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Super Bowl LVII Betting Preview: Expert Tips for Sports Bettors | Sharp App

Watch the Sharp App Pros Anthony P and Statsational break down their favorite bets for the Super Bowl. Props and Sides!

The Pros Weigh In On Their Favorite Super Bowl Bets

The hottest type of betting in the US today is prop betting. If you are unfamiliar with a prop bet, check out my video on prop betting in my &quot;Sharp Academy&quot; sports betting course in the Sharp App and on <a href="https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCManN64frKuqX1s2SXid9yKzkRpsAhIx" title="">YouTube</a>. Many of you under the age of 35 got your first taste of sports betting by playing season-long or daily fantasy sports. I (49 years old), started betting on sports before I knew what fantasy sports were. You found out the results of my first football fantasy league via snail mail on Thursday. Then they had a phone number you could call on Tuesday with your results. Those were the days!When I started betting, prop bets were reserved for the Super Bowl and maybe a few in some big NBA games. Now we can bet them on every major sporting event. It is a fun wrinkle that can be costly if you do it incorrectly.The main thing you need to understand when it comes to props is the juice or vig. Of course, if you are unfamiliar, there is plenty of info on this in my Sharp Academy series. The juice on a typical spread bet, like the Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 is -110. That -110 means for every $110 you bet, you win $100 if correct. <img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/1ktP1Jm14SHu1d5uo0smO3/7cbf8eb079f74cbfcad4cb2526ddaea1/viber_image_2023-02-09_21-24-03-099.jpg"/>When looking at betting props, you will see the juice varies greatly from prop to prop and sportsbook to sportsbook. For this reason, having multiple sportsbooks is essential to trying to profit from sports betting. You can shop around for the best line and save yourself a great deal of money in the long term.Let's do some quick math for you to illustrate the point. Have a look at Patrick Mahomes props for completions. I took a screenshot from our prop tool inside the Sharp App. <img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/2qSG44LjnpZGToJ8y03KPa/b484a4201b177225e90cef6e33cb71ab/viber_image_2023-02-09_21-36-45-031.jpg"/>All of the sportsbooks have this prop at 25.5. We can easily compare these to each other. You want to get the lowest amount of juice on your bet. That means if you like the under on this number you should bet it at <a href="https://dksb.sng.link/As9kz/4n7i?_dl=https%3A%2F%2Fsportsbook.draftkings.com%2Fgateway%3Fs%3D857632325%26wpcid%3D172660%26wpcn%3DNFL2021_5FTD1000DB_L7%26wpsrc%3DThe%2520Sharp%2520App%26wpcrid%3D&pcid=172660&pcn=NFL2021_5FTD1000DB_L7&psn=The+Sharp+App" title="">Draftkings </a>because they are offering the best line of +105. If you like the over, you would want to bet this at -121 with <a href="https://wlwilliamhillus.adsrv.eacdn.com/C.ashx?btag=a_6582b_2486c_&affid=174&siteid=6582&adid=2486&c=" title="">Caesars</a>. We now cut the spread of this bet from 35 cents at <a href="https://wlwilliamhillus.adsrv.eacdn.com/C.ashx?btag=a_6582b_2486c_&affid=174&siteid=6582&adid=2486&c=" title="">Caesars </a>(the difference in juice from over to under) to 16 cents. Let's assume you think the under hits about 50% of the time based on your numbers. If you bet the Under with <a href="https://wlwilliamhillus.adsrv.eacdn.com/C.ashx?btag=a_6582b_2486c_&affid=174&siteid=6582&adid=2486&c=" title="">Caesars </a>at -113, our Expected Value (<a href="https://youtu.be/LgXqZLpy_hI" title="">video on EV</a>) on a $100 bet to win $100 would be -$6.5. Our EV, if we place this bet at <a href="https://dksb.sng.link/As9kz/4n7i?_dl=https%3A%2F%2Fsportsbook.draftkings.com%2Fgateway%3Fs%3D857632325%26wpcid%3D172660%26wpcn%3DNFL2021_5FTD1000DB_L7%26wpsrc%3DThe%2520Sharp%2520App%26wpcrid%3D&pcid=172660&pcn=NFL2021_5FTD1000DB_L7&psn=The+Sharp+App" title="">Draftkings </a>at +105, would be $2.50. That is the difference between being down $650 after making 100 such bets or being up $250. OPEN UP MULTIPLE SPORTSBOOKS!!! Use the links in this article to get you right to the sites. They also offer insane signup bonuses that can start your bankroll for free.That example is not too hard to follow. What do we do when books offer the same props but with a different target number? Take, for instance, Jalen Hurts passing yardage. <img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/p1n6NEk0by0P9uxxa1iCJ/55c56532447b0c3af9eb75efcaf399c5/viber_image_2023-02-09_21-45-40-551.jpg"/>As you can see, three books have 239.5 as the number to beat, and two have 238.5. Pointsbet is offering 235.5 The juice, of course, varies from book to book. I did a <a href="https://youtu.be/ATpORKR8b00" title="">video</a> last year on how to solve this problem that you can find here. I won't rehash it. If you are interested, it is not very long. If you have any questions, please leave them in the comments or hit me up on <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a>.For props, I would imagine 95% of the public looks at the props and then decides if they like that prop to go over or under. Of course, there are some yes-no type props and ones where you pick first TD, last TD, etc. I focus on counting type props with an over/under for this article. When I look at props, the first thing I do is run my projections. You may not have your own projections, but you really don't need them. We offer something called the Top Props for pro subscribers. These props will show you where the biggest edges are for each prop in every sport. This is based on our projections.<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/3FkUw9LUAoVRdQ5uAY6CU3/0f5b23eb7f5f408d330eaff6913c0847/viber_image_2023-02-09_21-50-48-485.jpg"/>Every bet I make, I am looking for value. Once you have projections, I have two videos on props that will help you find that value. The first is on <a href="https://youtu.be/GNG_NXllmME" title="">Poisson distribution</a>. You will use Poisson when two things are true. 1. The variable must be something that is counted one at a time and 2. The probability of occurrence of an event is small, while the number of chances to achieve it is large. Poisson works well with things like TDs thrown, sacks, and receptions. There are many opportunities for these to occur (every play), but they do not happen frequently. For something like yardage, we would look to use <a href="https://youtu.be/6KAOx26hEB8" title="">Normal Distribution</a>. Again have a look at my videos on both for a deeper understanding.One other thing that is hugely important when playing multiple props in the same game is you must realize how much risk you are taking on the same point of view. I mean if you are taking Mahomes for over completions and over yardage and taking Kelce over catches and yardage, then there is a correlation in all 4 of those bets. Playing them for 1 unit size each is far too great a risk. We can be precise on the exact correlations, but we do not need to for this article. Just understand that if those are your four bets, you may want to reduce the risk on each to .25 units.<h2>Here are the Props I like for the Super Bowl</h2><table><tr><td>Player</td><td>Team</td><td>Stat</td><td>Proj</td><td>Prop</td><td>O/U</td><td>Juice</td><td>Book</td><td>Edge</td></tr><tr><td>Justin Watson</td><td>KC</td><td>Receptions</td><td>1.28</td><td>1.5</td><td>U</td><td>-120</td><td><a href="https://mediaserver.betmgmpartners.com/renderBanner.do?zoneId=1661954" title="">BetMGM</a></td><td>8.80%</td></tr><tr><td>Patrick Mahomes</td><td>KC</td><td>Rushing Attempts</td><td>3.11</td><td>4.5</td><td>U</td><td>-154</td><td><a href="http://wlfanduel.adsrv.eacdn.com/C.ashx?btag=a_23670b_2436c_&affid=15720&siteid=23670&adid=2436&c=" title="">Fanduel</a></td><td>15.40%</td></tr><tr><td>Isaih Pacheco</td><td>KC</td><td>Receptions</td><td>1.72</td><td>1.5</td><td>U</td><td>148</td><td><a href="http://wlfanduel.adsrv.eacdn.com/C.ashx?btag=a_23670b_2436c_&affid=15720&siteid=23670&adid=2436&c=" title="">Fanduel</a></td><td>8.40%</td></tr><tr><td>Miles Sanders</td><td>PHI</td><td>Receptions</td><td>1.04</td><td>1.5</td><td>U</td><td>-165</td><td><a href="https://mediaserver.betmgmpartners.com/renderBanner.do?zoneId=1661954" title="">BetMGM</a></td><td>9.80%</td></tr></table>Normally I am looking for a little more edge than some of these have, but hey, its the Super Bowl. Let's live a little!You may notice these differ from the Top Props in the app. These picks are like the NBA Top Props article, available only for Pro subscribers. The NBA props are up about 50 units on the season and over 160 units since March of last year. Getting these props will pay for your pro subscription and then some!Best of luck with the Super Bowl!

