<h5>Frequentist vs. Bayesian in Sports Betting</h5>In sports betting, as in other areas of statistical analysis, there are two main approaches to estimating the probability of an event occurring: the frequentist approach and the Bayesian approach. These approaches differ in how they handle uncertainty and how they update their beliefs about the probability of different events occurring.The frequentist approach is based on the idea of repeated sampling and assumes that the probability of an event occurring is fixed, but unknown. In this approach, the probability of an event occurring is estimated based on the frequency with which the event occurs in a large number of samples or trials. For example, suppose we want to estimate the probability of Team A winning a hockey game. In that case, we could gather data on the outcomes of a large number of previous games and calculate the proportion of games that Team A won. This proportion would be our estimate of the probability of Team A winning the game.The Bayesian approach, on the other hand, is based on the idea of subjective probability and allows for the incorporation of prior beliefs and additional information as it becomes available. In this approach, the probability of an event occurring is viewed as a degree of belief that is updated as new data is collected. For example, suppose we want to estimate the probability of Team A winning a football game. In that case, we could start with a prior belief about the probability of this event occurring based on factors such as the teams' past performance, current form, and injuries. We could then use Bayes' theorem to update this belief as we collect more data about the game, such as the teams' recent marks and injuries.Overall, the main difference between the frequentist and Bayesian approaches in sports betting is that the frequentist approach estimates the probability of an event occurring based on the frequency of the event in a large number of samples. In contrast, the Bayesian approach allows for incorporating prior beliefs and additional information as it becomes available. Both approaches have their strengths and limitations and can be used to make informed predictions about the outcomes of games and to improve the chances of making successful bets.<h5>Example of Bayesian approach in sports betting</h5>Suppose we want to make a bet on the outcome of a basketball game between Team A and Team B. We can start by defining a hypothesis about each team's probability of winning the game. This hypothesis, also known as a prior belief, can be based on various factors such as the teams' past performance, current form, and injuries.For example, let's say our initial prior belief about the probability of Team A winning the game is 0.4, and our initial prior belief about the probability of Team B winning the game is 0.6. These prior beliefs could be based on our analysis of the team's past performance, current form, and injuries, as well as any additional information available to us.Once we have defined our prior beliefs about the probability of each team winning the game, we can use Bayes' theorem to update these beliefs as we collect more data. Bayes' theorem states that the posterior probability of a hypothesis (in this case, the probability of a team winning the game) is equal to the prior probability of the hypothesis multiplied by the likelihood of the data given the hypothesis, divided by the probability of the data. This can be written mathematically as:P(H|D) = (P(D|H) * P(H)) / P(D)where P(H|D) is the posterior probability of the hypothesis (the probability of a team winning the game) given the data (information about the game such as the teams' past performance, current form, and injuries), P(D|H) is the likelihood of the data given the hypothesis (the probability of the data occurring given the probability of a team winning the game), P(H) is the prior probability of the hypothesis (our initial belief about the probability of a team winning the game), and P(D) is the probability of the data (the probability of the data occurring).As the game progresses, we can use Bayes' theorem to update our beliefs about the probability of each team winning the game based on new information that becomes available. For example, if Team A takes an early lead and is ahead by 10 points at halftime, we might update our belief about the probability of Team A winning the game. If we plug these values into the equation above, we might get:P(H|D) = (P(D|H) * P(H)) / P(D) = (0.9 * 0.4) / (0.9 * 0.4 + 0.1 * 0.6) = 0.36 / 0.46 = 0.78This means that our updated belief about the probability of Team A winning the game is 0.78, which is higher than our initial belief of 0.4. Based on this updated belief, we might decide to make a bet on Team A to win the game with a live bet if the odds justify it.Of course, this is just a simple example, and in practice, we would likely have more data and a more complex model to estimate the probability of each team winning the game. However, the basic idea is the same: we start with a prior belief about the probability of an event occurring (in this case, a team winning a game), and use Bayes' theorem to update this belief as we collect more data. By doing so, we can make more informed predictions about the outcomes of games and improve our chances of making successful bets.

Untitled Image

The Frequentist vs. Bayesian in Sports Betting

NBA Prop betting is quickly becoming one of the most popular forms of sports betting. Understanding the value of each prop is essential to making a profit on props. Watch this simple tutorial on how to calculate the value of a prop and determine whether you should be making a bet or not.<a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Join Our Discord Discussion</a>

Advanced

How to Find The Most Profitable Props in NBA and More - Advanced Lesson 2

Most of today's profitable sports bettors are using models to help them handicap. In this lesson in the Sharp Academy, you will learn how to build a Linear Regression model.Using the Linear Regression model you can find out which statistics have the most predictive qualities for any sport you are modeling. Combine these stats to build a model that can tell you what the scoring margin (spread) should be. Compare that to the actual line and see if there is value to be had.As you improve your skills you will get more creative and build better models. <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">We would love to help you with any questions you may have. Join our discord chat, for free, to ask questions and meet our coaches as well as fellow sports handicappers like yourself</a>.<a href="https://sharpbets.app" title="">Check out our website</a>

Make Money Building A Simple Sports Betting Model | Linear Regression Advanced Lesson 3

Finding value is how professional sports bettors determine which games they are going to bet on. It is a simple concept but one that is hard to execute. In this lesson from our Sharp Academy series, we show you how to calculate the line for the game and total once you have an expected score projected for each team.This method is going to work for low scoring sports like NHL, MLB and soccer. For NFL and NBA we will have different methods to determine value when handicapping.

