Ensemble Forecasting and Model Uncertainty

Ensemble Forecasting and Model Uncertainty

Why combine forecasts?

A single projection can be wrong because of sampling noise, misspecification or hidden changes in the sport. An ensemble combines multiple forecasts, potentially reducing dependence on any one model. Diversity must be genuine: five systems trained on the same data with similar assumptions may behave like one system. No ensemble promises superior accuracy.

A concrete two-model forecast

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