MLB Bet of the Day | September 4, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 232-214-8, +11.34u
RECAP: We’re really starting to get on a heater here in the MLB, as we’ve gained quite a bit of units in August and into September - and that didn’t change yesterday, as we hit three out of our four plays for a gain of nearly two units of profit. Slowly but surely we’re making money in the MLB streets, and it’s all because we’ve been able to make some really detailed plays. Let’s continue that trend today! 

September 4th, 2024

This will be the second time this series that we nail this bet, and we’re hoping to see more of the same that we’ve seen in the series between the Yankees and the Rangers tonight, as we have Stroman and Eovaldi dueling on the mound.

The last time out, Eovaldi absolutely diced the Chicago White Sox – but this Yankees team isn’t even close to the White Sox, and the bats have been alive in the New York dugout, despite Aaron Judge stinking it up right now. The Yankees are averaging nearly six runs per game over their last ten games, and are getting on base 33% of the time during that stretch.

They’ve also hammered Eovaldi and the Rangers pretty well over the course of his career, hitting a crazy .294 against the righty in his career. When a lineup is hitting near-.300 against a pitcher, that’s an easy, must-take over. 

Plus, despite Stroman finding somewhat of a groove over his last five appearances (averaging nearly three earned runs and only five innings pitched), the over has hit in four of those last five games. This Rangers team gets on base that crucial 30% of the time against righties, and Stro has just about lost all of his touch on his velocity, strikeout percentage, and swings and misses. 

Against a good Rangers lineup like this, that could come to bite him. And the umpire is working against them as well, with 62% of all games he’s been behind the plate on going over the total. Today, we have a low total of 8.5 in this game, and the first two have soared over this number, with 12 and 13 total runs in each of the previous two matchups. 

In their last ten games against righties, the Yankees are scoring over six runs per game per nine innings. The Rangers are following that up with at least four runs per game per nine innings against the same handed-ness. My models project over ten runs in this one, and Sharp AI agrees that the total should be higher - let’s take the over. 

PICK: New York / Texas over 8.5

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