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Statsational Super Bowl Top Props

Super Bowl LVII features the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. The game will be played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/Orkhv6CF38HgbZvkcR2x5/780d487362dab4382187a35192ee8e76/images.jpeg"/>All sportsbooks agree, and the Sharp App shows the Eagles as a -1.5 favorite. The total of 50.5 can also be found universally.&nbsp;<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/2IAb0rrzfBpHgpdp3GqGxY/d0df2b82d6bb9e5884a62aec97f57ad4/0-02-01-8d661d2d205682a69b2b4b8321646b35a3a3086408cc7ecdbfa1d0ea2c53428f_ca32fcdb35ae99da.jpg"/>In the 8 Super Bowls with a line &lt;3, the favorite has gone 5-3 SU and ATS. The line has yet to be a factor.&nbsp;&nbsp;In Super Bowls with a total &gt;50, the Under has gone 9-4.&nbsp;&nbsp;We have one shot left. If you<a href="https://sharp.app/nfl/find-out-who-will-not-be-winning-the-super-bowl-this-year-statsational-super-bowl-futures-2023" title=""> read my article</a> pre-start of the playoffs, you know we had Philadelphia and Cincinnati in futures bets to win the Super Bowl. Coming into the playoffs, Philadelphia was a dog to Kansas City, but they go into this game a favorite which has increased our EV on the bet.Let's go over the essential stats that help predict Super Bowl winners.<h3>Passing TD Percentage&nbsp;</h3>Teams that use the pass to score a high percentage of their points tend to outperform in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs finished 2nd with a 69.7% passing TD percentage. The Eagles were 32nd at 39.71%. This is a product of their offense and Jalen Hurts ability to run, but this is a significant disparity.&nbsp;Edge Chiefs<h3>Rushing Attempts Per Game&nbsp;</h3>The number of Rushing Attempts per game indicates a great team when combined with a high passing TD%. It shows a team that can pass to take the lead and run the ball to hold on to it. The Eagles were the best in the league at 33.3%. The Chiefs come in 25th at 24.6%.&nbsp;Edge Eagles&nbsp;<h3>Yards Per Pass Attempt&nbsp;</h3>Passing is crucial to winning in the NFL and has been forever. The adage that great teams run the ball to win isn't always true. Both of these teams were near the top in this category. The Eagles and Chiefs are tied for second with 7.9 yards per pass attempt.&nbsp;No Edge<h3>Defensive Yards Per Pass Attempt&nbsp;</h3>Limiting the opponent in the same category is equally important if it is essential to be efficient in the passing game. The Eagles are best in the league at 5.4 YPPA, while Kansas City is pretty good at 6th with a 6.0 YPPA against.&nbsp;Slight Edge Eagles<h3>Turnover differential per game&nbsp;</h3>Turnovers can be attributed to luck many times. When you have an outstanding QB who makes the right decisions, it reduces luck. The Eagles have an edge with a 0.6 TO differential compared to 0.0 from the Chiefs.&nbsp;Edge Eagles<h3>Sacks per game&nbsp;</h3>The game is often won or lost with pass protection or lack thereof. If you can get pressure on the QB, you are on your way to a successful day. The Eagles are by far the best in the NFL at 4.1 SPG. The closest team to them is the Kansas City Chiefs at 3.3 SPG.&nbsp;Edge Eagles<h3>Scoring Margin&nbsp;</h3>It seems obvious, but teams with a high scoring margin are better. The Eagles are the top team in the league with a 9.9 SM, while Kansas City is 4th at a 7.2 SM.&nbsp;Edge Eagles&nbsp;<h2>Position by Position</h2><h3>QB&nbsp;</h3>QB is a tough one to call. Jalen Hurts may be the league MVP this season. Patrick Mahomes is already considered one of the greatest QBs of all time in his short career. Mahomes boasts the better QB Rating coming into the game at a 105.5 to 100.6 advantage. Hurts is more than just throwing the ball, however. Jalen brings the running element into the game more than Mahomes does, especially with Patrick nursing a high ankle sprain. We can not imagine he will be very mobile, which has made the Eagles a favorite in this game. Hurts has impressed the most in his ability not to make the crucial mistake. Hurts is second in the league in Interception percentage at 1.2%. Mahomes is 8th at 1.7%.&nbsp;Slight Edge Eagles<h3>RBs&nbsp;&nbsp;</h3>The Eagles got 4.7 yards per rush attempt out of the RB position this season. Miles Sanders did the heavy lifting with 259 attempts and 1279 yards. The Eagles will use Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell, as seen through the playoffs. The Chiefs have used 5 RBs this year, but coming into this game, only two are getting any significant touches. Jerrick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco lead the way. Pacheco is a hard runner and averages 4.9 yards per attempt. McKinnon is the pass-catching threat out of the backfield. He averages 9.1 yards per catch.