games for $50 to $100 a game.&nbsp; It was very recreational.&nbsp; Based on my rules above I was still betting more than I really could afford to bet but on a per-game basis, it really didn&rsquo;t seem like a lot.One bored Tuesday night I decided to play some NBA.&nbsp; I forget the exact game but I know it was a bad beat that started to put me on tilt.&nbsp; I was only down $55 on Wednesday but I was determined to get it back.&nbsp; Of course, I lost on Wednesday and Thursday and was now down approximately $500.&nbsp; While I had the $500 I really wasn&rsquo;t keen on parting with it.&nbsp; I thought perhaps I could bet some NHL favorites on the money line to get my $500 back.&nbsp; Now mind you I did not follow hockey very closely and I had never bet on the NHL before but this was my master plan to get back to even.&nbsp; I call in my 3 NHL ML favorite bets for $200 each.&nbsp; Surely they would all win and I could get back to even, or close to it, and then bet my $50-$100 again as if nothing happened.&nbsp; In case you could not guess they all lost.I was now down over the limit I could bet per game.&nbsp; I think it was only $500 and they allowed me to go up to $1000 which was still less than I owed.&nbsp; I was watching the NHL games lose at a bar with some friends.&nbsp; As the drinks flowed I started to pump myself up for the 2 Saturday NFL games that were being played the next day.&nbsp; The Giants were hosting the Redskins in the early game.&nbsp; By the time 3 AM rolled around I was confident the Giants would roll Washington.&nbsp; The plan was to put $1000 on the Giants and that would get me back to a number just a couple of days earlier I was pissed about owing.&nbsp; But hey it is all about perspective.In my early 20&rsquo;s waking up early after a night of drinking without setting an alarm was never happening.&nbsp; This Saturday was no different.&nbsp; I woke up at 12:35 PM and the Giants kicked off at 12:30 PM.&nbsp; I tried calling the bookie but they would not take the action.&nbsp; As the Giants were rolling on their way to a 30-10 win I sat there depressed that I finally had the winner and I missed the bet.A buddy of mine had an uncle who was a bookmaker working in Aruba.&nbsp; He would on occasion let us know who the sharp guys liked.&nbsp; I needed his help now more than ever.&nbsp; I called Uncle Dino and asked him who the sharps liked.&nbsp; He tells me they are on Kentucky in college hoops.&nbsp; Kentucky was a 17 point favorite over Georgia Tech at home.&nbsp; The game started at 2:00 PM.&nbsp; I decide I will put $500 on Kentucky to cover on the advice of Uncle Dino.&nbsp; I do not believe at any point in the game was Kentucky covering the 17.&nbsp; They wound up winning by 14.&nbsp; The hole had been dug even deeper.I had no opinion of the second NFL game of the day New England and Pittsburgh.&nbsp; I tried Dino again.&nbsp; He said the sharps aren&rsquo;t taking the game but every sucker likes Pittsburgh +2.&nbsp; Looks like the Patriots will be bailing me out.&nbsp; I call the bookie and ask if I can put $1500 on the game.&nbsp; They allow it.&nbsp; I take the Patriots -2 for $1500.&nbsp; Up 21-13, Drew Bledsoe is facing a 3rd and 7 with just over 2 minutes left in the game at midfield.&nbsp; The Steelers call their final timeout.&nbsp; The situation screamed for a pass to get the first down and end the game.&nbsp; I turn to my buddy and said, we need a pass but let it be over the middle in case it is picked so less chance they can return it.&nbsp; No sooner do I say it Bledsoe gets picked on the sideline and nearly returned for a TD.&nbsp; There was an illegal forward pitch on the return so the ball ends up on the 18-yard line.&nbsp; I do not know why but I was still optimistic. Even if they scored they still needed to convert the 2 pts or else I push and if they convert I can win in OT.&nbsp; With 38 seconds to go 3rd and goal from the 1, Kordell Stewart passes to TE Mark Bruener for the 1 yard TD.&nbsp; The two-point conversion was successful and we were heading to OT.&nbsp; My hopes of winning the coin flip were quickly erased and the Steelers would get the ball first.&nbsp; Now I needed a stop.&nbsp; The Steelers would start on their own 26-yard line.&nbsp; First down was incomplete.&nbsp; They ran it to Bettis on second down for a 5-yard loss.&nbsp; I am feeling really good now.&nbsp; We are going to stop them and get good field position to win this game.&nbsp; 3rd and 15 from the 21 Stewart connects with Courtney Hawkins for 41 yards and right on the cusp of FG range.&nbsp; Pitt would move the ball 25 more yards to make the game-winning chip shot FG and crush me yet again.&nbsp; After that game, I made the smartest move I had all week and that was to call it quits and pay off what I owed.&nbsp; It would be months before I would bet a game again because I did not have the funds to do so.That story is funny in retrospect and many of you have your own similar stories.&nbsp; The key point of it is how starting with a $50 bet can snowball into betting $1500 just to break even or minimize the losses.&nbsp; Chasing a bad streak can get costly very quickly.&nbsp; Since that time I learned to be much more disciplined.&nbsp; And certainly doing it professionally you are either disciplined or you will go broke very quickly.&nbsp; In my story above I had no set bankroll so I am not sure even a $50 bet was the proper bet size for me.&nbsp; But I know $200 wasn&rsquo;t and $1500 was probably more than I was willing to risk for the season let alone one game.&nbsp; For argument&rsquo;s sake, let&rsquo;s say I had a $2000 bankroll.&nbsp; I should have been betting $40 per game.&nbsp; The bad beat on Tuesday would have had me down $44.&nbsp; By Friday I would have been down $132.&nbsp; I wouldn&rsquo;t have chased with the NHL games that I knew little about.&nbsp; Assuming I wake up at a decent hour I put $44 on the giants and win to knock my total to -$88.&nbsp; I never touch Kentucky or the Patriots because I would not be searching for a game to get me out of a major hole.&nbsp; I am not sure how I would have fared on Sunday in the NFL but there is a decent chance I would have been able to get close to even if not make a few bucks.&nbsp; Instead, the lack of discipline caused me to lose over $3000 and quit doing something I enjoyed doing.I said I would give some more advanced techniques I use when it comes to bet sizing.&nbsp; In my rules above I said you should be betting to WIN 1 unit, not risk.&nbsp; The reason for this is there may be great value in a +2000 bet but it still won&rsquo;t win very often.&nbsp; Risking 1 unit on something that will happen once in 20 tries is a good way to go broke quickly.Some of the most money I have ever made in sports betting was on the World Cup in 2014.&nbsp; The biggest winner I had was on Costa Rica to win their Group.&nbsp; My numbers did not think Costa Rica would win but it showed the price being offered was better than it should have been.&nbsp; In other words, there was value there.&nbsp; The line to win the group was +4000.&nbsp; I estimated their likelihood of winning the group at 10%.&nbsp; &nbsp;At 40 to 1 the market was giving them a 2.43% chance to win.&nbsp; Even if my numbers were correct there was a pretty high probability they were not going to win.&nbsp; But I have a huge edge here and when I see an edge I exploit it.&nbsp; The primary reason for this edge was who comprised the group with Costa Rica.&nbsp; They were put in with England, Italy, and Uruguay.&nbsp; Basically 3 teams with championship dreams and Costa Rica.&nbsp; But because the public overvalues these big names we found value in a country nobody expected anything from.Let&rsquo;s look the way I played this and how I play all money line bets in which I have a perceived edge.Firstly I want to figure out how much of an edge I have.&nbsp; I like to figure out my expected value.&nbsp; I will go into more detail on expected value in a future post but essentially it was what you can expect to win or lose each time you play this scenario.To make it easy we will use a unit size of $1,000 and at 40 to 1 the risk would normally be $25 to win $1000$1000 * 10%(my probability to win) &ndash; $25 * 90%(my probability to lose) = $77.5Over time I can expect to make $77.5 on this bet.&nbsp; That is a pretty nice return on $25 of risk.&nbsp; Because of this, I want to play a bit more aggressively.&nbsp; Typically you will not see an edge this large.&nbsp; I am usually looking for a 5% edge or more before I play a game.&nbsp; But in this case, I had a 310% edge.&nbsp; Depending upon how much risk you want to take on you need to figure out how much more you will play based on the edge you have.&nbsp; The riskiest strategy I would employ is for every 5% of edge you increase by 1 unit to win.&nbsp; If we had an edge of 10% the bet size would double to $50.&nbsp; This actually works fairly well most of the time because finding edges much greater than 10-20% are tough to come by.&nbsp; But in a situation like this, I would actually be risking 1.55x my unit size on a 40 to 1 bet.&nbsp; That is just too much risk for me.&nbsp; You could change the ratio of edge to unit size increase.&nbsp; Perhaps every 10% or 20% increase in edge constitutes an increase in 1 unit to win.&nbsp; Or you can cap it at a certain amount.&nbsp; For this bet, I capped my risk at $200 which is 8x what a normal bet would be.&nbsp; What also needed to be factored in was I would be betting on CR to advance as well as most games have them as a win bet.&nbsp; So, on the whole, I had a lot of risk on one team.Costa Rica wound up winning their group.&nbsp; My European colleagues thought I was some sort of clairvoyant. Our Paris office wanted to know how I knew it would happen.&nbsp; &nbsp;In actuality, I didn&rsquo;t know they would win.&nbsp; I just knew the line was off. I was lucky that my 1 in 10 shot came in.&nbsp; &nbsp;The bets to have them advance obviously paid off as well as did the bets on their matches.That brings me to my portfolio risk.&nbsp; My background is in currency trading.&nbsp; With currencies, you are buying and selling one currency against another.&nbsp; If I am bullish on the Candian Dollar against the US Dollar and take positions backing my view I need to know what my total exposure is to Candian Dollar in my entire portfolio.&nbsp; Perhaps I am long against other currencies as well and I do not want to put too much risk on one currency.&nbsp; Factoring in your total risk on a side is important in determining bet sizing.&nbsp; If you like a side ATS as well as in a teaser and also in a parlay well a normal 1 unit bet on each is exposing you more than you want to be exposed on that side.&nbsp; You will have 3 units at risk when you really wanted approximately 1 unit.&nbsp; On the parlay assuming 2 teams at -110 that pays out +260 you will be risking enough to win 1 unit normally.&nbsp; That would be about .4 units.&nbsp; If one side is going to be played ATS and in a teaser maybe we cut that bet by 33%.&nbsp; We now have a risk of .07 units on the parlay with .33 units on the ATS and .33 on the teaser.&nbsp; The total risk on this side is now .73 units.There is obviously some leeway to exactly how you want to manage your risk but understand you actually have to manage your risk!&nbsp; These tips and examples will hopefully start you on the right path to profitability and longevity.

