Five bets on one quarterback is one bet in disguise. Correlated bets are the reason a stack of +EV picks can carry far more risk than the count suggests. The lesson works the portfolio variance formula with two equal positions, showing combined risk at a positive correlation versus a negative one. It then explains why pick'em entries and same-game parlays go wrong when an independence formula is applied to linked outcomes. You learn to map each play to its shared drivers, such as an athlete, a game script or an injury, and to add up dollars exposed along with scenario losses. The payoff is sizing that reflects how many separate ideas you actually hold.
Learning objectives
- Reproduce the lesson calculations.
- Identify the assumptions and conditions that can invalidate the modeled edge.
- Design an auditable research or practice workflow.