Create Your Own Lines - Advanced Level Lesson 4

With so many prop bets being offered at sportsbooks, they have become a popular bet for sports bettors. Those with a background in DFS or fantasy sports like football or basketball will take to prop betting quite easily.You may be able to calculate your own fantasy projections or you may get projections from a reliable source. What you may not know how to do is calculate what the fair line should be based on that projection. In this video John &quot;Statsational&quot; Alesia will take you through the way to calculate many of these prop bets using Poisson.If you have prop betting questions or want to learn more about sports betting head on over to our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord Chat</a>

Calculating Props In Sports Betting - Poisson Distribution - Advanced Level Lesson 1

The basics on how to bet on the spread in sports betting. Here is the formula to calculate what the breakeven point for the &quot;juice&quot; would be. The formula for a minus juice (a negative number i.e. -110)-line/(100-line)The formula for plus juice (a positive number i.e. +105)100/(100+line) In the video, John talks about -110 juice being a 52.4% breakeven point. -(-110)/(100-(-110))110/210=52.4%For +105 juice 100/(105+100)100/205 = 48.8%To learn more about sports betting join our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord chat</a>

Beginner Level

How to bet against the "Spread" - Beginner Level Lesson 1

I will explain to you how the money line works in sports betting.The money line bet is a straight-up bet on which team or player will win a game. The only thing that matters is that they win. They do not need to win by a certain amount of points, like a spread bet. You probably made bets like this in the past with friends. In the video, we go over an example bet on shooting a free throw.Moneyline betting is the simplest form of betting. You just need to pick a winner.The video will also go into detail on how the money line is used to calculate the probability of an event occurring and vice versa.If you have money line questions or want to learn more about sports betting head on over to our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord Chat</a>