Bankroll Management - Beginner Level Lesson 3

Sports betting is more than just picking the right team. Get some tips on how to become a winning sports bettor from John &quot;Statsational&quot; Alesia. Learn sports betting strategies and tips to further your sports betting education.In this video✓Ego and its effects on your mental state✓Betting on softer early lines✓Why Do Lines Move?✓Bet on Sports not everyone else is betting on✓Have multiple sportsbooks✓Track your bets with a bet trackerSome other videos of interest<a href="https://youtu.be/5bd6jW30AmM" title="">Bankroll Management</a><a href="https://youtu.be/GNG_NXllmME" title="">Props 1</a><a href="https://youtu.be/6KAOx26hEB8" title="">Props 2</a>J<a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">oin the Sports Bet Army in Discord</a>

Sports Betting Tips and Strategies - Beginner Level Lesson 4

This article will be updated throughout the day as I get updates from the sportsbook that I have access to.&nbsp;Each section will be explained below, and the time will be added each time the Sharp Report is updated. You can use this information to make your own picks or tail the hot sections. Historically, Sharp bets, Whale plays, Model plays, and square have done very well. Keep in mind that this information comes from a sharp / market maker sportsbook, and the squares (public) playing there are more experienced than regular joe's betting on retail books; therefore, you can find success in tailing the public.&nbsp;You can find the Sharp Report performance tracker <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MHiDdyZ8MEDe2HwRXMPjDOwc8mAMZsaKm67NE2txIIM/edit?usp=sharing" title="">Here</a>Last update: 4:45 PM (EST) IN PROGRESS&nbsp;<h2>Sharp money plays:</h2>These are plays that the sharp bettors have been betting at the sportsbook. If you see a team in this section, there is sharp money on one side of the play. If you see a team being removed throughout the day, it means that sharp money came on the other side. NBA:MINNESOTA +1GOLDEN STATE -3.5LA LAKERS UNDER 232NHL:CBB:UMKC -1DELAWARE STATE +7.5ALABAMA STAE -1NFL:PHILADELPHIA +1<h2>Sportsbook liabilities:</h2>Updated around 4 pm, in this section, you will find the top plays that the book will be cheering for since they took large sums of money on the opposite teams. I know the house always wins; however, this info comes from a sharp book, and these plays have been the most consistent when they are faded, especially when there is no public interest on the other side. NBA:DALLAS -8.5NHL:CBB:SOUTH DAKOTA STATE +2NFL:<h2>Square top positions:</h2>This section will find picks that the public is heavy on. Even though they can have their hot streaks, It is a strategy to bet against the public most of the time. This section is updated around 4 pm also, the time to be able to gather enough data throughout the day. NBA:LA LAKERS +9TORONTO OVER 220.5NHL:CBB:MORGAN STATE +2ALABAMA STATE -2.5IOWA STATE -1.5NFL:<h2>Whale plays:&nbsp;</h2>The whale is one of the biggest bettors at the sportsbook. He's a sharp bettor with high betting limits and is highly respected.NHL, MLB, NFL, CFBCHICAGO STATE +3 15USOUTH CAROLINA STATE +11 15UALABAMA STATE -2 25UTEXAS -3 25U<h2>The top model plays:</h2>This section covers all the highest EV plays from my NHL, NBA, and MLB models.NHL, MLB, NFL, CFBOKC +5ORLANDO UNDER 233MINNESOTA +1GOOD LUCK TODAY Join <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games

Sharpreport

Find out the best sharp bets, book liabilities, model plays and public heavy positions. 

