The proptimizer tool was designed to beat the sportsbooks and PrizePicks. We use it for PrizePicks by taking the prop lines in the market and converting those into a projection. If we use that projection for stats calculated in the DFS and fantasy world, we can project our fantasy projections that will be more accurate than any other site.Watch this video for a tutorial on how to do this yourself.

How To Create DFS Projections Using The Proptimizer

This article will be updated throughout the day as I get updates from the sportsbook that I have access to.&nbsp;Each section will be explained below, and the time will be added each time the Sharp Report is updated. You can use this information to make your own picks or tail the hot sections. Historically, Sharp bets, Whale plays, Model plays, and square have done very well. Keep in mind that this information comes from a sharp / market maker sportsbook, and the squares (public) playing there are more experienced than regular joe's betting on retail books therefore, you can find success in tailing the public.&nbsp;<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/3VuB3uYm31KCQvusxlz8VP/ab120b8e5ff52233f39d3fe65e38865d/Screenshot_2023-09-25_081049.png"/>You can find the Sharp Report performance tracker <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MHiDdyZ8MEDe2HwRXMPjDOwc8mAMZsaKm67NE2txIIM/edit?usp=sharing" title="">here</a>: I wouldn't wanna be a Cowboy and wake up this morning and realize that what happened yesterday was real and it wasn't a dream. The Vikings are 0-3. We have a huge under 8.5 wins bet on them. It looked easy for Cleveland, Jax looked bad, it was a decent game in NY, nail bitter in GB and the Dolphins are still scoring points this morning. I spoke about the Lions all week but didn't pull the trigger. Anyway, I'll stop talking NFL, and I'll do a week 3 recap today. The Whale went perfect yesterday winning all 3 picks. He's 6-1 last 3 days and 30-31 -15 G's for September. Fading the book in the NFL went 4-0 and it's 11-5 for the season. The sharps are really struggling in the NFL. They went 2-3 yesterday and they are 3-12 for the season.We got a small MLB slate today but look out for some picks nonetheless. Also, keep an eye on some free articles on the app and sign up to PRO if you want all the picks and info! GL todayLast update: 4:30 PM (EST) IN PROGRESS&nbsp;<h2>Sharp money plays:</h2>These are plays that the sharp bettors have been betting at the sportsbook. If you see a team in this section, sharp money is on one side of the play. If you see a team being removed throughout the day, it means that sharp money came on the other side.MLB:CFB:OREGON STATE -2 9/29 9PMJAXSONVILLE STATE -6 9/28 8PMVIRGINIA TECH UNDER 44.5 9/30 8PMTEXAS TECH UNDER 56.5 9/30 330PMTENNESEE UNDER 63.5 9/30 730PMNFL:KC - 7 &amp; -9TENNESSE +1.5 &amp; -1MINNESOTA -1 &amp; -3DALLAS UNDER 42.5 NBA/WNBA:NEW YORK -8.5 9/26<h2>Sportsbook liabilities:</h2>Updated around 4 pm, in this section, you will find the top plays that the book will cheer for since they took large sums of money on the opposite teams. I know the house always wins; however, this info comes from a sharp book, and these plays have been the most consistent when they are faded, especially when there is no public interest on the other side.MLB:CFB:PHILADELPHIA OVER 44.5 CINCINNATI OVER 45.5COLORADO +24.5 9/30UTAH +2.5 9/29CLEMSON -6.5 9/30AUBURN +15 9/30NOTRE DAME -5.5 9/30ARIZONA +17.5 9/30NFL:NY JETS +9NEW ORLEANS -3CHICAGO +3.5<h2>Square top positions:</h2>It is a strategy to bet against the public however as mentioned above, these regular joes are pretty good. In this section, you will find picks on which the public is heavy. This section is updated around 4 pm, the time to be able to gather enough data throughout the course of the day.MLB:SAN DIEGO -116HOUSTON +112CFB:USC -27.5 9/3012PMSYRACUSE +6.5 9/30 12PMGEORGIA -14.5 9/30 330PMWASHINGTON -17.5 9/30 10PMNFL:KC -9.5DENVER -3.5NEW ENGLAND +7MINNESOTA -3NBA/WNBA:<h2>Whale plays: </h2>The whale is one of the biggest bettors at the sportsbook. He's a sharp bettor with high betting limits and is highly respected. MLB/NFL:ARIZONA -120 35UEAGLES -5 35USEATTLE -122 35U<h2>The top model plays:</h2>This section covers all the highest EV plays straight from my NHL, NBA, and MLB modelsMLB/NFL:ASTROS +110 9.20% EVGIANTS +102 6.05% EVGOOD LUCK TODAY Join <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games

Sharpreport

Find out the best sharp bets, book liabilities, model plays and public heavy positions. 

