A blocked shot and a shot on goal look alike on the ice and settle very differently. NHL player props mix ice time, power-play role and shot volume, so the lesson begins with exact market definitions. You project minutes and usage: 18 minutes at .16 shots a minute gives 2.88. For goalies you start with the shots they will face. Thirty-one shots at a .915 save rate means 28.365 saves, with pulled goalies, overtime and empty nets bending it. Confirming the starter is a required gate before any goalie number matters. The lesson also warns against trusting stale prices. If you bet shots or saves, it keeps you from treating an average as a probability.
Learning objectives
- Define the sport-specific opportunity process and settlement conditions.
- Reproduce the worked numerical example and distinguish mean from tail probability.
- Construct a scenario-based research workflow and identify failure modes.