&nbsp;Edge Chiefs<h3>WRs&nbsp;</h3>The WRs are a mess on the Chiefs' side. JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kadarius Toney will be ready to play for the Super Bowl, but coach Andy Reid needed to be more optimistic about deep threat Mecole Hardman. The Eagles will have their starters ready to go, including the dual threat of Davonte Smith and AJ Brown. The Eagles targeted their WRs 351 times for 3,196 yards compared to 300 for 2,653 for the Chiefs. The Eagles' passing game relies heavily on their top 2 WRs.&nbsp;&nbsp;Edge Eagles&nbsp;<h3>TE</h3>While the Eagles have a pretty good Tight End in Dallas Goedart, there is one clear best TE in the game: Travis Kelce of the Chiefs. Kelce saw 152 targets and caught 110 of them for 1,338 yards. That is more than twice the yards of the next tight end. He also tripled up the second best tight end for touchdowns accounting for 12 in the regular season. Goedart had half the catches for slightly more than half the yards and just three touchdowns.&nbsp;Big Edge Chiefs<h3>Offensive Line&nbsp;</h3>The Eagles finished 1st this year on the Pro Football Focus O-Line rankings. The biggest flaw with this line in 2022 was penalties. With 44 as a unit, the Eagles were tied for the most penalized line in the NFL. Lane Johnson didn't allow a sack or a hit all season long and surrendered just nine hurries across 551 pass-blocking snaps. The Chiefs finished 4th on the Pro Football Focus O-Line rankings. The biggest weakness has been Andrew Wylie. He surrendered nine sacks and 49 total pressures over the season. Creed Humphrey is the new gold standard at the center position when it comes to run blocking. He also didn't give up a sack all season and earned a 79.7 PFF pass-blocking grade.&nbsp;Slight Edge Eagles<h3>Pass Rush&nbsp;</h3>The Eagles finished tops in the league with an 11.49% sack percentage. They were second in pressure percentage at 25.5%. The Chiefs were 5th in Sack % at 8.15% and had a pressure percentage of 24.9%, good for 5th overall. Both teams are middle of the pack in blitz %. The Eagles blitz 22.1% of the time, while the Chiefs bring extra men 24.2%.&nbsp;Edge Eagles<h3>Run Defense&nbsp;</h3>Neither team is particularly dominant against the run. The Eagles give up 4.6 yards per rush, while the Chiefs are slightly better at 4.5 YPR. My projections for the game have the Eagles outrushing the Chiefs 143-110, but much of that yardage is credited to Hurts.&nbsp;No Edge<h3>Pass Coverage&nbsp;</h3>The Chiefs' top two cornerbacks rate out well on PFF pass coverage numbers. L'Jarius Sneed gets a 76.8 and is the 10th-best overall CB. Trent McDuffie has a coverage rating of 75.6 and is 21st overall. The Eagles have a couple of good CBs as well. James Bradberry has a 79.4 coverage rating and is 18th overall. Darius Slay has a 78.1 coverage rating and also ranks 18th overall.&nbsp;No Edge<h3>Picks&nbsp;</h3>The line tells you this should be a very close game. When I run through the numbers, all signs point toward a Philadelphia win. My model likes the Eagles by 1.5 but does not factor in any injury to Mahomes. He should be better than in the AFC championship game, but Mahomes still has not had ample time to rest his ankle. By the second half, we could see him hobbling around again. There is also no guarantee he can stay healthy the entire game. I would give an additional 1.5 points to Philadelphia based on this. That would put my line at Eagles -3.What Jacksonville and Cincinnati were unable to do is exactly what the Eagles will do, and that is getting pressure on Mahomes. The Eagles are the best pressure team in the NFL. With Mahomes less mobile than he usually is, this will be a key to the Eagles' success on defense. Offensively I expect Hurts to have a big game. The Chiefs are one of the worst teams in DFS to opposing QBs, giving up over three more points than those QBs average. Having to face one of the best QBs in football this season will be a test the Chiefs will need to handle better. Hurts can keep the Chiefs' pass rush in check by breaking off some big runs. Something Mahomes is not capable of currently. If the Chiefs try and bring pressure, that will open up some deep shots to Smith and Brown. I expect at least one big TD catch from either, if not both.&nbsp;&nbsp;Philadelphia -1.5I will post some prop articles next week. Be on the lookout.