Moneyline Bet Explained - Beginner Level Lesson 2

One of the more overlooked yet most important aspects of gambling is sports betting bankroll management and money management.The most important thing for every business is to stay in business.&nbsp; It is impossible to make money when you have to lock your doors.&nbsp; As a sports bettor, this applies to you as well.&nbsp; You need to treat your sports betting like a business.&nbsp; If you have no money to bet with you can no longer make money. So more important than anything else is sports betting bankroll management.<ul><li>Set aside a certain amount for each season, sport, month or any other way you want to do it.&nbsp; The most important thing is to actually put that money on the side.&nbsp; This is not the money you need for daily expenses.&nbsp; The funds here are strictly for sports betting.</li><li>Based on your bankroll you will risk 1-2% of it per bet.&nbsp; As a casual player, you do not want to risk any more than that.&nbsp; Once you build a model that works and you have an edge you may vary bet sizes.</li><li>For ML bets you will want to focus on the &ldquo;to risk&rdquo; number and not the &ldquo;to win&rdquo; number.&nbsp; Again, this will change when you get to be more advanced but for now, you want to keep the risks minimal.&nbsp; For beginners, I suggest betting to WIN 1% to 2% of your bankroll or your typical unit size.&nbsp; &nbsp;For a -200 favorite, you&rsquo;ll be risking 2 units to win 1 unit. For a +200 dog, you&rsquo;ll be risking .5 units to win 1 unit.</li><li>You could &ldquo;reset&rdquo; your bankroll after certain periods of time.&nbsp; For instance each month you can assess where you are and update your bankroll and as such your base bet amount.&nbsp; If you start with a $5,000 bankroll and win $500 over the course of a month you can up your bets by 10%.&nbsp; If you were betting $100 per game you can now increase to $110.&nbsp; The caveat here is you must be banking the winnings.&nbsp; Just because you won $500 doesn&rsquo;t mean you have $500 unless you added it to your bankroll.</li></ul>&nbsp;Before getting into some more advanced strategies I use to determine my bet sizing I want you to understand the bullet points above and why I think sports betting risk management is important.Almost everyone who has bet on sports for any significant amount of time, myself included, has chased a bad streak and bet way more than they should be betting to &ldquo;get it all back&rdquo;.&nbsp; Back in 1997, I was betting games for $50 to $100 a game.&nbsp; It was very recreational.&nbsp; Based on my rules above I was still betting more than I really could afford to bet but on a per-game basis, it really didn&rsquo;t seem like a lot.One bored Tuesday night I decided to play some NBA.&nbsp; I forget the exact game but I know it was a bad beat that started to put me on tilt.&nbsp; I was only down $55 on Wednesday but I was determined to get it back.&nbsp; Of course, I lost on Wednesday and Thursday and was now down approximately $500.&nbsp; While I had the $500 I really wasn&rsquo;t keen on parting with it.&nbsp; I thought perhaps I could bet some NHL favorites on the money line to get my $500 back.&nbsp; Now mind you I did not follow hockey very closely and I had never bet on the NHL before but this was my master plan to get back to even.&nbsp; I call in my 3 NHL ML favorite bets for $200 each.&nbsp; Surely they would all win and I could get back to even, or close to it, and then bet my $50-$100 again as if nothing happened.&nbsp; In case you could not guess they all lost.I was now down over the limit I could bet per game.&nbsp; I think it was only $500 and they allowed me to go up to $1000 which was still less than I owed.&nbsp; I was watching the NHL games lose at a bar with some friends.&nbsp; As the drinks flowed I started to pump myself up for the 2 Saturday NFL games that were being played the next day.&nbsp; The Giants were hosting the Redskins in the early game.&nbsp; By the time 3 AM rolled around I was confident the Giants would roll Washington.&nbsp; The plan was to put $1000 on the Giants and that would get me back to a number just a couple of days earlier I was pissed about owing.&nbsp; But hey it is all about perspective.In my early 20&rsquo;s waking up early after a night of drinking without setting an alarm was never happening.&nbsp; This Saturday was no different.&nbsp; I woke up at 12:35 PM and the Giants kicked off at 12:30 PM.&nbsp; I tried calling the bookie but they would not take the action.&nbsp; As the Giants were rolling on their way to a 30-10 win I sat there depressed that I finally had the winner and I missed the bet.A buddy of mine had an uncle who was a bookmaker working in Aruba.&nbsp; He would on occasion let us know who the sharp guys liked.&nbsp; I needed his help now more than ever.&nbsp; I called Uncle Dino and asked him who the sharps liked.&nbsp; He tells me they are on Kentucky in college hoops.&nbsp; Kentucky was a 17 point favorite over Georgia Tech at home.&nbsp; The game started at 2:00 PM.&nbsp; I decide I will put $500 on Kentucky to cover on the advice of Uncle Dino.&nbsp; I do not believe at any point in the game was Kentucky covering the 17.&nbsp; They wound up winning by 14.&nbsp; The hole had been dug even deeper.I had no opinion of the second NFL game of the day New England and Pittsburgh.&nbsp; I tried Dino again.&nbsp; He said the sharps aren&rsquo;t taking the game but every sucker likes Pittsburgh +2.&nbsp; Looks like the Patriots will be bailing me out.&nbsp; I call the bookie and ask if I can put $1500 on the game.&nbsp; They allow it.&nbsp; I take the Patriots -2 for $1500.&nbsp; Up 21-13, Drew Bledsoe is facing a 3rd and 7 with just over 2 minutes left in the game at midfield.&nbsp; The Steelers call their final timeout.&nbsp; The situation screamed for a pass to get the first down and end the game.&nbsp; I turn to my buddy and said, we need a pass but let it be over the middle in case it is picked so less chance they can return it.&nbsp; No sooner do I say it Bledsoe gets picked on the sideline and nearly returned for a TD.&nbsp; There was an illegal forward pitch on the return so the ball ends up on the 18-yard line.&nbsp; I do not know why but I was still optimistic. Even if they scored they still needed to convert the 2 pts or else I push and if they convert I can win in OT.&nbsp; With 38 seconds to go 3rd and goal from the 1, Kordell Stewart passes to TE Mark Bruener for the 1 yard TD.&nbsp; The two-point conversion was successful and we were heading to OT.&nbsp; My hopes of winning the coin flip were quickly erased and the Steelers would get the ball first.&nbsp; Now I needed a stop.&nbsp; The Steelers would start on their own 26-yard line.&nbsp; First down was incomplete.&nbsp; They ran it to Bettis on second down for a 5-yard loss.&nbsp; I am feeling really good now.&nbsp; We are going to stop them and get good field position to win this game.&nbsp; 3rd and 15 from the 21 Stewart connects with Courtney Hawkins for 41 yards and right on the cusp of FG range.&nbsp; Pitt would move the ball 25 more yards to make the game-winning chip shot FG and crush me yet again.&nbsp; After that game, I made the smartest move I had all week and that was to call it quits and pay off what I owed.&nbsp; It would be months before I would bet a game again because I did not have the funds to do so.That story is funny in retrospect and many of you have your own similar stories.&nbsp; The key point of it is how starting with a $50 bet can snowball into betting $1500 just to break even or minimize the losses.&nbsp; Chasing a bad streak can get costly very quickly.&nbsp; Since that time I learned to be much more disciplined.&nbsp; And certainly doing it professionally you are either disciplined or you will go broke very quickly.&nbsp; In my story above I had no set bankroll so I am not sure even a $50 bet was the proper bet size for me.&nbsp; But I know $200 wasn&rsquo;t and $1500 was probably more than I was willing to risk for the season let alone one game.&nbsp; For argument&rsquo;s sake, let&rsquo;s say I had a $2000 bankroll.&nbsp; I should have been betting $40 per game.&nbsp; The bad beat on Tuesday would have had me down $44.&nbsp; By Friday I would have been down $132.&nbsp; I wouldn&rsquo;t have chased with the NHL games that I knew little about.&nbsp; Assuming I wake up at a decent hour I put $44 on the giants and win to knock my total to -$88.&nbsp; I never touch Kentucky or the Patriots because I would not be searching for a game to get me out of a major hole.&nbsp; I am not sure how I would have fared on Sunday in the NFL but there is a decent chance I would have been able to get close to even if not make a few bucks.&nbsp; Instead, the lack of discipline caused me to lose over $3000 and quit doing something I enjoyed doing.I said I would give some more advanced techniques I use when it comes to bet sizing.&nbsp; In my rules above I said you should be betting to WIN 1 unit, not risk.&nbsp; The reason for this is there may be great value in a +2000 bet but it still won&rsquo;t win very often.&nbsp; Risking 1 unit on something that will happen once in 20 tries is a good way to go broke quickly.Some of the most money I have ever made in sports betting was on the World Cup in 2014.&nbsp; The biggest winner I had was on Costa Rica to win their Group.&nbsp; My numbers did not think Costa Rica would win but it showed the price being offered was better than it should have been.&nbsp; In other words, there was value there.&nbsp; The line to win the group was +4000.&nbsp; I estimated their likelihood of winning the group at 10%.&nbsp; &nbsp;At 40 to 1 the market was giving them a 2.43% chance to win.&nbsp; Even if my numbers were correct there was a pretty high probability they were not going to win.&nbsp; But I have a huge edge here and when I see an edge I exploit it.&nbsp; The primary reason for this edge was who comprised the group with Costa Rica.&nbsp; They were put in with England, Italy, and Uruguay.&nbsp; Basically 3 teams with championship dreams and Costa Rica.&nbsp; But because the public overvalues these big names we found value in a country nobody expected anything from.Let&rsquo;s look the way I played this and how I play all money line bets in which I have a perceived edge.Firstly I want to figure out how much of an edge I have.&nbsp; I like to figure out my expected value.&nbsp; I will go into more detail on expected value in a future post but essentially it was what you can expect to win or lose each time you play this scenario.To make it easy we will use a unit size of $1,000 and at 40 to 1 the risk would normally be $25 to win $1000$1000 * 10%(my probability to win) &ndash; $25 * 90%(my probability to lose) = $77.5Over time I can expect to make $77.5 on this bet.&nbsp; That is a pretty nice return on $25 of risk.&nbsp; Because of this, I want to play a bit more aggressively.&nbsp; Typically you will not see an edge this large.&nbsp; I am usually looking for a 5% edge or more before I play a game.&nbsp; But in this case, I had a 310% edge.&nbsp; Depending upon how much risk you want to take on you need to figure out how much more you will play based on the edge you have.&nbsp; The riskiest strategy I would employ is for every 5% of edge you increase by 1 unit to win.&nbsp; If we had an edge of 10% the bet size would double to $50.&nbsp; This actually works fairly well most of the time because finding edges much greater than 10-20% are tough to come by.&nbsp; But in a situation like this, I would actually be risking 1.55x my unit size on a 40 to 1 bet.&nbsp; That is just too much risk for me.&nbsp; You could change the ratio of edge to unit size increase.&nbsp; Perhaps every 10% or 20% increase in edge constitutes an increase in 1 unit to win.&nbsp; Or you can cap it at a certain amount.&nbsp; For this bet, I capped my risk at $200 which is 8x what a normal bet would be.&nbsp; What also needed to be factored in was I would be betting on CR to advance as well as most games have them as a win bet.&nbsp; So, on the whole, I had a lot of risk on one team.Costa Rica wound up winning their group.&nbsp; My European colleagues thought I was some sort of clairvoyant. Our Paris office wanted to know how I knew it would happen.&nbsp; &nbsp;In actuality, I didn&rsquo;t know they would win.&nbsp; I just knew the line was off. I was lucky that my 1 in 10 shot came in.&nbsp; &nbsp;The bets to have them advance obviously paid off as well as did the bets on their matches.That brings me to my portfolio risk.&nbsp; My background is in currency trading.&nbsp; With currencies, you are buying and selling one currency against another.&nbsp; If I am bullish on the Candian Dollar against the US Dollar and take positions backing my view I need to know what my total exposure is to Candian Dollar in my entire portfolio.&nbsp; Perhaps I am long against other currencies as well and I do not want to put too much risk on one currency.&nbsp; Factoring in your total risk on a side is important in determining bet sizing.&nbsp; If you like a side ATS as well as in a teaser and also in a parlay well a normal 1 unit bet on each is exposing you more than you want to be exposed on that side.&nbsp; You will have 3 units at risk when you really wanted approximately 1 unit.&nbsp; On the parlay assuming 2 teams at -110 that pays out +260 you will be risking enough to win 1 unit normally.&nbsp; That would be about .4 units.&nbsp; If one side is going to be played ATS and in a teaser maybe we cut that bet by 33%.&nbsp; We now have a risk of .07 units on the parlay with .33 units on the ATS and .33 on the teaser.&nbsp; The total risk on this side is now .73 units.There is obviously some leeway to exactly how you want to manage your risk but understand you actually have to manage your risk!&nbsp; These tips and examples will hopefully start you on the right path to profitability and longevity.