The Sharp Report for January 30, 2023

We were a Capitals victory away from hitting the parlay yesterday, they were ahead 1-0 after the 1st period both the wheels feel off after that and the Leafs took it 5-1.Val&rsquo;s Big Payday Parlay, pays +645Straight up Overall Record for the Big Payday Plays 514-716, -28.64 unitsWinnipeg Jets -.5 -141 (regulation)Two teams struggling at the moment face off in Winnipeg when the Jets host the Blues, the Blues have lost 4 straight while the Jets have lost 3 straight. Both teams are giving up a lot of goals while not scoring many which clearly isn&rsquo;t a good combination for success. The one thing the Jets have going for themselves is the fact that they have dominated the Blues for some time now. The Jets have won 7 of the last 10 meetings with the majority of the wins in comfortable fashion. I would normally back the Jets on the puckline in a situation like this but seeing that their offense isn&rsquo;t clicking as it normally does, I will back them in regulation. LA Lakers +9 -106The Lakers are in Brooklyn to face the Nets tonight and if you&rsquo;re a fan who bought tickets a while ago for this game you will be very disappointed in that you won&rsquo;t see Lebron or AD for the Lakers and obviously KD for the Nets whom has been out for a while now. So don&rsquo;t be surprised to get a large dose of R. Westbrook tonight; that will have the reigns of the offense to do as he pleases. It wouldn&rsquo;t surprise me at all if he gets close to a triple double tonight. Too often there is an overreaction to the line of a game when stars are held out; example last week when the Nuggets held out Jokic, Murray and KCP versus the Bucks, the line moved from 8 to 12.5 and guess what the Nuggets covered the 12.5. I see the same here tonight, people overreacting to the news. I think the Lakers behind Russ keep this game closer than most expect. OK City Thunder +5 -106The Warriors are in OKC to face the Thunder tonight, I get it that the Warriors have name recognition and on paper may be better than the Thunder but the last I checked the Warriors are still 6-18 on the road this season. More often than not they shouldn&rsquo;t have been favored in games on the road. Tonight they face probably one of the best young players in the NBA in SGA; he&rsquo;s been playing lights out as of late scoring 34 points or more in 4 straight games. I really think the Thunder have a chance to do what many home teams have done this season and that is beat the Warriors and even if they don&rsquo;t all they have to do is keep it within 5 points. Next, join your fellow sports enthusiasts in our chat.Join <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @mtlkid any questions you have on other games

Val’s Big Payday Parlay January 30th 2023

&quot;Top Props&quot; are my best props of the night.I take the DFS Army projections and run them through my model to figure out the probability of the corresponding prop going over or under. I added a column on the far right. This is the worst price I would take the prop at. Please let me know in <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> if you have any questions.'22-'23: +45 unitsLifetime: +157.3 units<table><tr><td>Player</td><td>TM</td><td>Stat</td><td>Proj</td><td>Prop</td><td>O/U</td><td>Juice</td><td>Book</td><td>Edge</td><td>At worst</td></tr><tr><td>Stephen Curry</td><td>GSW</td><td>A</td><td>5.35</td><td>6.5</td><td>U</td><td>-110</td><td>Draftkings</td><td>18.60%</td><td>-150</td></tr><tr><td>Damian Lillard</td><td>POR</td><td>REB</td><td>3.73</td><td>5.5</td><td>U</td><td>-142</td><td>Fanduel</td><td>23.90%</td><td>-200</td></tr></table>The new table function in the app can only go as wide as the screen. The screenshot of the model was very small. This should be easier to read. Use any of these links to sign up for a book in your state.<a href="https://dksb.sng.link/As9kz/4n7i?_dl=https%3A%2F%2Fsportsbook.draftkings.com%2Fgateway%3Fs%3D857632325%26wpcid%3D172660%26wpcn%3DNFL2021_5FTD1000DB_L7%26wpsrc%3DThe%2520Sharp%2520App%26wpcrid%3D&pcid=172660&pcn=NFL2021_5FTD1000DB_L7&psn=The+Sharp+App" title="">Draftkings</a><a href="http://wlfanduel.adsrv.eacdn.com/C.ashx?btag=a_23670b_2436c_&affid=15720&siteid=23670&adid=2436&c=" title="">FanDuel</a><a href="https://mediaserver.betmgmpartners.com/renderBanner.do?zoneId=1661954" title="">BetMGM</a><a href="https://wlwilliamhillus.adsrv.eacdn.com/C.ashx?btag=a_6582b_2486c_&affid=174&siteid=6582&adid=2486&c=" title="">Caesars</a><a href="https://record.pointsbetpartners.com/_AMQylzJwT-OO--BLE9QE82Nd7ZgqdRLk/7//?promo=SHARPAPP6" title="">PointsBet</a><a href="https://www.nj.bet365.com/olp/open-account?affiliate=365_01116083" title="">BET365</a>

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Top Props  - NBA January 30, 2023 +45 units this season