Statsational Super Bowl LVII Analysis and Picks

Super Bowl LVII is around the corner and I've been in the lab all week diving into the numbers to bring you my top prop plays for the big game. Before getting into the plays themselves I wanted to give a brief overview of how I see this game playing out. Currently, the Eagles are razor-thin 1.5-point favorites with the game total set at 50.5. Both teams sport elite offenses capable of scoring fast on big plays. Chiefs' offense ranked #1 in the league averaging 417 yards per game primarily achieved via the pass. Chiefs' Offensive line ranked 10th in the league in pass protection which should help against an aggressive Eagles front 7. Both teams' secondaries are well above average but neither has anything resembling a &quot;shut down&quot; defense. Defensively the Eagle's front 7 has been solid generating pressure on opposing QBs but the combination of the Chiefs' elite offensive line alongside Mahomes' ankle healing up should give him enough mobility to escape that pass rush and extend plays and drives. All of this should lead to a high-scoring affair where neither team gets a chance to let their foot off the gas. With that as the backdrop let's get into these props! All of these markets are currently available on Draftkings sportsbook. Using the Sharp App Player Props Tool we will also identify the best book to bet these prop plays on. Jalen Hurts over 49.5 Rushing Yards -110 (Fanduel) - 3 Star Play.Secondary - Hurts over 10.5 Carries +105 (BetMGM) 2 Star Play This prop is set at 50.5 on all of the other books so using Fanduel is preferable but I'd go to 50.5 if necessary. My model has Hurts projected to rush for 67 yards in this one and I wouldn't be shocked if he exceeded that. Hurts has averaged 9.6 rushing attempts per game this year. Most of those games were Eagles blowout wins where they took their foot off the gas a bit in the 2nd half. This game should be close and high scoring. The secondary play - over 10.5 carries, is interesting because there is a scenario where the Eagles get the football with a lead late in the 4th Quarter needing to run out the clock. If Hurts kneels to kill the clock for a couple of plays at the end of the game, those will count as carries. Potential for a backdoor cover there. Regardless Hurts has averaged over 9 carries per game on the season so hitting 10.5 in a clear high-scoring affair shouldn't be too difficult. Justin Watson under 1.5 receptions -120 (BetMGM) 2 Star PlayLooking at the <a href="sharp.link" title="">SHARP App Props Comparison Tool</a>, Caesars has this underpriced at -163 with the consensus sitting at -150. We are getting a bargain at BetMGM -120 but the DraftKings -130 number is fine to hit as well if necessary. Watson has only 2 games this season with 2 receptions. The rest have been 1's or 0's. Teams tend to lean on their studs in the Playoffs. I considered the yardage under here as well but Watson's downfield role means that even one reception has a decent chance to go for over 17 yards. I'll stick with the receptions under where Watson has only surpassed 1.5 in 12% of games this season. Devonta Smith Over 61.5 Yards -120 (Fanduel) 3 Star PlayMy model projects Smith for over 70 receiving yards in this game. Smith had seen 10, 8, 13, and 12 targets over the past 4 games with the exception being the blowout vs the 49ers. His volume has been massive over the past month and I would expect more of the same. Travis Kelce Over 75.5 Receiving Yards -125 (PointsBet) 2 Star Play Kelce to score a TD -113 (Caesars) 1.5 Star PlayEagles have an elite secondary allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. That should push extra targets over to the TE position. In addition, teams tend to lean heavily on their studs in big games. It all points to a monster game from Kelce. Miles Sanders Total Carries Under 13.5 -120 (DraftKings) 1 Star PlayOver the past 8 games Sanders has surpassed 13.5 carries 3 times. He gets there 40% of the time. There is slight value in the under as our model is projecting 11.3 carries.

