Season-long markets look separate on a betting screen: win total, division, playoffs, conference, title. In reality they all come from one tangled set of games. An NFL futures simulation plays the whole league schedule thousands of times, applies the tiebreak rules each run, and counts how often each outcome shows up. You will see how that turns into a playoff probability you can compare with a quoted price, and why a pile of runs only measures sampling noise, not whether your game ratings were any good. Schedules, injuries and standings all feed each other, so pricing each market alone misleads. This lesson gives you the method and a healthy suspicion of tidy-looking percentages.
Learning objectives
- Explain the named technique and its assumptions.
- Work through the fictional example step by step.
- Recognize false signals and uncertainty.
- Apply the method to a paper research exercise.