<h5>We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible. </h5><h5>Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often. Would you like to unlock all my VIP picks? Use promo code AnthonyP and get 1 month free or Join our free <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> server and ask @anthony p any questions you have.NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 30, 2023</h5><img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/6OQOFVbStLqpwa6w3AOdN9/b32affcb16d07544dde625cb8f75b533/Screenshot_20230130_123003.png"/>We've got a busy night in the NBA. The model likes 2 sides and 2 totals. The total in Philadelphia is now 230.5 and it only dropped 1/2 point from its opening. The model has this game at 221. The other total is under 241.5 in San Antonio. This total moved from 234.5 to 241.5 and it started moving up with the news that Porzingis is probable tonight. My projection is at 231 therefore a 10 pt gap gives up close to 11% EV. The 76ers offense is leading the NBA in the last 14 days with 128 pts per game while Orlando is sporting the 21st-worst defense. Philadephia is leading the NBA with 63% of their games going over and we might see this trend continue tonight with both teams hitting the over in 16 of their last 20 combined games. Since Harden got injured it messed up the numbers for the 76ers but since he's back the over has been an ATM machine. I don't agree with the model here. Given San Antonio's league-worst defense and fast-paced playing style, it's hard to support the under any time they play. The under the total cashed in only in 36% of their games this year. They are dead last in aDRTG and allowing close to 130 pts per game in the last 2 weeks. The over is 8-2 in their last 10 games and 8-1 in the last 9 meetings versus the Wizards. 242 is a lot but it makes it almost impossible to consider the under when a defense is allowing 130 pts per game. OKC and Minnesota are 2 sides the model is liking tonight. I covered the Thunder in the Overnight Grind. As for the Minnesota value, this is a weird game for me to handicap because every I bet on either team I lose. Momentum is definitely on the T'Wolves winning and covering their last 3 games and the squares are surprisingly not behind them. Rudy Gobert has been listed as questionable for tonight's game, but he's played in the past four games for Minnesota (averaging over 30 min per game) therefore I would say he's going to play tonight and the line movement hasn't told us otherwise. Minnesota is not known for their defensive play however in the last 2 weeks they rank 6th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Gobert's presence will be crucial in defending against Sacramento's paint-oriented offense therefore make sure he plays if you like Minnesota tonight. Join <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games

Anthony P's NBA Model January 30, 2023

<h5>We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible. </h5><h5>Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often. Would you like to unlock all my VIP picks? Use promo code AnthonyP and get 1 month free or Join our free <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> server and ask @anthony p any questions you have.NHL BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 30, 2023</h5><img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/4QxhVTRvTnBrp7L6vp6iw9/3fd3cd1d28761b0f38e181129502ff9d/Screenshot_20230130_120453.png"/>And we are back for another crazy week in the NHL. Wait... not really... we have one game tonight, 3 tomorrow, 2 on Wednesday, and then the NHL goes on vacation and back on February 6th. I really love it when a sport takes some time off. I do the same and reset for the second half of the season. In the model, I've added tomorrow's games also. I felt cheap just sharing 1 game. The Blues are showing close to 8% at +196. Coach Bowness ripped through the Jets after an effortless game against the Flyers 2 nights ago and we can expect the Jets to come out strong tonight after losing 3 straight. But will they? They are 2-4 in this last 6 barely scoring 2.5 GF/G. The Blues are 1-3 in their last 4 and allowing a league-leading 4.25 GA/G since Jan 17th. St Louis might be without Thomas tonight and they will be very thin at center ice with O'Reilly out until mid-February. The Jets are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings and the advantage in goaltending clearly goes to Winnipeg. I expect the Jets to win tonight with superior goaltending and this weak-ass Blues defense that can't stop a beach ball right now. Join the conversation for free in our discord server and ask me how you can get a free month of the Sharp AppJoin <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games

Anthony P's NHL Model January 30, 2023

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year. We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL. For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start. Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight. RECAP of yesterday's games: I hope everyone had a great weekend. On the 27th we went 1-1. Minnesota took care of business versus the Grizzlies but unfortunately, the Stars lost in OT to the Devils that were playing on b2b night. It will be quiet in the NHL and things will go back to normal after the all-star break. In the NBA we have a busy slate with a couple of games getting big moves. Before we dig into the games, let's chat a little Superbowl. The line movement was crazy last night. At the book, they opened the Chiefs at -1 at around 8 pm, and sharp money flooded on the Eagles moving the line all the way to -2.5. There was no buyback on the Chief however the line moved down a little and settled to -2. The Warriors opened at -2.5 yesterday and moved to -4.5. Wiggins didn't play versus the Raptors but he's probable for tonight's games. I don't agree with the move and OKC is a strong model play. OKC has been mentioned in many of my articles as of late and it won't be any different today. First, the Warriors are on the road and we all know how bad they've been. Second, apart from that debacle against the Hawks, the Thunder are 10th in points allowed per 100 possession and second in the spread differential in the last 2 weeks. Lastly, the Thunder are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Sharps vs model in this one. We have a massive drop in the total in Phoenix. I don't even know if this is still payable. We don't have any sharp interest at the book however global markets moved the total therefore it's safe to say that sharp money landed on the under in Phoenix. The total opened at 228 last night and was hit all night and morning and settled at 220.5. Despite missing key players, the Suns are 3rd in defense in the last 2 weeks while the Raptor's offense is 6th with 123.1 pts per game. Both teams are at the bottom of pace metrics with the 5th and 9th lowest amount of possessions per 48 minutes and we usually see the total go under with slow-paced teams. My model has this game at 222. To recap: Golden State -4.5, Toronto under 220.5Good luck todayWould you like to unlock all my VIP picks? Use promo code AnthonyP and get 1 month free or Join our free Discord server and ask @anthony p any questions you have.Join <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games