Super Bowl LVII

Super Bowl LVII is around the corner and I've been in the lab all week diving into the numbers to bring you my top prop plays for the big game. 

Geek's Super Bowl LVII Top Props Bets To Target

Sunday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) and Philadelphia Eagles (14-3). Oddsmakers peg the Eagles as the slight favorite with an implied win probablity of 52%, leaving the Chiefs with a 48% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Eagles -1.0 with a Game Total of 51.0.Kansas City's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #1 in the league with 417 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #1-best in football with 327 yards per game. Perhaps because the defense has to take their pass game so seriously, the Chiefs have also managed to rush for 4.61 yards per carry, which puts them in the top 10. It's no wonder they've done so well through the air when their offensive line ranks #10 in the league in pass protection. It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 9.3% of the time against the Chiefs in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for Kansas City's offense to succeed through the air. In terms of their defense, the Chiefs have ranked #20 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 239 yards per game through the air against them (#26 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #13 with 4.46 yards per carry. Kansas City has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to a 69.4% completion rate (#10-lowest). Kansas City has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up a 91.2% completion rate (#1-highest).Philadelphia's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #7 in football at 4.77 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. To that point, Philadelphia's line ranks #4-best in the league in run blocking. Given their ground game success, this has opened up opportunities through the air too; Philadelphia's 7.66 yards per target puts them #5 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Eagles check in at #10 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 206 yards per game against Philadelphia this year (#9 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #20 against them with 4.67 yards per ground attempt. This Eagles defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 61.8% of their passes (#3-lowest in the league). A strong argument could be made that their worst position group is their safeties, who rank just #31 in the league in coverage.<h2>Kansas City Chiefs Insights</h2><ul><li>The Sharp Model projects Isiah Pacheco to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (51.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.9% in games he has played).</li><li>Marquez Valdes-Scantling has compiled far fewer air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (81.0 per game).</li><li>The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.65 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the league.</li></ul><h2>Philadelphia Eagles Insights</h2><ul><li>The Sharp Model projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.</li><li>The Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackles grade out as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to pass rush.</li><li>The Philadelphia Eagles have used play action on 33.8% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 19 games (+7.65 Units / 11% ROI)</li><li>The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)</li><li>DeVonta Smith has hit the Receptions Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 59% ROI)</li></ul>

kc-vs-phi-february-12-2023-45c77

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Preview - February 12th, 2023

Mark Drumheller provides an early preview for Super Bowl LVII! <ul><li>Download the Share App: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbFdXdXZqWmVhX3hIXzBUUThuejJMeWFPdmZ5UXxBQ3Jtc0trbzVKLUZnRWlaVDRqdEJlZTM3SEZqSFh1V01PQVdnOTFhMVlFN2NNal9Kb3dSMDlObmRiZGJUV2xjZ1JodlVvOGxWbVludDFIN1p3WTZtUWZKYUhYYzBrVFZBSmpGQzhuZGJUYnhCb3V5dXRLVUxQZw&q=https%3A%2F%2Fsharp.link%2Fdownload&v=8njtEjm-_3c" title="">https://sharp.link/download</a></li><li>Join our FREE Discord: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqbnNVczNBM3hiSkxGa2tLRno2VnNqaTdVTHhLZ3xBQ3Jtc0ttU3JjOS1PM2tXWFV6ZDVVNllPQm9QZlNwNGNHdjRiVUtTalhMQ1JsOTYyRV84eFFObVp6RjJQUG5laWhTZG9wZ3dBZ240UFNoN3Zxekhfb3I0c0tHLVU1TDBUSHZWVFZ5dEFVT1BvOGZBSnhKT2Y4OA&q=https%3A%2F%2Fdiscord.gg%2FVKgkYWch2a&v=8njtEjm-_3c" title="">https://discord.gg/VKgkYWch2a</a></li></ul>

