MLB Bet of the Day | July 26, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 170-164-7, -0.28u
RECAP: Yesterday was a solid day in a small slate as we go 2-0, hitting both our Team Total Parlay and our MLB Bet of the Day rather easily – literally both were never in doubt. Some days just work out that way! We relied on our Sharp AI and our Money Handles tools to find value on the play, and it just worked out for the best. On to today, where every single team is in action once again. 

July 26th, 2024

I’m not praying on the downfall of the Toronto Blue Jays – I just happen to be fading them two days in a row, because they are truly on a downward spiral as we approach the Trade Deadline in just a few days. Sometimes, teams crumble around this part of the season and are forced to truly sell… and that may be the case this year with the blue birds. 

Our Sharp Tools are pointing towards a win for the away team today in the Texas Rangers, as they currently own just 30% of the betting handle, but have 66% of the money handle, giving us an early-morning difference of 36%. Sharp AI also agrees with us here, giving the Rangers a 64% predictive win percentage. 

Kikuchi is a pitcher who I actually value more than most, but he’s taking the mound against a potent Rangers lineup not only trying to compete in the AL West, but have also won six straight games against this Blue Jays team dating back to last season. Kikuchi has been hit extremely hard this season in spots and has struggled mightily in both June and July – he owns a WHIP above 1.40 over the past two months and has allowed 34 runs over 50 innings of work. Those are not great returns.

Heaney is on the mound for Texas and is one of the most average pitchers on the planet right now. He’s been lights out in July, allowing just two earned runs over his last fifteen innings pitched and a WHIP of 1.11. 

And while neither of these teams are lighting it up on the scoreboard lately, the Rangers do have the better overall numbers: they’re getting on base over 30% of the time in their last ten games, while the Jays are getting on base just 27% of the time. And while both of these bullpens are rested, they’re definitely going to be relied on today, and I trust Texas’ bullpen just a tad bit more than the Jays’ bullpen.

We’re going to back Corey Seager and the Rangers today to pull out the win as the away team, something that has been hard to come by this season. All signs point to Texas tonight. 

PICK: Texas Rangers ML (+105)

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