A sportsbook hides probability inside a price you have to decode. A prediction market puts the probability on the screen. Same question, cleaner instrument — and once you can convert between the two notations, the two venues become one market you shop across. This lesson covers what a prediction market is, why price is probability, how order-book pricing differs from house pricing, what fees replace vig, and the two risks worth worrying about.
What a prediction market actually is
A prediction market lists a question with a yes-or-no answer and a fixed resolution date: "Will the Fed cut rates in March?" "Will this team win the championship?" "Will CPI print above 3.0%?"