Super Bowl LVII Early Preview: Expert Tips for Sports Bettors

<h4>Each week, Statsational will go over his NFL Power Rankings to bring you up to speed on the numbers. Are your eyes deceiving you, or are the numbers wrong? Let us know in the Discord chat. </h4>The ratings are based on each team vs. the average team in the league. You can use the rating differential of two teams and add the Home Field Advantage to get an idea of where the model likes the spread for that game. I would use this as a guide, not your final say on a game. We have a lot of models and tools for you to help with your handicapping, and this is one of them.<table><tr><td>Key</td></tr><tr><td>Power Rating - The higher the number, the better the team ranks. The differential in 2 teams can be compared to a pt spread on a neutral site.</td></tr><tr><td>SOS - Strength Of Schedule</td></tr><tr><td>Defense Rating - How many expected points are to be given up against an average team</td></tr><tr><td>Offense Rating - How many points are expected to be scored against an average team</td></tr></table>I previously wrote an article on futures bets here at the Sharp App before the playoffs started. Philadelphia was one of our bets, while Kansas City wasn't. To make a profit, we need Philadelphia to win. I'll be analyzing key stats in this game to determine who I think is the best bet in this game now that we have the final teams left. We will also do some prop betting analysis. Look out for my articles this week.<h3>After Championship GamesThe current HFA is 2.24. I expect it to be 1.75 by year's end.</h3><table><tr><td>Rank</td><td>Teams</td><td>Power Rating</td><td>SOS</td><td>Defense Rating</td><td>Offense Rating</td><td>W</td><td>L</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Philadelphia</td><td>32.48</td><td>24.75</td><td>18.21</td><td>25.39</td><td>16</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Buffalo</td><td>31.79</td><td>25.74</td><td>18.52</td><td>24.96</td><td>14</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Kansas City</td><td>31.20</td><td>25.08</td><td>20.48</td><td>26.25</td><td>16</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>San Francisco</td><td>30.97</td><td>24.89</td><td>17.31</td><td>22.91</td><td>15</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Cincinnati</td><td>29.98</td><td>26.64</td><td>20.00</td><td>24.28</td><td>14</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Dallas</td><td>29.61</td><td>25.30</td><td>19.73</td><td>23.77</td><td>13</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Baltimore</td><td>27.58</td><td>26.28</td><td>18.91</td><td>20.85</td><td>10</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Miami</td><td>26.87</td><td>26.51</td><td>21.69</td><td>22.93</td><td>9</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Jacksonville</td><td>26.62</td><td>24.98</td><td>21.31</td><td>22.36</td><td>10</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Cleveland</td><td>25.97</td><td>25.99</td><td>21.60</td><td>22.00</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Washington</td><td>25.90</td><td>25.60</td><td>18.27</td><td>18.75</td><td>8</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Detroit</td><td>25.84</td><td>25.59</td><td>23.77</td><td>24.19</td><td>9</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>New England</td><td>25.83</td><td>25.84</td><td>19.32</td><td>19.58</td><td>8</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>NY Jets</td><td>25.73</td><td>26.33</td><td>17.67</td><td>17.83</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>New Orleans</td><td>25.50</td><td>25.30</td><td>19.43</td><td>19.36</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>LA Chargers</td><td>25.50</td><td>24.84</td><td>21.80</td><td>21.67</td><td>10</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>Green Bay</td><td>25.26</td><td>25.37</td><td>20.45</td><td>20.14</td><td>8</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>Pittsburgh</td><td>25.14</td><td>26.52</td><td>19.06</td><td>18.62</td><td>9</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>Tampa Bay</td><td>24.82</td><td>25.94</td><td>20.37</td><td>19.69</td><td>8</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>Seattle</td><td>24.49</td><td>25.41</td><td>23.37</td><td>22.36</td><td>9</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>NY Giants</td><td>24.39</td><td>25.79</td><td>21.38</td><td>20.20</td><td>10</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>LasVegas</td><td>23.99</td><td>24.96</td><td>23.57</td><td>21.98</td><td>6</td><td>11</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>Minnesota</td><td>23.82</td><td>25.41</td><td>24.19</td><td>22.65</td><td>13</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>Denver</td><td>23.22</td><td>25.03</td><td>19.87</td><td>17.52</td><td>5</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>Atlanta</td><td>22.75</td><td>25.10</td><td>22.89</td><td>20.21</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td>Carolina</td><td>22.72</td><td>25.22</td><td>21.86</td><td>19.15</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>27</td><td>Tennessee</td><td>22.22</td><td>25.55</td><td>20.59</td><td>17.24</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>28</td><td>Arizona</td><td>21.99</td><td>25.76</td><td>23.12</td><td>19.53</td><td>4</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>29</td><td>LA Rams</td><td>21.90</td><td>26.04</td><td>20.61</td><td>17.08</td><td>5</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>Indianapolis</td><td>20.43</td><td>25.04</td><td>22.53</td><td>17.39</td><td>4</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>31</td><td>Chicago</td><td>19.95</td><td>26.15</td><td>23.79</td><td>18.32</td><td>3</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>32</td><td>Houston</td><td>18.30</td><td>25.19</td><td>23.63</td><td>16.35</td><td>3</td><td>13</td></tr></table>Join your fellow sports enthusiasts in our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq " title="">Discord </a>chat

