I will be posting my model every day of the tournament. The greater the difference between my line and the line posted by the books, the better the play. I will highlight the plays I like. I usually play it if it is 1.5 points off or more.<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/7zt4sgZj0XB1MdHSjQ4PIL/00043830c7435bcd08982d6fbe72676e/Capture.JPG"/>I would love to hear who you are betting in our <a href="https://discord.gg/sharp-app-sports-betting-750497266552537217" title="">Discord</a> .Do Not Miss Out On Our Free Bracket Challenge. Click <a href="https://sharp.app/ncaab/march-madness-bracket" title="">HERE</a> to Join!

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Game Theory

NCAA MARCH MADNESS FINALS MODEL LINES

I will be posting my model every day of the tournament. The greater the difference between my line and the line posted by the books, the better the play. I will highlight the plays I like. I usually play it if it is 1.5 points off or more.<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/1k3arP1kfiQL3EMZ115z6u/594910bcbf2b830a4771c2f850f4fefd/image__15_.png"/>I would love to hear who you are betting in our <a href="https://discord.gg/sharp-app-sports-betting-750497266552537217" title="">Discord</a> .Do Not Miss Out On Our Free Bracket Challenge. Click <a href="https://sharp.app/ncaab/march-madness-bracket" title="">HERE</a> to Join!

NCAA MARCH MADNESS FINAL 4 MODEL LINES

We hit a nice +635 parlay last night!Val&rsquo;s Big Payday Parlay, pays +640NY Islanders -.5 -130 (regulation)The Islanders are in Columbus to face the Blue Jackets, like I mentioned about the Sharks when I choose the Canucks as part of the parlay yesterday, the same can be said about the Jackets, the season cannot end fast enough. They&rsquo;ve lost 7 of their last 10 games and have been blown out in almost all of them. From a defensive standpoint the Jackets have given up 4 or more goals in 9 straight games. Now they face the Islanders that have 3 straight and are in the thick of a playoff race. The Islanders cannot afford and will not take the Jackets lightly and expect them to take of business in regulation. New Jersey Devils -.5 -116 (regulation)The Sabres host the Devils tonight in Buffalo; the Sabres could not have picked a worst time of the season to be playing their worst hockey. They&rsquo;ve lost 8 of their last 10 games which has pretty much ended any chance of making the playoffs. They would need to turn things around on a dime and need the teams ahead of them to go on losing streak, which is highly unlikely. The Devils haven&rsquo;t been great of late either losing 4 of their last 5 but have played much better competition. The Devils are still a monster team on the road and I like them to take care on the Sabres in regulation. Xavier Musketeers +4.5 -106The Xavier Musketeers face the Texas Longhorns in the Sweet 16 tonight; if last night&rsquo;s games were any indication of what tonight may provide us we should be in for some great games. Both these teams are senior laden squads and it isn&rsquo;t surprising that they&rsquo;ve reached this point of the tournament. The underdog not only cashed in 3 of the 4 games last night, but they won all 3 games straight up. I think these are two very evenly matched teams and getting 4.5 points is a great option. I will back the Musketeers in a game they can easily win straight up.Join the Sharp App and use code val20 for a discounthttps://sharp.appJoin <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @mtlkid any questions you have on other games

Val’s Big Payday Parlay March 24th 2023

I will be posting my model every day of the tournament. The greater the difference between my line and the line posted by the books, the better the play. I will highlight the plays I like. I usually play it if it is 1.5 points off or more.<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/5ajSOO19QUvu6QTaCrtoln/9e56c2d2db15235a48411907c3253a4a/s16.JPG"/>I would love to hear who you are betting in our <a href="https://discord.gg/sharp-app-sports-betting-750497266552537217" title="">Discord</a> .Do Not Miss Out On Our Free Bracket Challenge. Click <a href="https://sharp.app/ncaab/march-madness-bracket" title="">HERE</a> to Join!