Bankroll Management - Beginner Level Lesson 3

Sports betting is more than just picking the right team. Get some tips on how to become a winning sports bettor from John &quot;Statsational&quot; Alesia. Learn sports betting strategies and tips to further your sports betting education.In this video✓Ego and its effects on your mental state✓Betting on softer early lines✓Why Do Lines Move?✓Bet on Sports not everyone else is betting on✓Have multiple sportsbooks✓Track your bets with a bet trackerSome other videos of interest<a href="https://youtu.be/5bd6jW30AmM" title="">Bankroll Management</a><a href="https://youtu.be/GNG_NXllmME" title="">Props 1</a><a href="https://youtu.be/6KAOx26hEB8" title="">Props 2</a>J<a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">oin the Sports Bet Army in Discord</a>

Sports Betting Tips and Strategies - Beginner Level Lesson 4

Totals wagers are more commonly referred to as an Over/Under bet. The name of the wager is interchangeable and both are used in sportsbooks. A totals bet is one of the easiest and most popular bets to make when betting on sports. The only bet that is more popular is spread betting. You can bet totals on most major professional sports such as football, basketball, baseball, and hockey.In most cases, when wagering on a total the bettor is simply choosing whether the total number of points scored by both teams will be over or under the listed total of points to be scored. That&rsquo;s it. The winner and loser of the game don&rsquo;t matter in a totals bet. The only thing that matters with this kind of bet is the number of points (runs, goals, etc.) scored.To learn more about betting totals head over to our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord Chat</a> and join the discussion

