You grab a moneyline at +120 on Tuesday, and by game time the same side sits at +100. Did you win something? A closing line benchmark can help answer that, but only if you compare identical selections at a defined cutoff time, with a consistent way to remove the bookmaker's margin. The lesson walks through that moneyline example step by step. It also shows why a better close is a process signal rather than proof of edge: closing prices can be thin, copied from other venues, or not available in size. Use it to audit how you bet, then judge your model on more than one yardstick.
Learning objectives
Understand the core method; reproduce the worked example; diagnose at least two failure modes; apply a testable practice workflow.