Overnightgrind

While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 30, 2023

<h4>Each week, Statsational will go over his NFL Power Rankings to bring you up to speed on the numbers. Are your eyes deceiving you, or are the numbers wrong? Let us know in the Discord chat. </h4>The ratings are based on each team vs. the average team in the league. You can use the rating differential of two teams and add the Home Field Advantage to get an idea of where the model likes the spread for that game. I would use this as a guide, not your final say on a game. We have a lot of models and tools for you to help with your handicapping, and this is one of them.<table><tr><td>Key</td></tr><tr><td>Power Rating - The higher the number, the better the team ranks. The differential in 2 teams can be compared to a pt spread on a neutral site.</td></tr><tr><td>SOS - Strength Of Schedule</td></tr><tr><td>Defense Rating - How many expected points are to be given up against an average team</td></tr><tr><td>Offense Rating - How many points are expected to be scored against an average team</td></tr></table>I previously wrote an article on futures bets here at the Sharp App before the playoffs started. Philadelphia was one of our bets, while Kansas City wasn't. To make a profit, we need Philadelphia to win. I'll be analyzing key stats in this game to determine who I think is the best bet in this game now that we have the final teams left. We will also do some prop betting analysis. Look out for my articles this week.<h3>After Championship GamesThe current HFA is 2.24. I expect it to be 1.75 by year's end.</h3><table><tr><td>Rank</td><td>Teams</td><td>Power Rating</td><td>SOS</td><td>Defense Rating</td><td>Offense Rating</td><td>W</td><td>L</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Philadelphia</td><td>32.48</td><td>24.75</td><td>18.21</td><td>25.39</td><td>16</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Buffalo</td><td>31.79</td><td>25.74</td><td>18.52</td><td>24.96</td><td>14</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Kansas City</td><td>31.20</td><td>25.08</td><td>20.48</td><td>26.25</td><td>16</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>San Francisco</td><td>30.97</td><td>24.89</td><td>17.31</td><td>22.91</td><td>15</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Cincinnati</td><td>29.98</td><td>26.64</td><td>20.00</td><td>24.28</td><td>14</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Dallas</td><td>29.61</td><td>25.30</td><td>19.73</td><td>23.77</td><td>13</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Baltimore</td><td>27.58</td><td>26.28</td><td>18.91</td><td>20.85</td><td>10</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Miami</td><td>26.87</td><td>26.51</td><td>21.69</td><td>22.93</td><td>9</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Jacksonville</td><td>26.62</td><td>24.98</td><td>21.31</td><td>22.36</td><td>10</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Cleveland</td><td>25.97</td><td>25.99</td><td>21.60</td><td>22.00</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Washington</td><td>25.90</td><td>25.60</td><td>18.27</td><td>18.75</td><td>8</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Detroit</td><td>25.84</td><td>25.59</td><td>23.77</td><td>24.19</td><td>9</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>New England</td><td>25.83</td><td>25.84</td><td>19.32</td><td>19.58</td><td>8</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>NY Jets</td><td>25.73</td><td>26.33</td><td>17.67</td><td>17.83</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>New Orleans</td><td>25.50</td><td>25.30</td><td>19.43</td><td>19.36</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>LA Chargers</td><td>25.50</td><td>24.84</td><td>21.80</td><td>21.67</td><td>10</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>Green Bay</td><td>25.26</td><td>25.37</td><td>20.45</td><td>20.14</td><td>8</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>Pittsburgh</td><td>25.14</td><td>26.52</td><td>19.06</td><td>18.62</td><td>9</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>Tampa Bay</td><td>24.82</td><td>25.94</td><td>20.37</td><td>19.69</td><td>8</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>Seattle</td><td>24.49</td><td>25.41</td><td>23.37</td><td>22.36</td><td>9</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>NY Giants</td><td>24.39</td><td>25.79</td><td>21.38</td><td>20.20</td><td>10</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>LasVegas</td><td>23.99</td><td>24.96</td><td>23.57</td><td>21.98</td><td>6</td><td>11</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>Minnesota</td><td>23.82</td><td>25.41</td><td>24.19</td><td>22.65</td><td>13</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>Denver</td><td>23.22</td><td>25.03</td><td>19.87</td><td>17.52</td><td>5</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>Atlanta</td><td>22.75</td><td>25.10</td><td>22.89</td><td>20.21</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td>Carolina</td><td>22.72</td><td>25.22</td><td>21.86</td><td>19.15</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>27</td><td>Tennessee</td><td>22.22</td><td>25.55</td><td>20.59</td><td>17.24</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>28</td><td>Arizona</td><td>21.99</td><td>25.76</td><td>23.12</td><td>19.53</td><td>4</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>29</td><td>LA Rams</td><td>21.90</td><td>26.04</td><td>20.61</td><td>17.08</td><td>5</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>Indianapolis</td><td>20.43</td><td>25.04</td><td>22.53</td><td>17.39</td><td>4</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>31</td><td>Chicago</td><td>19.95</td><td>26.15</td><td>23.79</td><td>18.32</td><td>3</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>32</td><td>Houston</td><td>18.30</td><td>25.19</td><td>23.63</td><td>16.35</td><td>3</td><td>13</td></tr></table>Join your fellow sports enthusiasts in our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq " title="">Discord </a>chat

Statsational Super Bowl Power Rankings

<h5>As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.I will post my models for upcoming Soccer matchups as often as possible. Because of the manual work, I will try and stay in the big leagues. On slow days I will add in some of the smaller leagues worldwide.Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis), I tend to be slightly leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often. I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match,</h5><h5> but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.Today's lines are taken from Draftkings</h5><h4>January 30</h4><table><tr><td>Teams</td><td>Proj Score</td><td>Actual Line</td><td>Sharp App Line</td><td>EDGE</td></tr><tr><td>Villarreal</td><td>1.78</td><td>-155</td><td>-168</td><td>2%</td></tr><tr><td>Rayo Vallecano</td><td>0.78</td><td>390</td><td>546</td><td>-5%</td></tr><tr><td>Draw</td><td> </td><td>280</td><td>357</td><td>-4%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td>Teams</td><td>Proj Score</td><td>Actual Line</td><td>Sharp App Line</td><td>EDGE</td></tr><tr><td>Udinese</td><td>1.56</td><td>-115</td><td>-105</td><td>-2%</td></tr><tr><td>Verona</td><td>0.97</td><td>300</td><td>376</td><td>-4%</td></tr><tr><td>Draw</td><td> </td><td>245</td><td>259</td><td>-1%</td></tr></table>

Statsational Soccer January 30, 2023

This article will be updated throughout the day as I get updates from the sportsbook that I have access to.&nbsp;Each section will be explained below, and the time will be added each time the Sharp Report is updated. You can use this information to make your own picks or tail the hot sections. Historically, Sharp bets, Whale plays, Model plays, and square have done very well. Keep in mind that this information comes from a sharp / market maker sportsbook, and the squares (public) playing there are more experienced than regular joe's betting on retail books; therefore, you can find success in tailing the public.&nbsp;<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/23bg0YGVy8TbU1zo7VVObY/53fa8f971dba82ea812f1d2f1f242344/Screenshot_20230129_093311.png"/>You can find the Sharp Report performance tracker <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MHiDdyZ8MEDe2HwRXMPjDOwc8mAMZsaKm67NE2txIIM/edit?usp=sharing" title="">Here</a>Last update: 1:45 PM (EST) IN PROGRESS&nbsp;I added about half a unit yesterday with my CBB plays. I was waiting to sweep the last 2 plays to drop a 3 dimer but that didn't happen. The 3 dimer won, I was upset but reminded myself that disciple pays off more in the long run. Sharp money went 9-8 for +0.19 units. Fading the book took a massive beating yesterday and the numbers are off the charts for January. 4-12 yesterday, 24-36 last 7 days. Fading the squares returned close to 19 units in January but yesterday was not a good day going 5-8. Enjoy the football games today! <h2>Sharp money plays:</h2>These are plays that the sharp bettors have been betting at the sportsbook. If you see a team in this section, there is sharp money on one side of the play. If you see a team being removed throughout the day, it means that sharp money came on the other side. NBA:MIAMI -4MILWAUKEE -8NHL:CAROLINA -121CBB:SMU -1WICHITA STATE -3IUPUI +18NFL:PHILADELPHIA -1.5<h2>Sportsbook liabilities:</h2>Updated around 4 pm, in this section, you will find the top plays that the book will be cheering for since they took large sums of money on the opposite teams. I know the house always wins; however, this info comes from a sharp book, and these plays have been the most consistent when they are faded, especially when there is no public interest on the other side. NBA:NHL:CAROLINA -128CBB:MICHIGAN STATE +8FAIRFIELD -2.5GEORGETOWN +10ILLINOIS CHICAGO +10.5BELMONT +1SMU -3NFL:SAN FRANCISCO +3<h2>Square top positions:</h2>This section will find picks that the public is heavy on. Even though they can have their hot streaks, It is a strategy to bet against the public most of the time. This section is updated around 4 pm also, the time to be able to gather enough data throughout the day. NBA:MIAMI -6LA CLIPPERS +8NHL:TORONTO -145BOSTON +105CBB:LEHIGH -2WICHITA STATE OVER 132.5ST JOSEPH OVER 138.5PROVIDENCE OVER 138.5MICHIGAN STATE OVER 130.5NFL:PHILADELPHIA -2.5CINCINNATI +1<h2>Whale plays:&nbsp;</h2>The whale is one of the biggest bettors at the sportsbook. He's a sharp bettor with high betting limits and is highly respected.NHL, MLB, NFL, CFBIUPUI +18 15U<h2>The top model plays:</h2>This section covers all the highest EV plays from my NHL, NBA, and MLB models.NHL, MLB, NFL, CFBGOOD LUCK TODAY Join <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games

