Objectives
- Reproduce the lesson calculations.
- Identify the assumptions and conditions that can invalidate the modeled edge.
- Design an auditable research or practice workflow.
The real test of a +EV methodology is not a handful of wins. It is whether a predeclared decision rule creates accurate probabilities and survives a timestamp-faithful, execution-aware out-of-sample test. Accuracy, calibration, closing-line comparisons and realized outcomes answer different questions.