How To Bet On Totals and Over Unders - Beginner Level Lesson 5

Teasers may seem more complicated than they really are. A teaser is nothing more than a parlay on an alternative line on a sports bet spread or total. In this quick video, we break down exactly what teasers are and how to play them.If you have teaser questions or want to learn more about sports betting head on over to our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord Chat</a>

How to bet Teasers - Beginner Level Lesson 6

The Kelly Criterion is a popular formula used to determine the optimal size of a bet in order to maximize the growth rate of a bankroll over time. In sports betting, it can be used to calculate the ideal unit size for each bet, depending on the probability of winning and the payout of the bet.The basic idea behind the Kelly Criterion is to bet a proportion of your bankroll that is proportional to your edge over the odds. The formula is typically presented as: f* = (bp - q) / b, where f* is the fraction of the bankroll to bet, b is the net odds received on the bet, p is the probability of winning, and q is the probability of losing.For example, let's say you have a bankroll of $1000 and you come across a bet with odds of +150 (meaning a $100 bet would return $150 if you win) and a 60% chance of winning. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the optimal unit size for this bet would be 0.2 (or 20% of your bankroll). This means that you would bet $200 on this game.It's important to note that the Kelly Criterion formula assumes that the bettor has an edge over the odds, which is not always the case in sports betting. It also assumes that the bettor has a large enough bankroll to withstand the volatility that comes with betting a large percentage of their bankroll on a single game.For those who are new to sports betting, it's recommended to use a smaller percentage of your bankroll for each bet until you have a better understanding of the sport and the teams you are betting on. This will help to minimize potential losses and help you to build your bankroll over time.In addition, it's important to remember that the Kelly Criterion is a guide and not a guarantee of success. It's always important to have discipline and not to chase losses. It's also important to use the Kelly Criterion in combination with other strategies and techniques when making betting decisions.In conclusion, the Kelly Criterion is a useful tool for determining the optimal unit size for sports betting. It takes into account the probability of winning and the payout of the bet, and can help to maximize the growth rate of a bankroll over time. However, it's important to remember that it's only one of many tools that should be used when making betting decisions, and to always have discipline and not chase losses.

Kelly Criterion

Unit size discipline is the key to becoming a successful sports bettor

The Kelly Criterion is a useful formula for determining the optimal unit size for sports betting. It takes into account the probability of winning and the payout of the bet, and can help to maximize the growth rate of a bankroll over time. However, it's important to remember that it's only one of many tools that should be used when making betting decisions, and to always have discipline and not chase losses.

Using The Kelly Criterion To Determine Unit Size For Sports Bets

The halo effect is a psychological phenomenon that occurs when a person's overall impression of an individual or concept influences their judgment of that individual or concept's specific traits. In sports betting, the halo effect can significantly impact how bettors perceive and analyze the chances of a particular team or player winning a game or competition.One example of the halo effect in sports betting is when a team or player is perceived as being particularly skilled or successful, bettors may overestimate their chances of winning in future games or competitions. This can lead to bettors placing disproportionately large bets on this team or player, even if the odds of them winning may not necessarily justify such a bet.Conversely, the halo effect can also work in the opposite direction, with bettors underestimating the chances of a team or player being perceived as less skilled or successful. This can lead to bettors placing disproportionately low bets on this team or player, even if their chances of winning may be higher than expected.The halo effect can also be influenced by external factors such as media coverage and public perception. For example, a team or player that receives positive media attention may be perceived as more likely to win. In contrast, a team or player that receives negative media attention may be perceived as less likely to win.To avoid the influence of the halo effect in sports betting, bettors need to analyze the specific factors that can impact a team or player's chances of winning rather than relying solely on overall perceptions or external factors. This includes evaluating the team or player's current form, the strength of their opposition, and any injuries or other factors that may impact their performance.By considering these factors, bettors can make more informed and unbiased decisions when placing bets rather than letting the halo effect cloud their judgment.The halo effect can lead us to overestimate the chances of a team or athlete based on their past performance or other positive qualities rather than objectively evaluating their current form. Here are a few tips to help you avoid the halo effect when making sports bets:<ol><li>Focus on objective data: Rather than relying on subjective impressions of a team or athlete, try to base your bets on objective data and statistics. This can include a team's win-loss record, their scoring margin, the strength of their defense or offense, and the performance of individual players.</li><li>Don't let your biases influence your bets: It's natural to have favorite teams or athletes, but try not to let these biases cloud your judgment when making bets. It's important to be objective and consider all the relevant information rather than just rooting for your favorite team to win.</li><li>Consider the context of the game: Don't just look at a team's overall record or the performance of individual players. Consider the specific context of the game you are betting on, including factors like the game's location, the weather, and any injuries or other factors that might affect the outcome.</li><li>Don't get caught up in media hype: The media often focuses on certain teams or athletes, which can create a distorted view of their chances of success. Try to tune out the noise and focus on your own analysis of the game.</li></ol>Following these tips can help avoid the halo effect and make more informed sports bets.

What is the Halo Effect and How Does it Pertain To Sports Betting?

