Ten entries can feel like ten bets, yet one missed player can sink most of them at once. Pick'em portfolio risk is about that hidden overlap. Picture three entries that each include the same player: the money at risk looks spread out, but one result decides them all. This lesson shows how to keep a risk ledger with stakes, shared selections, correlation groups, source ages and limit exposure, and how to stress test the worst case by player and by event. You will also look at how wide the error on your own edge estimate can be, and why a small positive number inside a big error band should not drive how much you put in.
Learning objectives
- Understand and reconstruct the technique.
- Complete a numerical example and explain assumptions.
- Evaluate common failure modes without overclaiming outcomes.