The Sharp Report for January 29, 2023

I liked Cincinnati immediately following the games on Sunday, but I held off on placing a bet on them. I knew the public would like Cincinnati as well, but how about the Sharps? Well, we are not seeing any sharp money on one side or the other according to the Sharp Report but I was correct that the public would come in on Cincinnati. With the public backing the Bengals it is curious that this line continues to move in favor of Kansas City. That typically means sharp money. The handles show that this might be the case. We will keep an eye on Anthony and the Sharp Report as the day goes on for more information. As of now I am staying away.Make sure to join our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">discord</a> if you have not already.Be sure to subscribe on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfyGwPle0ikwIk1ggdUaq6Q" title="">YouTube</a> and click the bell to get notified whenever we post new content.

AFC Championship The Public Is On The Bengals But Where Is The Money?

Their last head-to-head matchup was a low scoring slugfest. In Week 17 of 2022 the Bengals won on the road beating the Bills 7-3. Cincinnati entered that game as a 2.5 point road underog. They had an implied win probablity of only 44% before pulling of the upset. The Game Total for that game was 51.0 and which the Under hit.Buffalo's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #1 in football at 5.04 yards per carry. What makes the Bills run game success all the more noteworthy is how often they've faced a stacked box: 13.2% of the time, the #7-most of any team. Try as opposing defensives might to put an extra body near the line of scrimmage, Buffalo hasn't been thwarted. Given their ground game success, this has opened up opportunities through the air too; Buffalo's 7.58 yards per target puts them #7 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Bills check in at #1 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 208 yards per game against Buffalo this year (#12 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 against them with 4.34 yards per ground attempt. This Bills defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 32 yards per game (#2-best in the league). Buffalo's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 148 yards per game (#9-worst in the league).Cincinnati's biggest strength has been their passing offense, ranking #5 in the league with 276 yards per game through the air. In terms of their defense, the Bengals have ranked #3 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 206 yards per game through the air against them (#9 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #5 with 4.24 yards per carry. Cincinnati has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 35 yards per game (#3-best). Cincinnati has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 77.7% completion rate (#3-highest).<h2>Cincinnati Bengals Insights</h2><ul><li>The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.</li><li>Ja'Marr Chase has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (97.0 per game) than he did last season (105.0 per game).</li><li>The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.</li></ul><h2>Buffalo Bills Insights</h2><ul><li>The Sharp Model projects Josh Allen to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (30.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).</li><li>The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.</li><li>The Sharp Model projects Stefon Diggs to notch 0.67 receiving touchdowns in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The Buffalo Bills have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)</li><li>The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.25 Units / 23% ROI)</li><li>Tee Higgins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.05 Units / 56% ROI)</li></ul>

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Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills Matchup Preview - January 22nd, 2023

The last time these two teams played each other was Week 18 in 2022. That game resulted in a home win for the Eagles with a final score of 22-16. Although the Eagles recorded the win, they failed to cover the -16.5 point spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 42.5 and which the Under hit.<h2>New York Giants Insights</h2><ul><li>Marcus Johnson has totaled far fewer air yards this season (16.0 per game) than he did last season (25.0 per game).</li><li>The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.</li></ul><h2>Philadelphia Eagles Insights</h2><ul><li>The New York Giants defensive tackles project as the best unit in the league this year with their pass rush.</li><li>The Sharp Model projects Jalen Hurts to rush for 0.68 touchdowns in this week's contest, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games (+4.65 Units / 8% ROI)</li><li>The New York Giants have scored last in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.85 Units / 44% ROI)</li><li>DeVonta Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 72% ROI)</li></ul>

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New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Preview - January 21st, 2023

Sunday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Dallas Cowboys (12-5) and San Francisco 49ers (13-4). Oddsmakers peg the 49ers as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 64%, leaving the Cowboys with a 36% chance to record a win. The current spread is the 49ers -3.5 with a Game Total of 46.5.It would be great to say something notable about Dallas, but they been about as unremarkable as a team can be this season. Offensively, they rank #12 in the league in yards per game (351). They haven't been strong or deficient in either facet of their offense, ranking #16 in passing yards per game (231) and #16 in yards per carry (4.4). They've been middle of the pack on defense as well, ranking #15 in yards allowed per game (339). Pass defense and run defense? You guessed it: #15 and #11 in the NFL, respectively. For all the good it's done them, the Cowboys like to lean on the run, keeping it on the ground for 43.5% of their play calls in a neutral context, #9-most in football. It's worth noting that they've run a very up-tempo offense this year. They've averaged 26.58 seconds per play, #4-fastest in the league. Perhaps of note is that they've no-huddle on offense (excluding plays run inside the two-minute warning) on 12.6% of their plays this year, #9-most in the league. Keeping a winded defense on the field (and unable to swap into different packages) can provide an advantage to an offense and at least keep them at a serviceable level. In terms of their offense, the Cowboys have ranked #12 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 231 yards per game (#16 in football). On the ground they've ranked #16 with 4.4 yards per carry.San Francisco's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #2 in football at 4.97 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. To that point, San Francisco's line ranks #8-best in the league in run blocking. Given their ground game success, this has opened up opportunities through the air too; San Francisco's 7.97 yards per target puts them #2 in football. When it comes to their defense, the 49ers check in at #2 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 227 yards per game against San Francisco this year (#21 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #2 against them with 3.53 yards per ground attempt. This 49ers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 4.28 yards per target (#1-best in the league). San Francisco's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 158 yards per game (#5-worst in the league).<h2>Dallas Cowboys Insights</h2><ul><li>The San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in football this year when it comes to run defense.</li><li>The San Francisco 49ers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.87 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the NFL.</li></ul><h2>San Francisco 49ers Insights</h2><ul><li>The Sharp Model projects Brock Purdy to be a more important option in his offense's run game this week (8.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.9% in games he has played).</li><li>George Kittle has totaled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (57.0).</li><li>The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The San Francisco 49ers have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 69% ROI)</li><li>The Dallas Cowboys have scored first in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.40 Units / 29% ROI)</li><li>Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 48% ROI)</li></ul>