The Martingale system is a betting strategy popularized in gambling circles, particularly sports betting. It is based on the idea of doubling one's bet after each loss, hoping to win back the original stake and make a profit eventually. While the Martingale system may seem like a surefire way to win at sports betting, it is a high-risk strategy that is not recommended for anyone looking to make a long-term profit.Let's look at an example to understand how the Martingale system works. Suppose you are betting on a football game, and you place a bet of $100 on the home team to win. If the home team loses, you would double your bet to $200 on the next game. If you lose again, you would double your bet once more to $400. This pattern would continue until you eventually win a bet, at which point you could recoup your losses and make a profit.At first glance, the Martingale system may seem like a foolproof way to win at sports betting. After all, if you keep doubling your bet, you will win eventually, right? However, there are several problems with this approach.First and foremost, the Martingale system relies on an infinite bankroll. In other words, you need to have an unlimited amount of money to keep doubling your bets indefinitely. In the real world, this is not possible. Most sports bettors have a limited amount of money to work with, and if they keep losing and doubling their bets, they will eventually run out of money.Another problem with the Martingale system is that it relies on the idea of &quot;gambler's fallacy.&quot; This is the belief that if something has happened a certain number of times in a row, it is less likely to happen again in the future. In sports betting, this means that if you have lost several bets in a row, you are more likely to win the next one. However, this is not how probability works. Each bet is an independent event, and the outcome of one bet has no bearing on the outcome of the next.Finally, the Martingale system is risky because it requires you to bet large amounts of money to win back smaller amounts. This is a dangerous proposition, as it can lead to excessive risk-taking and potentially ruinous losses.In conclusion, the Martingale system is a high-risk betting strategy that is not recommended for anyone looking to make a long-term profit in sports betting. While it may seem like a surefire way to win, it relies on an infinite bankroll, gambler's fallacy, and excessive risk-taking, all of which can ultimately lead to financial ruin. It is always important to remember that sports betting is a form of entertainment and should be approached with caution and careful consideration.

The Martingale System In Sports Betting

The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal size of a bet or investment in a situation where the potential for gain and loss is known. It is based on the idea of maximizing the long-term growth rate of an investment portfolio(bankroll), while also taking into account the potential risk of ruin.The Kelly criterion can be expressed as follows:Fraction of bankroll to bet = W &ndash; [(1 &ndash; W) / RWhere:<ul><li>Fraction of bankroll to bet is the percentage of the bankroll that should be placed on a given bet.</li><li>W is the probability of winning the bet.</li><li>R is the expected return on the bet, expressed as a multiple of the original stake.</li></ul>The Kelly criterion can be used in various situations, such as stock investing, sports betting, and gambling. It is based on the assumption that the investor or gambler has a reliable estimate of the probability of winning and the expected return on the bet or investment. It is important to note that the Kelly criterion is a theoretical model and may not always produce optimal results in practice due to the limitations of real-world data and the complexity of financial markets.Here is an example of using the Kelly criterion to determine the optimal size of a sports bet:Suppose you are considering making a bet on a soccer match, and you believe that the probability of your team winning is 60%. The sportsbook offers odds of +200, which means that if you win the bet, you will receive a return of 2 times your original stake.To use the Kelly criterion, we can plug these values into the formula like this:Fraction of bankroll to bet = 0.6 &ndash; [(1 &ndash; 0.6) / 2] = 0.2According to the Kelly criterion, you should bet 20% of your bankroll on this game. So if you have a bankroll of $1,000, you should place a bet of $200 on your team to maximize your long-term growth potential.<h5>The Dangers</h5>One of the main dangers of using the Kelly criterion is that it assumes that the bettor has a precise and accurate estimate of the probability of winning a particular bet. In reality, however, it is often difficult to estimate the probability of a sports event with any degree of accuracy. This can lead to overconfidence in one's predictions, leading to excessive betting and potentially significant losses.Another danger of the Kelly criterion is that it assumes that the bettor has an unlimited bankroll and that their betting strategy can be adjusted based on the size of their bankroll. In practice, however, most sports bettors have limited funds, and betting too aggressively can lead to financial ruin.Finally, the Kelly criterion does not account for the psychological factors influencing betting behavior, such as the desire to recoup losses or the temptation to chase after wins. These factors can lead to irrational betting decisions, which can undermine the effectiveness of the Kelly criterion and result in even larger losses.In conclusion, while the Kelly criterion can be a useful tool for sports bettors, it is important to use it with caution and consider the formula's limitations. Betting too aggressively can lead to significant losses, and it is essential always to maintain discipline and to bet within one's means.

What is The Kelly Criterion?

Expected Value in sports betting is one of the most important concepts when trying to make a profit. Understanding the expected value when analyzing potential bets will guide you in making sharper bets over time. In this video the expected value is explained as well as calculated for you. Understand how you should be using EV to determine which bets you should be making.