Statsational Super Bowl Power Rankings

It was an O-fer night as all 3 plays were missed, the Bruins lost, the Sabres lost a tight one in a shootout, while the Trailblazers just never showed up versus the Raptors.Val&rsquo;s Big Payday Parlay, pays +784Straight up Overall Record for the Big Payday Plays 512-715, -29.64 unitsCarolina Hurricanes -126The Canes host the Bruins tonight; the Bruins will be on a B2B and third game in four nights and for the first time this season have lost two games in a row. These are the top two teams in the Eastern Conference and we should be in for a competitive game. Listen there isn&rsquo;t anything bad to say about either of these teams as neither has any glaring deficiencies. It is possible that the Bruins could be entering a small phase of regression at it is almost impossible to continue winning at their current clip. They&rsquo;ve also lost their last five meetings in Carolina, so I will back the Canes here versus a tired Bruins team. Washington Capitals +125The Leafs host the Capitals tonight in what will be their second game without A. Matthews in the lineup and I don&rsquo;t envision this game going any better than the first one when they got throttled by the Senators 6-2. Even though hockey is a team game missing a piece as big as Matthews will have an effect on a team. The Caps haven&rsquo;t been playing great of late, however, many of their losses have been tight battles that could have gone either way. I think this is an opportunity for them to get a win on the road as an underdog versus a team that is missing a major piece. SF 49ers/Philadelphia Eagles U45 -106We have the NFC Championship game between the 49ers and Eagles today, and what a matchup it will be. We have two of the best defenses in the league squaring off, the #1 ranked 49ers versus the #4 ranked Eagles. The offenses too shabby either with the Eagles at #3 and 49ers at #8, however, this is a chance to go to Superbowl so I&rsquo;m not sure the coaches will take chances in critical situations in the game. 49ers Coach K. Shanahan has always shown a propensity to be conservative around midfield, choosing to punt the ball and playing field position rather than going for it on fourth down. I expect this to be a close game and can see the final score in the 20-17 range.Next, join your fellow sports enthusiasts in our chat.Join <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @mtlkid any questions you have on other games

Val’s Big Payday Parlay January 29th 2023

<h4>I will post the Top Prop plays for the day according to my model and its projections. This may differ from the Top Props tool in the app. These are plays I think are worthwhile bets.</h4>I have been scaling back on the NFL Props as the market is exceptionally tight. The NBA is similar. We have played fewer games daily than last season, but the results speak for themselves. In the NBA, we are up over 155.3 units since we began and 43 units this season. If you have not been following them, then you are missing out!!!<table><tr><td>Player</td><td>Team</td><td>Stat</td><td>Proj</td><td>Prop</td><td>O/U</td><td>Juice</td><td>Book</td><td>Edge</td></tr><tr><td>Kadarius Toney</td><td>KC</td><td>Receptions</td><td>2.87</td><td>3.5</td><td>U</td><td>-125</td><td>Draftkings</td><td>12.10%</td></tr></table>