The Sharp Report for September 25, 2023

<h5>Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8% to 10% on totals. In the age of big data and advanced analytics, sports predictive models have become an indispensable tool for bettors and sports enthusiasts alike. These models, often powered by sophisticated algorithms and vast amounts of data, aim to forecast the outcome of sports events with a higher degree of accuracy than human intuition alone. But while they offer numerous advantages, they also come with their own set of limitations.</h5>Advantages of Sports Betting Models:<ol><li>Data-Driven Decisions: One of the primary benefits of using predictive models is that they base their predictions on hard data. This means that instead of relying on gut feelings or biases, bettors can make informed decisions based on historical performance, player statistics, and other quantifiable metrics.</li><li>Identification of Value: Predictive models can help bettors identify potential value in bets. If a model predicts a different outcome than the odds provided by bookmakers, there might be an opportunity for a value bet.</li><li>Consistency: Human judgment can be inconsistent, swayed by emotions, recent events, or personal biases. Predictive models, on the other hand, are consistent in their approach, evaluating every game based on the same set of criteria.</li><li>Efficiency: With the ability to process vast amounts of data quickly, these models can evaluate numerous variables and scenarios in a fraction of the time it would take a human.</li></ol>Limitations of Sports Betting Models:<ol><li>Unpredictable Variables: As the saying goes, &quot;sports are unpredictable.&quot; There are countless variables that a model might not account for. For instance, what a player did the night before a game, sudden illnesses, or personal issues can significantly impact their performance but might not be reflected in the model.</li><li>Weather Impact: While some models might factor in general weather conditions, the nuanced effects of weather on outdoor sports can be challenging to predict. A sudden gust of wind or a brief downpour can change the dynamics of a game in ways a model might not foresee.</li><li>Over-reliance: There's a danger in becoming too dependent on models. Bettors might ignore their own knowledge or insights about a game, thinking the model knows best. This can lead to missed opportunities or misguided bets.</li><li>Model Accuracy: No model is perfect. Even the most sophisticated predictive models can and do get predictions wrong. It's essential to understand that these are tools to aid decision-making, not guarantee outcomes.</li><li>Data Limitations: The accuracy of a model is only as good as the data it's fed. If there's a lack of comprehensive data or if the data is outdated, the model's predictions can be skewed.</li></ol>While sports predictive models offer a more systematic and data-driven approach to betting, they are not infallible. They serve best as a guide, complementing a bettor's own knowledge and insights. It's essential to balance relying on the model and understanding its limitations, ensuring that bets are placed not just on numbers and algorithms but also on a comprehensive understanding of the game.NFL BETTING MODEL FOR WEEK 4, 2023Let's huddle up and break down some early NFL action. If you're one of those bettors who likes to get in on the action early in the week, you're in for a treat. With the Player Ratings (PR) freshly updated, we've got some official projections to work with, and boy, do they paint an intriguing picture. Ill share a picture of the model at the end of tonight's games. First up, we've got the Bears. Now, the projections are suggesting this game is more of a pick'em, but guess what? We're getting a sweet 3 points with them playing at home. The line's been dancing a bit, moving from +2.5 to +3.5, but it's currently sitting pretty at +3. If you're feeling frisky, and I know some of you are, keep an eye out for that +3.5. That half-point could be the difference between a push and a win.Fly over to Philly, and the Eagles are looking strong. The projections have them at a hefty -10.87, but the line? A mere -7. Now, I've got to tweak the PR based on tonight's action, but early indicators? They're all pointing towards the Eagles soaring. I'll circle back to this matchup tomorrow, so stay tuned. The main concern with the Eagles is their defense. Now, let's talk Cincinnati. With Burrow under center, they're projected at -3.97. But if he's riding the pine? Well, the line should swing to around -1 in favor of the Titans. Right now, it's a pick'em, so this is a classic wait-and-see scenario. Keep those eyes peeled for any updates on Burrow's status.Over in LA, the Chargers are electrifying. My ideal number? Chargers -3. But let's be real, that ship has sailed. The line's surging towards -5.5 and even -6. But here's the play: wait for a potential buyback on the Raiders. If we're lucky, we might snag a more favorable number.Last but not least, the Seahawks. Projected at -3.26, we're currently getting a tasty 1.5 points. This line's been on a rollercoaster, moving from +1.5 to -1.5 in favor of the Giants. Big Blue has already squared off against a couple of Super Bowl contenders, but this matchup against the 'Hawks? It's their litmus test. And the million-dollar question: will Saquon Barkley suit up? Expect some wild swings on this line as we get closer to kickoff but i'm liking the value on Seattle. Good luck in Week 4

Anthony P's NFL model 

Here are my weekly projections for the NFL

Anthony P's NFL Model and PR for Week 4, 2023 

<h4>I will post the Top Prop plays for the day according to my model and its projections. This may differ from the Top Props tool in the app. These are plays I think are worthwhile bets.</h4>Stafford was given out yesterday so do not dupe the play.<table><tr><th>Player</th><th>Team</th><th>Stat</th><th>Proj</th><th>Prop</th><th>O/U</th><th>Juice</th><th>Book</th><th>Edge</th><th> At Worst </th></tr><tr><td>Matthew Stafford</td><td>LAR</td><td>Passing TDs</td><td>1.27</td><td>1.5</td><td>U</td><td>-110</td><td>Draftkings</td><td>11.40%</td><td>-115</td></tr><tr><td>Ben Skowronek</td><td>LAR</td><td>Receptions</td><td>1.33</td><td>0.5</td><td>O</td><td>-150</td><td>BetMGM</td><td>13.60%</td><td>-170</td></tr></table>Good Luck!