NCAA MARCH MADNESS SWEET 16 MODEL LINES

Val&rsquo;s Big Payday Parlay, pays +515Marquette Golden Eagles -150The Golden Eagles face the Spartans in the Round of 32 today. The Golden Eagles were never really tested by the Vermont Catamounts on Friday, while the Spartans were tested by the USC Trojans in the first half but then ran away with the game in the second half. I think the Big 10 Conference was a bit of a fraud this season as the usual big names schools (Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois) were not their dominant selves and it inflated the records of schools like Purdue, Indiana &amp; Michigan St. We&rsquo;ve seen what&rsquo;s happened to the Big 10 teams so far; Purdue suffering possibly the biggest upset in tournament history, Iowa &amp; Illinois out first round. Then Maryland, Northwestern &amp; Penn St were all eliminated yesterday. I see Michigan St getting exposed today and suffering the same fate as their other Big 10 conference brothers. New York Rangers -.5 -136 (Regulation)The Rangers host the Predators; both teams will be on a B2B and it looks like we will probably have a matchup of backup goalies. The Rangers look to be jelling after acquiring players at the trade deadline as they&rsquo;ve now won 5 of their last 6 games. The Predators were sellers at the deadline and even though they&rsquo;re only 5 points out of a playoff spot, they aren&rsquo;t really in contention to make the playoffs. The Devils who are the team ahead of the Rangers for home ice in the first round have now lost 3 straight and are struggling, the Rangers only sit 5 points behind them and could steal home ice away from them if things continue going this way. I like the Rangers here in regulation.Vancouver Canucks/Anaheim Ducks O6.5 -128The Canucks are in Anaheim to face the Ducks tonight; the Canucks will be on a B2B and have now won 6 of their last 7 games. The Ducks won a wild game 7-4 over the Blue Jackets on Friday night which was a game part on our parlay. I&rsquo;ll repeat what I mentioned in Friday&rsquo;s write up, this is a game between 2 teams out of the playoff race and looking to stay healthy going into the off season, so do not expect a lot of physicality. Expect an open game with a lot of scoring opportunities, the Canucks look to be starting C. Delia being on a B2B and his GAA is at 3.50 while the Ducks look to start J. Gibson who&rsquo;s GAA is 3.90.Join the Sharp App and use code val20 for a discounthttps://sharp.appJoin <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @mtlkid any questions you have on other games

Val’s Big Payday Parlay March 19th 2023

I will be posting my model every day of the tournament. The greater the difference between my line and the line posted by the books, the better the play. I will highlight the plays I like. I usually play it if it is 1.5 points off or more.<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/4N37Mhj2sNPEfv5869LL8M/5f35ba4a059e76b521cff0d73ed353a5/image__13_.png"/>I would love to hear who you are betting in our <a href="https://discord.gg/sharp-app-sports-betting-750497266552537217" title="">Discord</a> .Do Not Miss Out On Our Free Bracket Challenge. Click <a href="https://sharp.app/ncaab/march-madness-bracket" title="">HERE</a> to Join!