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Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers Matchup Preview - January 22nd, 2023

Saturday the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) will battle the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3). Oddsmakers peg the Chiefs as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 81%, leaving the Jaguars with a 19% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Chiefs -9.5 with a Game Total of 52.0.<h2>Jacksonville Jaguars Insights</h2><ul><li>The forecast calls for light rain in this game... which usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.</li><li>Evan Engram has accumulated quite a few more air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).</li><li>The Sharp Model projects Travis Etienne to rush for 0.55 TDs in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.</li></ul><h2>Kansas City Chiefs Insights</h2><ul><li>The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.</li><li>The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.</li><li>The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has not been good when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.39 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Team Total Under in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 90% ROI)</li><li>The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored last in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.15 Units / 49% ROI)</li><li>Christian Kirk has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)</li></ul>

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Preview - January 21st, 2023

Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks faceoff against Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers enter the game as a huge favorite (-490) as the home team. San Francisco is currently favored by -9.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 42.0.San Francisco's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #2 in football at 4.97 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. To that point, San Francisco's line ranks #8-best in the league in run blocking. Given their ground game success, this has opened up opportunities through the air too; San Francisco's 7.97 yards per target puts them #2 in football. When it comes to their defense, the 49ers check in at #2 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 227 yards per game against San Francisco this year (#21 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #2 against them with 3.53 yards per ground attempt. This 49ers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 4.28 yards per target (#1-best in the league). San Francisco's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 158 yards per game (#5-worst in the league).Seattle's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #30 in the league while allowing 380 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #6-most yards per carry: 5.14. That's not to give any unnecessary credit to their pass defense, though, which checks in at #9-worst in yards per target (7.98). What makes Seattle's issues all the more troublesome is that they've struggled in spite of stacking the box with an extra defender 19.9% of the time -- #7-most of any team in football. The Seahawks defensive ends have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #7-worst in the NFL by this measure. This represents a particular disadvantage for Seattle given that the 49ers have excelled in the run game this year, accumulating 4.97 yards per carry (#2-best in the league). In terms of their offense, the Seahawks have ranked #7 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 256 yards per game (#8 in football). On the ground they've ranked #7 with 4.77 yards per carry.<h2>Seattle Seahawks Insights</h2><ul><li>The Sharp Model projects Geno Smith to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game this week (18.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.4% in games he has played).</li><li>DK Metcalf has compiled significantly more air yards this season (103.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).</li><li>The San Francisco 49ers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.87 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.</li></ul><h2>San Francisco 49ers Insights</h2><ul><li>The forecast calls for light rain in this game... which generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.</li><li>The Seattle Seahawks safeties rank as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.</li><li>The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.80 Units / 48% ROI)</li><li>The Seattle Seahawks have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+2.55 Units / 28% ROI)</li><li>Geno Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 64% ROI)</li></ul>

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Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers Matchup Preview - January 14th, 2023

The last time these two teams played each other was Week 1 in 2022. That game resulted in a home win for the Buccaneers with a final score of 19-3. The Buccaneers entered that game as a slight road favorite. They were favored by 2.5 points before covering the spread. The Game Total for that game was 49.5 and which the Under hit.It would be great to say something notable about Dallas, but they been about as unremarkable as a team can be this season. Offensively, they rank #12 in the league in yards per game (351). They haven't been strong or deficient in either facet of their offense, ranking #16 in passing yards per game (231) and #16 in yards per carry (4.4). They've been middle of the pack on defense as well, ranking #15 in yards allowed per game (339). Pass defense and run defense? You guessed it: #15 and #11 in the NFL, respectively. For all the good it's done them, the Cowboys like to lean on the run, keeping it on the ground for 43.5% of their play calls in a neutral context, #9-most in football. It's worth noting that they've run a very up-tempo offense this year. They've averaged 26.58 seconds per play, #4-fastest in the league. Perhaps of note is that they've no-huddle on offense (excluding plays run inside the two-minute warning) on 12.6% of their plays this year, #9-most in the league. Keeping a winded defense on the field (and unable to swap into different packages) can provide an advantage to an offense and at least keep them at a serviceable level. In terms of their offense, the Cowboys have ranked #12 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 231 yards per game (#16 in football). On the ground they've ranked #16 with 4.4 yards per carry.Tampa Bay's primary disadvantage this season has been their rushing offense, which has ranked #32 in football with a low 3.69 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, their line ranks #5-worst in the league in run blocking. Perhaps because they routinely failt to successfully establish the run, Tampa Bay has also lacked effectiveness through the air. They've scraped together a measly 6.47 yards per target, ranking the bottom 10 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Buccaneers check in at #11 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 206 yards per game against Tampa Bay this year (#9 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #19 against them with 4.58 yards per ground attempt. This Buccaneers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 24 yards per game (#2-best in the league). Tampa Bay's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have caught 74.6% of their passes (#7-highest in the league).<h2>Dallas Cowboys Insights</h2><ul><li>The Sharp Model projects Dak Prescott to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (12.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.5% in games he has played).</li><li>Dak Prescott has thrown for many fewer yards per game (241.0) this season than he did last season (288.0).</li><li>The Dallas Cowboys have gone no-huddle on 12.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.</li></ul><h2>Tampa Bay Buccaneers Insights</h2><ul><li>The Sharp Model projects this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 143.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.</li><li>Mike Evans has notched quite a few more air yards this year (117.0 per game) than he did last year (102.0 per game).</li><li>The Sharp Model projects Mike Evans to accumulate 0.40 receiving touchdowns in this contest, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored first in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.70 Units / 39% ROI)</li><li>The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+6.15 Units / 10% ROI)</li><li>Tom Brady has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)</li></ul>

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Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Preview - January 16th, 2023

Sunday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Baltimore Ravens (10-7) and Cincinnati Bengals (12-4). Oddsmakers peg the Bengals as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 78%, leaving the Ravens with a 22% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bengals -8.0 with a Game Total of 40.0.Cincinnati's chief advantage has been their pass offense, which ranks #5 in the NFL at 276 yards per game through the air. When it comes to their defense, the Bengals check in at #3 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 206 yards per game against Cincinnati this year (#9 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #5 against them with 4.24 yards per ground attempt. This Bengals defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 35 yards per game (#3-best in the league). Cincinnati's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have caught 77.7% of their passes (#3-highest in the league).Baltimore's biggest strength has been their run defense, which ranks #3 in the league while allowing just 4.01 yards per carry this season. They've succeeded in stopping the run (in part) because of their aggressiveness in stacking the box. They've brought up a safety or extra defender 18.8% of the time this year, #10-most of any team in football. The Ravens safeties have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #5-best in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Ravens have ranked #26 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 195 yards per game (#28 in football). On the ground they've ranked #4 with 4.88 yards per carry.<h2>Baltimore Ravens Insights</h2><ul><li>The Sharp Model projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.</li><li>Mark Andrews has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (79.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).</li><li>The Sharp Model projects Mark Andrews to accrue 0.28 receiving touchdowns in this game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.</li></ul><h2>Cincinnati Bengals Insights</h2><ul><li>The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.</li><li>The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best unit in football this year in regard to run defense.</li><li>The Baltimore Ravens defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in the NFL.</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The Baltimore Ravens have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)</li><li>Devin Duvernay has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.65 Units / 52% ROI)</li></ul>