Untitled Image

Top Props - NFL September 25, 2023 ADDED PLAY

<h5>We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8% to 10% on totals. In the age of big data and advanced analytics, sports predictive models have become an indispensable tool for bettors and sports enthusiasts alike. These models, often powered by sophisticated algorithms and vast amounts of data, aim to forecast the outcome of sports events with a higher degree of accuracy than human intuition alone. But while they offer numerous advantages, they also come with their own set of limitations.</h5>Advantages of Sports Betting Models:<ol><li>Data-Driven Decisions: One of the primary benefits of using predictive models is that they base their predictions on hard data. This means that instead of relying on gut feelings or biases, bettors can make informed decisions based on historical performance, player statistics, and other quantifiable metrics.</li><li>Identification of Value: Predictive models can help bettors identify potential value in bets. If a model predicts a different outcome than the odds provided by bookmakers, there might be an opportunity for a value bet.</li><li>Consistency: Human judgment can be inconsistent, swayed by emotions, recent events, or personal biases. Predictive models, on the other hand, are consistent in their approach, evaluating every game based on the same set of criteria.</li><li>Efficiency: With the ability to process vast amounts of data quickly, these models can evaluate numerous variables and scenarios in a fraction of the time it would take a human.</li></ol>Limitations of Sports Betting Models:<ol><li>Unpredictable Variables: As the saying goes, &quot;sports are unpredictable.&quot; There are countless variables that a model might not account for. For instance, what a player did the night before a game, sudden illnesses, or personal issues can significantly impact their performance but might not be reflected in the model.</li><li>Weather Impact: While some models might factor in general weather conditions, the nuanced effects of weather on outdoor sports can be challenging to predict. A sudden gust of wind or a brief downpour can change the dynamics of a game in ways a model might not foresee.</li><li>Over-reliance: There's a danger in becoming too dependent on models. Bettors might ignore their own knowledge or insights about a game, thinking the model knows best. This can lead to missed opportunities or misguided bets.</li><li>Model Accuracy: No model is perfect. Even the most sophisticated predictive models can and do get predictions wrong. It's essential to understand that these are tools to aid decision-making, not guarantee outcomes.</li><li>Data Limitations: The accuracy of a model is only as good as the data it's fed. If there's a lack of comprehensive data or if the data is outdated, the model's predictions can be skewed.</li></ol>While sports predictive models offer a more systematic and data-driven approach to betting, they are not infallible. They serve best as a guide, complementing a bettor's own knowledge and insights. It's essential to balance relying on the model and understanding its limitations, ensuring that bets are placed not just on numbers and algorithms but also on a comprehensive understanding of the game.MLB BETTING MODEL FOR SEPT 25, 2023<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/7BIZMJqg0NDOiH3E4fS4oi/eea70f2660c59639385ef40204789531/Screenshot_2023-09-25_130825.png"/>We are up 0.87 units in September and looking at closing this month strong. We have 2 nice value plays for today's slate and many will not agree. ASTROS +110 9.20% EVGIANTS +102 6.05% EVAh, the final week of the MLB regular season, where the stakes are high and every pitch counts. The AL West is a powder keg ready to blow, and the Astros-Mariners series is the match that could set it all off. Let's dive into this high-stakes showdown and see where the smart money should go.First off, the Astros are like that ex who keeps messing with your head&mdash;just when you think they're gonna come through, they let you down. I mean, they've been dropping games like they're hot potatoes. On the flip side, I've got a season wins future riding on the Mariners, and I'm praying to the baseball gods for a big series from Seattle. But let's keep it a buck; the value here is making me second-guess myself.The Rangers are sitting pretty, up 2.5 games on Houston and 3 on Seattle, but don't sleep on the Astros and Mariners. They've got a three-game set in Seattle that could be a golden ticket to the postseason for either squad. And let's not forget, both teams are coming off a weekend that they'd rather forget&mdash;swept and left for dead. So, you better believe they're coming into this series with chips on their shoulders.Now, let's talk about the mound duel that's gonna kick off this series: Luis Castillo vs. Justin Verlander. If you ask me, Castillo's got the edge. The dude's a clutch performer, especially when the calendar flips to September. The Mariners have been riding a 10-game win streak with him on the mound, and he's been racking up Ks like they're going out of style. Verlander? Not so much. The Astros have lost three of his last four starts, and he's been serving up runs like a bad bartender serves drinks.Here's the kicker: Verlander's been solid against teams like the Rangers and Orioles but has struggled against the A's and Yankees. That's not the kind of reverse split you want when you're heading into a do-or-die series. So, can Verlander step up when the lights are brightest? That's the million-dollar question.But let's not forget about the bullpens. Both teams have relievers who can shut it down, so whoever takes the lead early is gonna have a massive advantage. I'm banking on Castillo to keep doing Castillo things and come up big when it matters most. Plus, the Mariners have that home-field magic working for them.In a nutshell, I'm expecting a nail-biter of a game, probably low-scoring, with Seattle's bullpen putting up some late zeroes to seal the deal. So, if you're looking to make some last-minute bets, keep an eye on this series. It's gonna be a wild ride, and you don't wanna miss out.As for the Giants value, the smell of desperation is in the air as they square off in a late-season clash that could make or break their playoff dreams. If you're looking to put some skin in the game, this matchup is as juicy as they come. So, let's break it down and see where the smart money should land.First off, let's talk momentum. The Padres were on an eight-game heater before taking an L on Saturday night. The Giants, on the other hand, have been stumbling and bumbling for the last six or seven weeks like they're walking through a maze blindfolded. Momentum is a real thing, folks, and right now, the Padres have it in spades.Now, let's get into the nitty-gritty: the pitching matchup. We've got Snell, the guy who's pretty much got the NL Cy Young locked up, going up against Webb, who's been the hard-luck loser for the Giants this season. Sure, Snell's got a walk problem&mdash;leading the majors and all&mdash;but the dude knows how to keep his team in the game. He's like that friend who always pulls through when you're in a jam. Webb? The guy's been pitching his heart out, but it's like his offense took a vow of poverty every time he's on the mound. The Giants' bats have been colder than a polar bear's toenails, especially at home.So, what's the play here? Look, it's hard to back the Giants given their recent track record. They've been about as reliable as a paper umbrella in a monsoon. The Padres, meanwhile, are fighting to keep their playoff candle burning, and with Snell on the mound, you've got to like their chances.In the world of sports betting, you've got to go where the data&mdash;and sometimes the gut&mdash;takes you. And all signs point to the Padres pulling off a road win to keep their playoff dreams on life support.Good luck today!Join <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games and get 20% off for life with promo code anthonyp20

