A prop line is a book's projection wearing a price tag. To find edge you need your own projection and a way to compare the two in the same units. This lesson builds that projection from three inputs — matchup, pace, and rate — then walks the arithmetic from raw stat line to an edge percentage you can size against.
Why per-game averages lie
The number on the broadcast graphic is points per game, and it is the worst input you have. Per-game production bundles three separate things into one number: how good the player is, how many minutes he plays, and how fast his team plays. A player averaging 9.2 rebounds tells you almost nothing until you know whether that came in 24 minutes or 34, and whether his team ran 95 possessions a night or 103.