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Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals Matchup Preview - January 15th, 2023

Sunday the Miami Dolphins (9-8) will battle the Buffalo Bills (13-3). Oddsmakers peg the Bills as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 88%, leaving the Dolphins with a 12% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bills -14.0 with a Game Total of 44.5.Buffalo's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #1 in football at 5.04 yards per carry. What makes the Bills run game success all the more noteworthy is how often they've faced a stacked box: 13.2% of the time, the #7-most of any team. Try as opposing defensives might to put an extra body near the line of scrimmage, Buffalo hasn't been thwarted. Given their ground game success, this has opened up opportunities through the air too; Buffalo's 7.58 yards per target puts them #7 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Bills check in at #1 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 208 yards per game against Buffalo this year (#12 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 against them with 4.34 yards per ground attempt. This Bills defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 32 yards per game (#2-best in the league). Buffalo's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 148 yards per game (#9-worst in the league).Miami's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #8 in the league with 354 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #6-best in football with 267 yards per game. It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 12.1% of the time against the Dolphins in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for Miami's offense to succeed through the air. In terms of their defense, the Dolphins have ranked #18 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 240 yards per game through the air against them (#27 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #10 with 4.41 yards per carry. Miami has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.64 yards per target (#8-best). Miami has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 81.8% completion rate (#1-highest).<h2>Miami Dolphins Insights</h2><ul><li>The Sharp Model projects Skylar Thompson to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game this week (10.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.4% in games he has played).</li><li>Jaylen Waddle's receiving efficiency has gotten better this year, notching 10.41 yards-per-target compared to just 7.47 figure last year.</li><li>The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.</li></ul><h2>Buffalo Bills Insights</h2><ul><li>The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 128.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.</li><li>Gabe Davis has posted many more air yards this season (95.0 per game) than he did last season (63.0 per game).</li><li>The Sharp Model projects Josh Allen to pass for 2.00 TDs in this week's game, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.80 Units / 37% ROI)</li><li>The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.70 Units / 34% ROI)</li><li>Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)</li></ul>

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Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Matchup Preview - January 15th, 2023

The last time these two teams played each other was Week 16 in 2022. That game resulted in a home win for the Vikings with a final score of 27-24. Although the Vikings recorded the win, they failed to cover the -4.5 point spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 48.5 and which the Over hit.Minnesota's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 389 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #2 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #2-most yards per game (268) against the Vikings. A big part of the problem is their inability to put pressure on the quarterback. It's taken them an average of 2.56 seconds after the snap before a defender gets close enough for the QB to feel it -- #3-slowest among all teams. Opposing wide receivers have given the Vikings the most trouble, posting 176 yards per game against this defense (#2-worst in football). Minnesota's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their safeties, who rank just #24 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. When it comes to their offense, the Vikings check in at #4 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 279 yards per game (#4 in football). Their run game has ranked #23 with 4.12 yards per attempt on the ground.New York's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #25 in the league while allowing 361 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #4-most yards per carry: 5.28. Perhaps part of their struggle has been because they haven't stacked the box the way teams often do to try and plug up their run game issues. They've brought up a safety or extra defender just 11.4% of the time this year, #5-least of any team in football. The Giants safeties have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #3-worst in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Giants have ranked #25 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 207 yards per game (#26 in football). On the ground they've ranked #20 with 4.21 yards per carry.<h2>New York Giants Insights</h2><ul><li>The Sharp Model projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.</li><li>Marcus Johnson has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (16.0 per game) than he did last year (25.0 per game).</li><li>The Sharp Model projects Daniel Jones to run for 0.32 touchdowns in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.</li></ul><h2>Minnesota Vikings Insights</h2><ul><li>The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and The Sharp Model projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).</li><li>The New York Giants defensive tackles rank as the best collection of DTs in the NFL this year with their pass rush.</li><li>The New York Giants defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.52 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The Minnesota Vikings have scored last in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 35% ROI)</li><li>The New York Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 57% ROI)</li><li>Daniel Jones has hit the Pass Attempts Over in his last 5 away games (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)</li></ul>

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New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings Matchup Preview - January 15th, 2023

Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers faceoff against Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chargers enter the game as a favorite (-135) despite being on the road. Los Angeles is currently favored by -2.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 47.0.Jacksonville's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #9 in football at 353 yards per game. The quality of their rushing attack has led to much of their success. The Jaguars 4.81 yards per carry ranks #6-best in the NFL. What makes the Jaguars run game success all the more noteworthy is how often they've faced a stacked box: 11.1% of the time, the #3-most of any team. Try as opposing defensives might to put an extra body near the line of scrimmage, Jacksonville hasn't been thwarted. When it comes to their defense, the Jaguars check in at #21 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 232 yards per game against Jacksonville this year (#23 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #6 against them with 4.29 yards per ground attempt. This Jaguars defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 63.5% of their passes (#6-lowest in the league). Jacksonville's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 9.05 yards per target (#2-worst in the league).Los Angeles's biggest strength has been their pass defense, which ranks #1 in the league while allowing just 188 yards per game this season. The Chargers have done the best job shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to a 60.4% completion rate (#2-lowest). Los Angeles's best position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank #4 in the league in locking down route-runners. In terms of their offense, the Chargers have ranked #3 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 284 yards per game (#3 in football). On the ground they've ranked #17 with 4.3 yards per carry.<h2>Los Angeles Chargers Insights</h2><ul><li>The Sharp Model projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.2% red zone pass rate.</li><li>Keenan Allen has notched significantly more air yards this year (89.0 per game) than he did last year (82.0 per game).</li><li>The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.</li></ul><h2>Jacksonville Jaguars Insights</h2><ul><li>The Sharp Model projects Trevor Lawrence to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (15.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.2% in games he has played).</li><li>The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.</li><li>The Sharp Model projects Christian Kirk to accrue 0.43 receiving touchdowns in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.55 Units / 22% ROI)</li><li>The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)</li><li>Justin Herbert has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 73% ROI)</li></ul>

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