MLB MODEL 

Anthony P's MLB Model September 25, 2023

There is now a Top Prop tab in the game center. These are the top prop choices based on our projections. I consider those projections on the model I'm running to give you the Top Props article, which is filtered to provide you with only the props I'm betting. For now, I will be sticking to K props. I may expand as the season goes on.The season long P/L is at 14.3 units<table><tr><th>Player</th><th>Team</th><th>Stat</th><th>Proj</th><th>Prop</th><th>O/U</th><th>Juice</th><th>Book</th><th>Edge</th><th>At Worst</th></tr><tr><td>Justin Verlander</td><td>HOU</td><td>K's</td><td>5.98</td><td>6.5</td><td>U</td><td>106</td><td>FanDuel</td><td>12.40%</td><td>-105</td></tr></table>

Top Props - MLB September 25, 2023

The Bottom Line article will lead us in making the right call on high-profile games. I will cover TNF, SNF, and MNF. I will also cover big baseball games, the NBA, and the NHL. If you are not yet a PRO subscriber what are you waiting? I've already shared my initial projections for week 4. Get ahead of the game! We covered the line movement for both games in the Overnight Grind this morning but let's take another look at it in details. First off, let's talk about the line movement. Philly opened as a 6.5 point favorite, but that number's been slashed faster than a Black Friday sale, now sitting at a modest five. The total? Opened at 44 and got bet up to 47 before the sharps pounced on the under, bringing it back down to 46.Now, injuries are the name of the game, and Philly's secondary is looking like a MASH unit. Bradbury and Blankenship, both key players in the corner and safety positions, are on the questionable list. Tampa's got its own woes, mostly on the defensive side. Carlton Davis, their star cornerback, missed their last game, and while Justin Fields couldn't capitalize on that, maybe Jalen Hurts can.Let's get down to the nitty-gritty. The Eagles are sputtering like a car running out of gas. They've had to replace both of their coordinators, and Jalen Hurts seems a bit off-kilter. Asking Philly to cover and win by a touchdown on the road against a rejuvenated Tampa Bay team on Monday Night Football? That's like asking for a snowstorm in July.Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is looking like a team that's found its groove. They're a veteran squad that knows how to handle the big stage. Baker Mayfield has been a revelation, and the team is rallying around him. The guy's blocking people twice his size and acting like a cheerleader on steroids. That kind of energy is contagious, and it's got the whole team buzzing.The numbers back it up too. Philly's been gaining a measly five yards per play while giving up 5.7. And let's not forget, they haven't exactly faced a murderer's row of opponents. Tampa's got the better stats year-to-date, and the wise guys in town seem to love them. The line's likely to keep dropping, probably hitting four before game time.So, what's the play here? If you're leaning towards the Eagles, maybe look at the money line, but honestly, the smart money's on Tampa Bay. The line's at plus five now, but it's dropping faster than a rock in a pond. This might be your last chance to buy low on the Bucs before the market catches up to them.Already, let's jump into the Bengals game! Grab your notepads and pens because we're diving deep into a Monday Night Football showdown that's got more layers than a seven-layer dip. We're talking about the Cincinnati Bengals squaring off against the Los Angeles Rams&mdash;a rematch of that infamous Super Bowl two years ago that still has Bengals fans salty. Remember that controversial penalty that basically handed the Rams the Lombardi Trophy? Yeah, the Bengals haven't forgotten, and neither should you when you're laying down your hard-earned cash on this game.First off, let's talk about Joe Burrow. The guy's been walking wounded this season, and his status for this game is shakier than a leaf in a windstorm. But don't hit the panic button just yet. Last year, the Bengals were slow starters too, especially with Jamar Chase sidelined early in the season. So, if Burrow's in, expect some fireworks, but if he's out, well, let's just say the Bengals will have to dig deep.On the flip side, Matthew Stafford's been slinging it for the Rams. He's got a new BFF in Nakua, but here's the kicker&mdash;Stafford took a beating last week that would make a crash test dummy wince. I'm no doctor, but those ribs looked like they took a serious hit. So, how's he gonna hold up against a Bengals defense that's out for blood, especially after that Super Bowl heartbreaker?Now, let's get down to the nitty-gritty&mdash;the bets. With Burrow's status up in the air and Stafford nursing what could be some busted ribs, I'm leaning toward a slugfest rather than a shootout. Add in the fact that the Bengals' defense is probably still seeing red from that Super Bowl, and you've got all the makings of a low-scoring affair. So, for all you over/under junkies, my lean is on the under. The Bottom Line: The smart money seems to be on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +5. With the line expected to drop even further, now might be the best time to lock in that bet. The Buccaneers have shown they're a team on the rise, rallying around Baker Mayfield's infectious energy. On the flip side, the Eagles have been struggling, particularly on the defensive end, and their offense hasn't been in sync. Given the current state of both teams and the favorable line movement, the prediction here would be to take the Buccaneers at +5 or better. Heritage just posted a +5.5 therefore I will wait and see what the market does. This could be a close game, but Tampa Bay has the momentum and the stats to not only cover the spread but potentially pull off an upset win against the Eagles. As for the Rams and Bengals, Given the variables we've got on the table&mdash;Joe Burrow's questionable status, Matthew Stafford's potential rib issue, and a Bengals defense that's probably still salty from that Super Bowl loss&mdash;I'm leaning towards a defensive battle here. Both teams have something to prove, and both quarterbacks might not be at 100%. That's a recipe for a grind-it-out, low-scoring game if I've ever seen one. So here's my prediction: I'm taking the under on this Monday Night Football showdown between the Bengals and the Rams. Expect both defenses to come out swinging, and don't be surprised if the final score has you double-checking to make sure you're not watching a baseball game.Remember, this isn't financial advice, just a seasoned sports bettor giving you the lowdown. Always do your own research and bet responsibly. Good luck, and may your bets cash like a pro!Would you like to unlock all my VIP picks? Use promo code AnthonyP20 and get 20% off for life.Join <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games

Sept 25 MNF Double Header Special 

Tune in every day for PrizePicks plays from MadnessDFS!

