Three rounds, three finish hazards, one consistent answer for how often a fight goes the distance. An MMA round totals model starts with the chance a fight ends in each round given it reaches that round. With hazards of .20, .15 and .10, the decision probability works out to 61.2% and a round-two finish to 12%. Winner, method and round markets must all come from one distribution, or your prices will quietly contradict each other. The lesson also explains why an over 1.5 rounds price needs within-round timing, since 2:30 sits inside round two. Add checks on liquidity, limits and settlement before you decide a quoted price has any real edge.
Learning objectives
Build an internally consistent outcome distribution and test it against independent data.
