Objectives
- Reproduce the lesson calculations.
- Identify the assumptions and conditions that can invalidate the modeled edge.
- Design an auditable research or practice workflow.
Finding several individually positive-EV selections does not establish that combining them creates a diversified portfolio. A common player, game script, injury, weather event, or model error can affect many selections at once. Correlation must be considered for both binary outcomes and payoff returns. Shared prediction errors can create dependence even when historical outcomes seem weakly correlated.