PrizePicks NFL Picks You Need For Monday Night Football - 9/25

<h5>Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8% to 10% on totals. In the age of big data and advanced analytics, sports predictive models have become an indispensable tool for bettors and sports enthusiasts alike. These models, often powered by sophisticated algorithms and vast amounts of data, aim to forecast the outcome of sports events with a higher degree of accuracy than human intuition alone. But while they offer numerous advantages, they also come with their own set of limitations.</h5>Advantages of Sports Betting Models:<ol><li>Data-Driven Decisions: One of the primary benefits of using predictive models is that they base their predictions on hard data. This means that instead of relying on gut feelings or biases, bettors can make informed decisions based on historical performance, player statistics, and other quantifiable metrics.</li><li>Identification of Value: Predictive models can help bettors identify potential value in bets. If a model predicts a different outcome than the odds provided by bookmakers, there might be an opportunity for a value bet.</li><li>Consistency: Human judgment can be inconsistent, swayed by emotions, recent events, or personal biases. Predictive models, on the other hand, are consistent in their approach, evaluating every game based on the same set of criteria.</li><li>Efficiency: With the ability to process vast amounts of data quickly, these models can evaluate numerous variables and scenarios in a fraction of the time it would take a human.</li></ol>Limitations of Sports Betting Models:<ol><li>Unpredictable Variables: As the saying goes, &quot;sports are unpredictable.&quot; There are countless variables that a model might not account for. For instance, what a player did the night before a game, sudden illnesses, or personal issues can significantly impact their performance but might not be reflected in the model.</li><li>Weather Impact: While some models might factor in general weather conditions, the nuanced effects of weather on outdoor sports can be challenging to predict. A sudden gust of wind or a brief downpour can change the dynamics of a game in ways a model might not foresee.</li><li>Over-reliance: There's a danger in becoming too dependent on models. Bettors might ignore their own knowledge or insights about a game, thinking the model knows best. This can lead to missed opportunities or misguided bets.</li><li>Model Accuracy: No model is perfect. Even the most sophisticated predictive models can and do get predictions wrong. It's essential to understand that these are tools to aid decision-making, not guarantee outcomes.</li><li>Data Limitations: The accuracy of a model is only as good as the data it's fed. If there's a lack of comprehensive data or if the data is outdated, the model's predictions can be skewed.</li></ol>While sports predictive models offer a more systematic and data-driven approach to betting, they are not infallible. They serve best as a guide, complementing a bettor's own knowledge and insights. It's essential to balance relying on the model and understanding its limitations, ensuring that bets are placed not just on numbers and algorithms but also on a comprehensive understanding of the game.NFL BETTING MODEL FOR WEEK 3, 2023<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/7iyvP9EHXhItK4ZRXsiACd/b32fa2293f4ecdf908cc3a86383e230f/Screenshot_2023-09-23_205141.png"/>REVIEW OF WEEK 3: Grab a seat and a cold one, 'cause we're about to dissect the wins, losses, and everything in between from Week 3. We're talking value, we're talking models, and yeah, we're talking about those head-scratchers that make you wonder if the sports gods are just messing with us.Let's kick it off with the 49ers. The model wasn't exactly drooling over them, but we found a sweet spot with a 1st half bet that paid off. Sometimes, you gotta look beyond the obvious, you know?Ah, the Jets. They showed value but ended up being as disappointing as a flat beer. This L isn't just a one-off; it's gonna ding their power rating for sure. In Miami, the model was all about that under, and let's just say that was the comedy gold of the weekend. Who knew?Now, let's talk about the Broncos. Their defense is giving up 7.2 yards per play this season. I mean, you can't make this stuff up. No model in the world could've predicted this hot mess.And what's the deal with the Jags? The model had them at -10.5, a field goal better than the closing line. But honestly, I'm as puzzled as a chameleon in a bag of Skittles. Gonna have to go back to the drawing board on how to rank this team.Green Bay backers, you're probably still grinning. The model was vibing with you, showing close to 14% EV at -1 and even more love at the closing +1.5. Cleveland's defense is the real MVP right now, leading the league in opponent yards per play. They put the Titans on ice, and if you had Derrick Henry in your fantasy, well, my condolences. The smart money was on the Browns at -3.The Chargers? Pure value. Snagging them at +1 gave you close to 11% EV, and man, what a game that was. Heart-stopping stuff.Over in Seattle, the model was all-in with a -7.1, and when the line dropped to -4.5, it was like finding a $20 bill in your old jeans. The Seahawks did their thing and won by 10.Last but not least, let's talk SNF. The model had the Raiders closer to -1, so grabbing those 3 points on the Steelers was like getting the last slice of pizza&mdash;pure joy. Pittsburgh went to Vegas and hit the jackpot, winning straight up.So, how did we do? The model went 5-3 on its best values for Week 3, and we're still waiting on the Bengals. But hey, that's the game, right? You win some, you lose some, and sometimes you're just left scratching your head. Until next week, keep those bets smart and those fingers crossed.