NCAA MARCH MADNESS ROUND 2 MODEL LINES DAY 2

Val&rsquo;s Big Payday Parlay, pays +656Buffalo Sabres -133The Sabres are in Philadelphia to face the Flyers tonight. Games are starting to become must win for the Sabres as they sit 6 points out of the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. Luckily for them they have 3 games in hand on the Islanders that currently hold that last spot. Tonight they face a Flyers team that has lost 8 of the last 10 and have looked unmotivated in most of those losses. Also the Flyers have not added a lot of your players to their lineup, and veteran players are less likely to block a shot with their body or get really physical this late in the season to avoid getting injured and possibly spend the off season having to rehab an injury. The Flyers will be going through the motions over the last 10-12 games. Expect the Sabres with more motivation to take this game. Columbus Blue Jackets/Anaheim Ducks O6.5 -121Tonight we have a game between two cellar dweller teams in the NHL with the Blue Jackets and Ducks, these two teams were out of the playoff picture about 25 games into the season. As I mentioned just above, we have two teams and players with nothing to play for except personal stats and the avoidance of an injury. So you can&rsquo;t expect this game to have a rough and tough playoff atmosphere, it will have more of an All Star game atmosphere with a bit more effort. It will also be a game between Columbus&rsquo;s 4th string goalie on the year and Anaheim&rsquo;s 3rd string goalie, so I expect a lot of goals scored tonightDrake Bulldogs +105The Drake Bulldogs and the Miami Hurricanes are the 5/12 matchup in the Midwest Region tonight. It is often said that experience matters in the tournament and if that is the case the Bulldogs should be primed to upset the Canes here. The Bulldogs have a starting roster that is older than 5 starting lineups in the NBA. The Canes had a great run last year in the tournament but that squad was led by seniors S. Waardenburg, K. McGusty &amp; C. Moore. They rely heavily now on I. Wong &amp; J. Miller. Outside of last year&rsquo;s run and the miracle run he had at George Mason several years ago, Canes coach J. Larranaga hasn&rsquo;t had great success in March. I like the Bulldogs senior laden squad to upset the Canes today. Join the Sharp App and use code val20 for a discounthttps://sharp.appJoin <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @mtlkid any questions you have on other games

Val’s Big Payday Parlay March 17th 2023

Val&rsquo;s Big Payday Parlay, pays +881Dallas Stars/Edmonton Oilers O6.5 -131The Stars are in Edmonton to face the Oilers; both teams have been trending to the over for quite a while now. The Stars have played 7 straight overs while the Oilers have played the over in 6 of their last 10 games. These 2 teams have the star power (McDavid, Draisaitl, Benn, Robertson) on offense to easily get over this number, plus history has shown us that when these two teams face off over goals are plentiful. The over has hit in 4 straight games, expect that to continue tonight. Vancouver Canucks -144The Coyotes host the Canucks tonight and surprisingly enough it can be considered a game between 2 of the hotter teams in the league. The Canucks have won 5 straight while the Yotes have won 4 of their last 5. The return of T. Demko has really been a stabilizing point for the Canucks in goal; he can make up for some of the defensive lapses or deficiencies they encounter on a nightly basis. The Yotes have had success as they&rsquo;ve been able to outscore teams of late; however, Demko hasn&rsquo;t allowed more than 2 goals against in 5 straight games. I like the Canucks to continue their winning streak. College of Charleston +195The Cougars of Charleston face the San Diego Aztecs in the 5/12 matchup of the South Region bracket this afternoon. We all know the history of the 5/12 matchup throughout the years where more often than not the #5 seed goes home early. The Aztecs are a good team, but they are prone to playing clunkers every so often. They&rsquo;ve been able to pull off victories when scoring in the low 60&rsquo;s and even pulled out a victory versus Fresno St when they only scored 45 points. I understand that Charleston plays in a weaker conference but man this team can score and they score in bunches, if SD St goes through a 6-7 minute stretch today where they don&rsquo;t score, they could be prime to be upset today. Join the Sharp App and use code val20 for a discounthttps://sharp.appJoin <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @mtlkid any questions you have on other games

Val’s Big Payday Parlay March 16th 2023

I will be posting my model every day of the tournament. The greater the difference between my line and the line posted by the books, the better the play. I will highlight the plays I like. I usually play it if it is 1.5 points off or more.<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/1Ih0RcrY1M2aLNuCbBeLA2/df127e8220c5a47c44bf3d9b0e283b65/betsrd1.JPG"/>I would love to hear who you are betting in our <a href="https://discord.gg/sharp-app-sports-betting-750497266552537217" title="">Discord</a> .Do Not Miss Out On Our Free Bracket Challenge. Click <a href="https://sharp.app/ncaab/march-madness-bracket" title="">HERE</a> to Join!