Intermediate Level

What is Expected Value - Intermediate Level Lesson 1

Flat betting and variable bet sizing can both be profitable in sports betting. Variable sports bets can be riskier and require a bit more sophistication. In this video learn how to develop a variable bet sizing strategy that fits you.Join us in our free <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord Chat</a> to learn more about bet sizing and all things sports betting

Flat vs Variable Bet Sizing - Intermediate Level Lesson 2

<h4>Opening Line</h4>The opening line at a sportsbook is the initial set of odds offered on a particular sporting event. Most sportsbooks use computer programs or algorithms to help generate odds and lines. These programs often rely on data and statistical analysis to determine the probability of each team or athlete winning.&nbsp;Once the opening line is set, it can be adjusted based on the volume and type of bets being placed, as well as other factors that may affect the outcome of the event. For example, if a significant number of bets are placed on one team, the sportsbook may adjust the odds to balance the risk and protect against potential losses.<h4>Sharp Money Moving a Line</h4>&quot;Sharp money&quot; refers to bets placed by professional or knowledgeable bettors, who are often referred to as &quot;sharps.&quot; Sharps are often very knowledgeable about the teams or athletes involved in a particular event and may have insights that are not reflected in the initial lines or odds offered by a sportsbook.If a sportsbook detects that sharp bettors are heavily betting on one side of a bet, it may adjust the line to protect against potential losses. This is because sharp bettors are often seen as more reliable indicators of the true probability of an event than the general betting public, who may be influenced by factors such as bias or emotions.For example, if a sportsbook receives a large number of bets on one team from sharp bettors, it may adjust the line to attract more bets on the other team. This helps the sportsbook balance the risk of accepting bets and protect against potential losses.Overall, sharp money can impact line movement at a sportsbook, but it is only one factor that is considered when adjusting lines. Sportsbooks also consider other factors, such as changes in the underlying event, the betting patterns of the general public, and the need to balance the risk of accepting bets. Sharp app pro subscribers have seen this first hand. Our Top Prop NBA bets can move the line rather quickly.<h4>Reading Line Moves</h4>Line moves can be an important tool for sports bettors because they can provide insight into the betting patterns and expectations of other bettors and the sportsbook itself. By understanding the factors driving line moves, bettors can better understand the true probability of an event and potentially make more informed betting decisions.<ol><li>Look for reverse line moves:&nbsp;A reverse line move occurs when the line moves in the opposite direction of where the money is being bet. This can indicate that sharp bettors, who are often seen as more knowledgeable and reliable indicators of the true probability of an event, are heavily betting on that side. You can read the Sharp Report in the content section of the Sharp App to see where the sharps and public (squares) are putting their money. Look at the handles in the game center for the bet%(# of tickets) and money% being bet on each side. If the line seems to be moving against where the money is being bet, it may indicate sharp money.</li><li>Monitor line moves over time:Lines can frequently change, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. By monitoring line moves over time, bettors can better understand the overall trend and make more informed betting decisions. When viewing the gamecenter in the app, you will see a chart of the line moves from the open up until the current line.</li><li>Watch out for steam:A steam move refers to a sudden and significant line move in a particular betting market. These moves are often caused by a large number of bets being placed on one side of a game, which can result in the line moving quickly and dramatically. Steam moves are often associated with sharp or professional bettors.</li><li>Consider other factors:In addition to line moves, bettors should also consider other factors that may affect the outcome of the event, such as injuries, weather conditions, and home-field advantage. By taking these factors into account, bettors can get a complete picture of the true probability of the event.</li></ol><h4>Conclusion</h4>Line moves can be a valuable tool for sports bettors looking to gain an edge in their betting. By understanding how and why lines move, and using advanced betting strategies, bettors can better understand the betting patterns and expectations of other bettors and the sportsbook. By considering these factors, bettors can make more informed betting decisions and potentially increase their chances of winning. The Sharp App gives you the same information the professionals use when analyzing line moves.<a href="https://discord.gg/sharp-app-sports-betting-750497266552537217" title="">Join thousands of like minded sports bettors along with the pros in our discord to learn more about how to read line moves.</a>

How Can A Bettor Use Line Movements To Make Sharper Bets?

<h4>How Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling in the Sharp App are Helping Sports Bettors</h4>The Sharp App is a comprehensive sports betting information app that offers users a range of tools, models, content, expert picks, props, bet tracking and AI-powered models to help them make informed betting decisions. One of the key ways that the Sharp App is leveraging technology to improve sports betting is through the use of data analysis and predictive modeling. In this article, we'll explore how these technologies are being used in the Sharp App and the benefits they offer to users.<h4>What are Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling?</h4>Data analysis is the process of examining large amounts of data to identify patterns and trends. This can be done manually, but more commonly, it is done using specialized software tools that can quickly process and analyze large datasets. On the other hand, predictive modeling involves using data analysis to build models that can predict future outcomes. For example, based on past performance data, a predictive model might be used to predict the likelihood of a particular sports team winning a game.<h4>How are Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling Used in the Sharp App?</h4>The Sharp App uses data analysis and predictive modeling in several ways, including:<ol><li>Predictive models: The Sharp App offers users access to various predictive models built by our pros to help them make more informed betting decisions. These models use data analysis to identify trends and patterns that might influence the outcome of a game and provide users with probabilities for each outcome.</li><li>Expert picks: The Sharp App also offers users access to expert picks from industry professionals who use data analysis and predictive modeling to make informed betting recommendations.</li><li>Props: The Sharp App offers an analysis of props that are based on data analysis and predictive modeling. The Top Props article and Top Props tool in the Sharp App provide users with the daily bets our models and experts think are the best value.</li><li>AI-powered features: AI and machine learning are used in the Sharp App in a variety of ways, including creating advanced predictive models that analyze large amounts of data on teams, players, and past games to identify trends and patterns that might influence the outcome of a game; suggesting bets to users, and identifying value bets. By leveraging the power of AI and advanced data analysis, the Sharp App provides users with more accurate and detailed predictions that help them make more informed betting decisions.</li><li>Bet Tracking: The Sharp App's bet tracking feature is another way that data analysis and predictive modeling are being used to improve sports betting. This feature allows users to keep track of the size, the odds, and the outcome of their bets. By analyzing this data, users can identify trends and patterns in their betting behavior and adjust their betting strategy if needed. Overall, the bet tracking feature is a valuable tool for users who want to understand their betting habits better and improve their chances of success.</li></ol>Overall, the data analysis and predictive modeling features of the Sharp App are designed to help users make more informed and accurate betting decisions and increase their chances of success.<a href="https://discord.gg/sharp-app-sports-betting-750497266552537217" title="">Join the thousands in our discord and talk to our pros about how the Sharp App works and how it can benefit you.</a>

How Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling in the Sharp App are Helping Sports Bettors

This lesson from the Sharp Academy Statsational discusses what Pythagorean Win Expectation is, how to calculate it, and how to implement it in your handicapping.The formula for Pythah Win Expectations in the NFL is(Points For*2.37/(Points For^2.37+Points Ag^2.37))*17If you have any questions on this, or any video, contact @statsational in our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">discord</a>.

How To Use Pythagorean Win Expectations

There is no more important aspect of betting than value. No matter what the risk endeavor you need to know what the probability is of the outcome you want and compare that to the price you are getting. This concept is not just for sports betting. If you watch Shark Tank you will see the sharks are trying to put a value on a company. They would invest in most companies if the value was such to make the deal worth their while.In sports every side of a bet has value potentially. If I had a 3 point shooting contest with Steph Curry you may not want to bet on me even up, but if the odds got high enough there would be a number you would want to take a shot on me winning at.

What is Value Betting in Sports?

Any time you are putting money at risk, you should be doing so with an expected value that is positive. This is how professional gamblers bet. They look for an edge and try to exploit as many of these edges as possible over time. When betting props, often I will be on the opposite side the projections are saying we should be. But that is based on what the payoff is on each side.

Can Betting Against Your Prop Projection Be Right?

Using Implied Probabilities we can get an edge on the competition in all sorts of pools. In this video, Statsational will show you how to use the Implied Odds to help with your NFL playoff Survivor pools and also fantasy pools.<a href="https://dksb.sng.link/As9kz/4n7i?_dl=https%3A%2F%2Fsportsbook.draftkings.com%2Fgateway%3Fs%3D857632325%26wpcid%3D172660%26wpcn%3DNFL2021_5FTD1000DB_L7%26wpsrc%3DThe%2520Sharp%2520App%26wpcrid%3D&pcid=172660&pcn=NFL2021_5FTD1000DB_L7&psn=The+Sharp+App" title="">Get odds from Draftkings</a><a href="http://wlwilliamhillus.adsrv.eacdn.com/C.ashx?btag=a_1166b_1740c_&affid=174&siteid=1166&adid=1740&c=" title="">Get odds from Caesars</a><a href="https://mediaserver.betmgmpartners.com/renderBanner.do?zoneId=1659599" title="">Get odds from BetMGM</a>

Sharp Academy

Bet Like A Pro

How Can A Bettor Use Line Movements To Make Sharper Bets?

John Alesia • a year ago

How Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling in the Sharp App are Helping Sports Bettors

John Alesia • a year ago

How To Use Pythagorean Win Expectations

John Alesia • a year ago

What is Value Betting in Sports?

John Alesia • a year ago

Can Betting Against Your Prop Projection Be Right?

John Alesia • 2 years ago

NFL Playoff Strategies and Tips To Win Your Pool | Scratchin and Survivn with Statsational

John Alesia • 2 years ago

Offers

Beginner Level

How to bet against the "Spread" - Beginner Level Lesson 1

John Alesia • 2 years ago

Moneyline Bet Explained - Beginner Level Lesson 2

John Alesia • 2 years ago

Bankroll Management - Beginner Level Lesson 3

John Alesia • 2 years ago

Sports Betting Tips and Strategies - Beginner Level Lesson 4

John Alesia • 2 years ago

How To Bet On Totals and Over Unders - Beginner Level Lesson 5

John Alesia • 2 years ago

How to bet Teasers - Beginner Level Lesson 6

John Alesia • 2 years ago

Intermediate Level

Using The Kelly Criterion To Determine Unit Size For Sports Bets

Kevin "Geek" Alan • 10 months ago

What is the Halo Effect and How Does it Pertain To Sports Betting?

John Alesia • a year ago

The Martingale System In Sports Betting

John Alesia • a year ago

What is The Kelly Criterion?

John Alesia • a year ago

What is Expected Value - Intermediate Level Lesson 1

John Alesia • 2 years ago

Flat vs Variable Bet Sizing - Intermediate Level Lesson 2

John Alesia • 2 years ago

Advanced Level

The Frequentist vs. Bayesian in Sports Betting

John Alesia • a year ago

How to Find The Most Profitable Props in NBA and More - Advanced Lesson 2

John Alesia • 2 years ago

Make Money Building A Simple Sports Betting Model | Linear Regression Advanced Lesson 3

John Alesia • 2 years ago

Create Your Own Lines - Advanced Level Lesson 4

John Alesia • 2 years ago

Calculating Props In Sports Betting - Poisson Distribution - Advanced Level Lesson 1

John Alesia • 2 years ago