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------UPDATE:Let's get down to the nitty-gritty. We've got a smorgasbord of NFL action this week, and the lines are dancing like they're at a wedding reception. So, let's break it down, shall we?First off, let's talk Jets. The model's got 'em as 1.4-point favorites, but the sportsbooks are handing out 2.5 points like candy on Halloween. If you're eyeing the Jets, you might wanna hold your horses and try to snag that elusive +3. It popped up a couple of times but got hammered down faster than a cold beer on a hot day.Now, what about the Jags? The model's got 'em at a hefty -10.26, but the line's been doing the cha-cha from -7.5 to -9.5 and back. If you can get 'em at -7 or better, you might wanna jump on that like a trampoline.Miami and Denver? The model's not expecting a lot of points, but I'm calling shenanigans on that one. Sometimes the model needs a reality check, ya know?Packers fans, listen up. The model's got Green Bay at -3.04, but the line's been drifting down to -1. If you're not a Saints believer, this might be your jam. The line's moved from -2.5 to -1 since Monday, and I'm all in on the model's take here.The Browns? Oh man, that line's been bouncing around like a ping pong ball, from -3 to -3.5. all week. But it's never dipped its toes into the -2.5 waters. The model's got 'em at a solid -5.11, so if you can grab 'em at -3 the model supports the play. Chargers vs. Vikings? Tougher than a $2 steak. But I'm leaning toward Minnesota, even though it pains me to say it. Herbert's being mismanaged like a mom-and-pop shop during Black Friday, and Cousins and Jefferson could go off like fireworks on the Fourth of July.Seattle's a whole different animal. The market's loving Dalton more than Young, and the line dropped a full point when Dalton got the nod. What's that tell ya? Dalton's got the edge in the QB PRs, maybe by half a point to a full point. I'm sitting this one out.Last but not least, the Steelers. If that line hits +3, I'm on it like white on rice. Both teams need to get their act together, but the Raiders' defense is gassed and the Steelers' offense is, well, let's just say they couldn't score in a brothel with a fistful of fifties. But at +3? I'm willing to roll the dice.----------------------------------------------------------------------Understanding Expected Value (EV) and line movements is paramount. These metrics offer bettors a more informed perspective, allowing them to make decisions that are not just based on gut feelings but on tangible data. Let's delve into some intriguing matchups and their betting implications.Starting with the Ravens, there's a 3% EV currently. However, the real intrigue begins if the line drops to -6.5. With a projection at -10.5, the Ravens at -6.5 becomes a tantalizing proposition. Simply put, if the line hits that magic number, it's a clear signal to capitalize.The Chargers, on the other hand, are showing a promising 9% EV at a pickem. This, combined with the over the total, suggests we might be in for a high-scoring affair, potentially even a blowout.Then there's the Jets. While some might argue there's value in backing them, it's hard to overlook the Patriots' recent misfortunes. Labeling them as &quot;unlucky&quot; might be an understatement. Despite their recent woes, the Patriots seem poised for a win in their upcoming matchup.Miami's over is where things get particularly interesting. A staggering 19% EV is reminiscent of what we observed in Detroit last week, which culminated in a blowout. This suggests that betting on a high-scoring game in Miami could be a wise move.The situation in Cleveland is another one to monitor closely. If the line shifts to -3, it becomes a compelling bet, especially with a projection of -5.1. It's noteworthy that even with Nick Chubb's injury, the line remained stable. This underscores a golden rule in NFL betting: only quarterbacks significantly move lines.The Raiders, despite their rocky start, are showing an 11.30% EV at a pickem. It's a game of patience here. Observing how many points one can secure in this matchup is crucial. The public sentiment is fickle. After the recent games, many are leaning towards Pittsburgh, given their victory over a Cleveland team that had previously bested Cincinnati. Concurrently, there's a tendency to fade Las Vegas due to their 1-1 start. But seasoned bettors know that past performance isn't always indicative of future results.Lastly, a word of caution regarding Cincinnati's projections. With Joe Burrow out, the projection should realistically be closer to -4.3. Come next Monday, if still available the -1.5 line will be an attractive proposition. I will be patient on this game and wait a little longer. Good luck in week 3