NCAA MARCH MADNESS ROUND 1 MODEL LINES

We use the SHARP APP AI Models alongside the Statsational's Game Theory and Team Elimination breakdowns to create the ultimate March Madness 2023 Bracket!

Combining Game Theory And AI Models To Create The Ultimate March Madness 2023 Bracket

Every year there is that cinderella team that happens to make it to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8, and everyone is surprised about it. In the previous two years, a 15 seed made it to the Sweet 16 in Oral Roberts and Saint Peter's. College basketball this year has been very unpredictable, and these teams, I believe, can and will make a run in the tournament:Colgate: Colgate is no stranger to the big dance. In 2021, they lost to Arkansas in the Round of 64. In that game, they were down three at the half, took the lead with about ten minutes in the second half, and then Arkansas pulled away at the end. In 2022, Colgate was tied with Wisconsin at the half, and through a back-and-forth second half, and with about three minutes left, Wisconsin hit back-to-back threes to seal it. Playing close games in the tournament has provided the Red Raiders with experience in the dance.This season, Colgate won the Patriot League, posting a 17-1 record in conference play. Led by three seniors in Tucker Richardson, Keegan Records, and Oliver Lynch-Daniels, these Red Raiders will want to finish what they started in Hamilton, NY. In addition, they are getting valuable minutes from freshman guard Braeden Smith. The Red Raiders shoot approximately 40% from 3 and their Assist-To-Turnover Ratio is approximately 2:1. For playing in the Patriot League, they posted the 44th most efficient offense in the nation. They averaged almost 19 assists a game, the fifth most in the nation. Colgate can explode on the offensive end of the court and watch for this team to cause trouble to Texas' defense. Iona: 2 words, Rick Pitino. One of the most controversial yet, legendary coaches in college basketball. Iona seems to play a tough schedule every year, and they have proven to win in these games. In 2021 March Madness, Iona almost shocked the world by pulling off the first-round upset over Alabama. This year, Iona dominated the MAAC and walked through the conference on their way to an automatic bid into the big dance. Their offensive and defensive efficiency is posted both in the top 80. In addition, they only allow around 65 points a game which is reasonably high but averaged almost 77 points. Iona has Rick Pitino as their head coach, and he is a basketball wizard. UConn has been phenomenal this year, but there are a lot of flaws in their team, and I believe Rick Pitino will work his magic and exploit them.Other teams that I believe can pull off a first-round upset:<ul><li>UCSB over Baylor</li><li>Pitt over Iowa State</li></ul>For more premium picks, use my code &quot;<a href="https://sharp.link/jake" title="">Jake</a>&quot; for one month free of the pro subscription! Follow <a href="https://www.instagram.com/sharpapp_jake/" title="">@sharpapp_jake</a> for more picks on Instagram!

Follow @sharpapp_jake on Instagram for more picks!

Looking to bust your Bracket Pool? Here are my predicted upsets in the Round of 64