Top Props - NFL January 29, 2022

<h4>Each week, Statsational will go over his NFL Power Rankings to bring you up to speed on the numbers. Are your eyes deceiving you, or are the numbers wrong? Let us know in the Discord chat. </h4>The ratings are based on each team vs. the average team in the league. You can use the rating differential of two teams and add the Home Field Advantage to get an idea of where the model likes the spread for that game. I would use this as a guide, not your final say on a game. We have a lot of models and tools for you to help with your handicapping, and this is one of them.<table><tr><td>Key</td></tr><tr><td>Power Rating - The higher the number, the better the team ranks. The differential in 2 teams can be compared to a pt spread on a neutral site.</td></tr><tr><td>SOS - Strength Of Schedule</td></tr><tr><td>Defense Rating - How many expected points are to be given up against an average team</td></tr><tr><td>Offense Rating - How many points are expected to be scored against an average team</td></tr></table><h3>After Divisional RoundThe current HFA is 2.12 I expect it to be 1.75 by year's end.</h3><table><tr><td>Rank</td><td>Teams</td><td>Power Rating</td><td>SOS</td><td>Defense Rating</td><td>Offense Rating</td><td>Off Rushing</td><td>Off Passing</td><td>Def Rushing</td><td>W</td><td>L</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Buffalo</td><td>31.82</td><td>25.84</td><td>18.52</td><td>24.98</td><td>18.28</td><td>18.97</td><td>11.35</td><td>14</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Philadelphia</td><td>31.73</td><td>24.45</td><td>18.97</td><td>25.33</td><td>25.16</td><td>18.62</td><td>4.94</td><td>15</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>San Francisco</td><td>31.59</td><td>24.55</td><td>17.28</td><td>23.56</td><td>12.74</td><td>11.91</td><td>38.25</td><td>15</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Kansas City</td><td>31.32</td><td>24.91</td><td>20.67</td><td>26.49</td><td>-1.99</td><td>69.45</td><td>1.39</td><td>15</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Cincinnati</td><td>29.99</td><td>26.43</td><td>20.21</td><td>24.56</td><td>-14.20</td><td>44.65</td><td>21.36</td><td>14</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Dallas</td><td>29.64</td><td>25.35</td><td>19.68</td><td>23.76</td><td>7.57</td><td>5.92</td><td>-2.71</td><td>13</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Baltimore</td><td>27.64</td><td>26.32</td><td>18.89</td><td>20.89</td><td>42.11</td><td>-33.58</td><td>28.60</td><td>10</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Miami</td><td>26.96</td><td>26.61</td><td>21.66</td><td>22.98</td><td>-24.54</td><td>47.12</td><td>17.72</td><td>9</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Jacksonville</td><td>26.61</td><td>25.02</td><td>21.30</td><td>22.34</td><td>1.66</td><td>15.38</td><td>3.89</td><td>10</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Cleveland</td><td>26.01</td><td>26.04</td><td>21.60</td><td>22.04</td><td>30.16</td><td>-2.01</td><td>-18.94</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Washington</td><td>25.92</td><td>25.62</td><td>18.23</td><td>18.72</td><td>-2.25</td><td>-13.83</td><td>20.94</td><td>8</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>New England</td><td>25.85</td><td>25.92</td><td>19.34</td><td>19.61</td><td>-12.91</td><td>-12.30</td><td>15.08</td><td>8</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>Detroit</td><td>25.82</td><td>25.64</td><td>23.79</td><td>24.18</td><td>0.46</td><td>35.11</td><td>-19.32</td><td>9</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>NY Jets</td><td>25.76</td><td>26.40</td><td>17.68</td><td>17.87</td><td>-19.07</td><td>-3.22</td><td>0.80</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>LA Chargers</td><td>25.59</td><td>24.94</td><td>21.75</td><td>21.70</td><td>-29.15</td><td>41.91</td><td>-24.99</td><td>10</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>New Orleans</td><td>25.57</td><td>25.35</td><td>19.39</td><td>19.38</td><td>-2.14</td><td>-5.88</td><td>-7.27</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>Green Bay</td><td>25.24</td><td>25.42</td><td>20.47</td><td>20.13</td><td>0.18</td><td>-10.34</td><td>-16.32</td><td>8</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>Pittsburgh</td><td>25.16</td><td>26.54</td><td>19.05</td><td>18.63</td><td>6.17</td><td>-29.98</td><td>15.97</td><td>9</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>Tampa Bay</td><td>24.91</td><td>26.00</td><td>20.33</td><td>19.74</td><td>-44.94</td><td>57.36</td><td>7.16</td><td>8</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>Seattle</td><td>24.69</td><td>25.56</td><td>23.24</td><td>22.43</td><td>2.09</td><td>11.17</td><td>-33.53</td><td>9</td><td>9</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>NY Giants</td><td>24.32</td><td>25.79</td><td>21.38</td><td>20.14</td><td>20.95</td><td>-30.13</td><td>-17.08</td><td>10</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>LasVegas</td><td>24.07</td><td>25.05</td><td>23.52</td><td>22.02</td><td>2.29</td><td>13.61</td><td>-11.07</td><td>6</td><td>11</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>Minnesota</td><td>23.80</td><td>25.44</td><td>24.21</td><td>22.65</td><td>-34.72</td><td>53.24</td><td>5.62</td><td>13</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>Denver</td><td>23.31</td><td>25.13</td><td>19.82</td><td>17.55</td><td>-5.95</td><td>-12.90</td><td>5.33</td><td>5</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>Atlanta</td><td>22.84</td><td>25.18</td><td>22.85</td><td>20.26</td><td>38.22</td><td>-54.33</td><td>-10.89</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td>Carolina</td><td>22.81</td><td>25.28</td><td>21.82</td><td>19.20</td><td>8.17</td><td>-40.63</td><td>0.01</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>27</td><td>Tennessee</td><td>22.23</td><td>25.58</td><td>20.58</td><td>17.23</td><td>-1.65</td><td>-41.38</td><td>40.62</td><td>7</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>28</td><td>Arizona</td><td>22.11</td><td>25.86</td><td>23.02</td><td>19.55</td><td>-9.46</td><td>-5.59</td><td>-1.36</td><td>4</td><td>13</td></tr><tr><td>29</td><td>LA Rams</td><td>22.04</td><td>26.14</td><td>20.52</td><td>17.14</td><td>-23.38</td><td>-33.39</td><td>5.57</td><td>5</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>Indianapolis</td><td>20.42</td><td>25.07</td><td>22.53</td><td>17.38</td><td>-10.89</td><td>-21.51</td><td>-6.52</td><td>4</td><td>12</td></tr><tr><td>31</td><td>Chicago</td><td>20.00</td><td>26.24</td><td>23.76</td><td>18.33</td><td>51.43</td><td>-88.21</td><td>-35.16</td><td>3</td><td>14</td></tr><tr><td>32</td><td>Houston</td><td>18.28</td><td>25.22</td><td>23.63</td><td>16.34</td><td>-31.81</td><td>-24.93</td><td>-44.39</td><td>3</td><td>13</td></tr></table>Join your fellow sports enthusiasts in our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq " title="">Discord </a>chat

Statsational NFL Championship Games Power Rankings

<h4>I will post the Top Prop plays for the day according to my model and its projections. This may differ from the Top Props tool in the app. These are plays I think are worthwhile bets.</h4>I have been scaling back on the NFL Props as the market is exceptionally tight. The NBA is similar. We have played fewer games daily than last season, but the results speak for themselves. In the NBA, we are up over 155.3 units since we began and 43 units this season. If you have not been following them, then you are missing out!!!This would normally not be a play for me, but its the closest one I would take on the NFL Board. I really only like this at BetMGM with the plus money. <table><tr><td>Player</td><td>Team</td><td>Stat</td><td>Proj</td><td>Prop</td><td>O/U</td><td>Juice</td><td>Book</td><td>Edge</td></tr><tr><td>Travis Etienne</td><td>JAX</td><td>Receptions</td><td>2.49</td><td>2.5</td><td>U</td><td>115</td><td>BetMGM</td><td>8.10%</td></tr></table>Good Luck!

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