Both Kalshi and Polymarket are prediction-market platforms — places to bet on the outcomes of real-world events priced as binary contracts (Yes/No, often translated to cents from 0 to 100). They overlap on many event types but differ in regulation, payment, liquidity, and what kinds of events get the deepest markets. This lesson is when to use which.
Quick recap
If Lesson #18 (Sharp Markets primer) is the foundation, this is the comparison. Both platforms work the same at the surface: a contract says "Will X happen?" priced at the market's best estimate of probability. Buy at 35¢, the market settles at $1 if X happens (you make 65¢) or at $0 if not (you lose 35¢). Same as buying a stock that pays $1 or $0.