Anthony P's NFL Model and PR for Week 3 REVIEW, 2023

In a National League West matchup scheduled to be played on September 25, 2023, the San Francisco Giants will host the San Diego Padres at Oracle Park. Both teams are currently in the middle of the pack in the NL West, with the Giants in 4th place and the Padres in 3rd. While both teams have been mathematically eliminated from winning the division, they still have pride and a desire to finish the season on a high note.The Giants have had an average season with a record of 77-79. Their offense has struggled, ranking 24th in MLB and 21st in team batting average. However, their bullpen has been a bright spot, ranked as the 3rd best in the league according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.The Padres, on the other hand, have underperformed expectations this year. With the same record as the Giants, they have a talented offense that ranks 10th in MLB and 7th in team stolen bases. However, their bullpen is ranked 11th according to our Power Rankings.This game will feature a pitching matchup between Logan Webb of the Giants and Blake Snell of the Padres. Webb, ranked as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings, has had a solid season with a 10-13 record and a 3.35 ERA. Snell, ranked 33rd, has been even better with a 14-9 record and an impressive 2.33 ERA.Webb, a right-handed pitcher, is known for his control, while Snell, a left-handed pitcher, excels at striking out batters. The Giants' offense, with its high strikeout rate, could struggle against Snell's dominant pitching.In terms of recent performance, the Giants' best hitter over the last 7 games has been LaMonte Wade Jr., while the Padres' standout has been Juan Soto. Both players have been productive, contributing multiple home runs and RBIs during that span.According to the current odds, the Padres are slight favorites to win this game, with an implied win probability of 51%. However, given Webb's strong pitching and the Giants' solid bullpen, this game could be a close matchup.Overall, while the Giants have been considered the underdogs by our Power Rankings, they have the potential to compete against the Padres, especially with Webb on the mound. As always, in baseball, anything can happen, and this game is shaping up to be an exciting battle between division rivals.<h2>Padres Insights</h2><ul><li>Out of all SPs, Blake Snell's fastball spin rate of 2427 rpm grades out in the 84th percentile this year.</li><li>Ji-Man Choi has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.</li><li>The best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the San Diego Padres.</li></ul><h2>Giants Insights</h2><ul><li>Compared to average, Logan Webb has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 7.1 adjusted pitches each outing.</li><li>Mitch Haniger has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph dropping to 82.3-mph over the last 7 days.</li><li>The San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (The Sharp Model).</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 65 of their last 105 games (+21.07 Units / 17% ROI)</li><li>The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 139 games (+8.20 Units / 5% ROI)</li><li>Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.65 Units / 48% ROI)</li></ul>

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Padres vs Giants Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - September 25th, 2023

In an American League West matchup, the Seattle Mariners will face off against the Houston Astros at T-Mobile Park on September 25, 2023. The Mariners will be the home team, while the Astros will be the away team.Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Mariners currently in 3rd place in the AL West and the Astros in 2nd place. The Astros are also in possession of a Wild Card spot, meeting their high expectations for the year.The Mariners have a record of 84-71 this season, while the Astros have a record of 85-71. The Mariners have been performing better than expected, as they rank 19th in our advanced-stat Power Rankings, despite having the 10th best record in MLB. On the other hand, the Astros rank 4th in the Power Rankings, showcasing their strong underlying talent.Luis Castillo is projected to start for the Mariners, while Justin Verlander is projected to start for the Astros. Castillo is considered the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to our Power Rankings, while Verlander ranks 29th.Castillo has had a solid season, with a 14-7 win/loss record and an impressive 3.06 ERA. However, his 3.78 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress going forward. Verlander, with an 11-8 record and a 3.44 ERA, also has a higher xFIP of 4.63, indicating potential regression in his performance.In terms of offense, the Mariners rank 16th in MLB, while the Astros rank 5th. The Mariners have struggled with their team batting average, ranking 24th, but have shown power with a 13th rank in team home runs. The Astros, on the other hand, have a well-rounded offense, ranking 14th in batting average and 9th in home runs.Based on the current odds, the Mariners have an implied win probability of 53%, while the Astros have a win probability of 47%. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair.<h2>Astros Insights</h2><ul><li>The Houston Astros outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of all the teams on the slate today.</li><li>Jose Altuve has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.9-mph dropping to 79.8-mph in the past 14 days.</li><li>Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.8% &mdash; 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.</li></ul><h2>Mariners Insights</h2><ul><li>Compared to league average, Luis Castillo has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 7.3 adjusted pitches each outing.</li><li>Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Houston (#2-best on the slate today).</li><li>The Seattle Mariners have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, The Sharp Model X) (Cal Raleigh, Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic).</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 73 games at home (+10.45 Units / 11% ROI)</li><li>The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 37 away games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)</li><li>Chas McCormick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+6.95 Units / 49% ROI)</li></ul>

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Astros vs Mariners Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - September 25th, 2023

On September 25, 2023, an American League West matchup is set to take place at Angel Stadium, where the Los Angeles Angels will play host to the Texas Rangers. The Angels, currently sitting in fourth place in the division, have had a tough season with a record of 70-86. Despite being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the team looks to find motivation in their remaining games.The Angels are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Sandoval, while the Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jon Gray. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Sandoval is ranked 46th among MLB starting pitchers, indicating that he is a good pitcher. Meanwhile, Gray is ranked 89th, suggesting he is above average. Sandoval has started 27 games this season, with a record of 7-13 and an ERA of 4.19, which is above average. However, his SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) suggests that he has been lucky this year and may perform worse going forward. Gray, on the other hand, has started 28 games with a record of 8-8 and an ERA of 4.22, also above average. In terms of team rankings, the Angels have the 24th best record in MLB this year, but our Power Rankings place them as the 5th best team, indicating potential underperformance. Their offense ranks 14th in MLB, with an average team batting average of .000. However, they excel in home runs, ranking 3rd in the league. The Rangers, with the 6th best record in MLB, are considered the 27th best team by our Power Rankings, suggesting potential overperformance. Their offense ranks 3rd in MLB, with a strong team batting average and home run ranking.Looking at the projected performances, Sandoval is expected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, while Gray is projected for 5.1 innings. Sandoval is projected to allow more hits and walks compared to his counterpart, which could pose a challenge for him. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating an expectation of a high-scoring game.Based on the current odds, the Angels are considered underdogs with an implied win probability of 37%. The Rangers, as the favorites, have an implied win probability of 63%. The Sharp Model X projects both teams to score an average of 0.00 runs in this game, suggesting a potentially low-scoring affair, but these projections should be taken with caution.<h2>Rangers Insights</h2><ul><li>Jon Gray's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (57.5% compared to 49.4% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.</li><li>The Los Angeles Angels have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corey Seager can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.</li><li>Jonah Heim, the Rangers's expected catcher in today's game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model).</li></ul><h2>Angels Insights</h2><ul><li>Patrick Sandoval&rsquo;s fastball velocity over his last 3 GS (93.4 mph) has been a considerable increase over than his seasonal rate (92.4 mph).</li><li>As it relates to his batting average, Mike Moustakas has had positive variance on his side this year. His .255 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .201.</li><li>According to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in the league.</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+11.14 Units / 20% ROI)</li><li>The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 82 of their last 148 games (+22.69 Units / 11% ROI)</li><li>Corey Seager has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 44 games (+5.75 Units / 11% ROI)</li></ul>

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