Most people approach filling out their brackets by asking themselves the question, &quot;who will win this game?&quot; for each match-up until they reach a final winner. However, this strategy may not be optimal for larger office pools with 50 or more entries. In smaller pools, it's better to stick with the favorites as indicated by the odds on a sportsbook like Draftkings or Fanduel. But in larger pools, it's important to strike a balance between picking favorites and selecting upsets based on historical data and trends.For this article, I will assume you are in a larger office pool of 50+ entries. If you are in a smaller one, you will want to be as chalky as possible. Step 1Number of EntriesFor those participating in pools that permit multiple entries, it's advisable to enter enough times to occupy 2-5% of the total entries. In my experience, playing in a pool with 100-125 entries, I typically submit 5 entries. This approach not only increases the likelihood of winning but also provides the chance to diversify the picks.Step 2Looking for ValueAfter transitioning into a daily fantasy sports professional seven years ago, I recognized the significance of player ownership. Although one cannot predict the ownership of each player in an NBA slate with certainty, experience allows for reasonable estimation. The importance of this information lies in its ability to reveal whether a player is overvalued, undervalued, or valued appropriately by the market. This same concept can be applied to filling out a bracket with greater ease.The following is the process for using models to predict a team's likelihood of reaching the final four or winning the championship. There are multiple reliable models available, such as <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-march-madness-predictions/" title="">538</a>, <a href="https://kenpom.com/blog/" title="">Kenpom</a>, or futures lines from a sportsbook like Draftkings or Fanduel. When utilizing futures odds, one must account for the &quot;juice,&quot; which is not an exact science for futures. This article will use the numbers from 538 as an example.Here is the list of each team with their 538 Probability vs. <a href="https://fantasy.espn.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2023/en/whopickedwhom" title="">ESPN percentage</a> to win their region (get to the final 4)<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/5GpoqD5qOhX4wRVX4r1Uyc/c9f11e864815912798b4ed10ecad7e2c/east2023f4.JPG"/><img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/6VAkY1u0jqZblt39Qic4MM/d233166a941bc4ac96643e1dde4ba0ef/mw2023f4.JPG"/><img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/1l1BbcqOQWCBojBh1eBYR5/1ad65277adb8bf3e0bb0c0b727f78b45/south2023f4.JPG"/><img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/2pfVfcnLisMQKjzO6nf6fF/f4bd68643ad038d015a282476ea5e751/west2023f4.JPG"/>Some of the best leverage plays to make the final 4 are Kentucky, Michigan St, Providence, and Tennesee in the East. If you read my article on <a href="https://sharp.app/ncaab/eliminating-pretenders-2023-ncaa-march-madness-tournament" title="">eliminating contenders</a> you know we eliminated the top 4 seeds in the East. This could be a bracket you want to take a longshot. The leverage is there as well, at least using the 538 model.In the Midwest Houston is being picked at a rate pretty close to what the 538 model thinks their probability is to make the final 4. At +160, the market is not as high on Houston as the model. The team that is being overvalued is Texas, according to 538. You can go with just about any other team and get some leverage on the field. Taking a chalk Houston is not terrible if you are differentiated elsewhere.In the South, the model loves Creighton, which is skewing the data a bit. Baylor, SDSU, and Virginia aren't terrible, but the best bang for the buck may be Arizona, even though the model has them on the market right now. If you trust 538, Creighton would be a unique play for sure. You will likely win the pool, or at least cash, if they make the Final 4 and you have it correct. In my pool, you are multiplying six by the points for that round. The model puts it at +810 while the market is paying +750. The more I look at it, they are going to be well worth the gamble. You are 8 or 9 to 1 to get them to the Final 4, and you will likely win a 100-entry pool.In the West Gonzaga and UCONN headline the best leverage plays. Kansas is way overvalued. Being the defending Champion and being Kansas, that isn't a shock. In the article I posted about eliminating contenders, UCONN would now be eliminated based on Rule #1. They are currently top 10 in AP and were not ranked pre-season. When I wrote the article, the new AP had not been released.Here is the list of the top teams with their 538 Probability vs. ESPN percentage to win the National Championship<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/1dcLKyozKYzDFnwxo4ABdh/f37fd2465502b1647349f0e1039f633f/towin2023.JPG"/>There are many ways to use this information. Your league rules will determine a lot of it. In my pool, we multiply seeds by the pts for the rd. That gives some reward for picking upsets. If your pool is strictly giving points for wins, then you may want to be a little more chalky with your picks. Ultimately your best chance of winning a large pool is to strategically differentiate yourself with high probability picks that are being underplayed.If you live in an area where the entire pool will take the home team then you are in the best possible pool to be in. You are at a huge advantage if you are in Tuscaloosa, AL and everyone will be taking Alabama. Then you just go with Houston and hope for the best. But in an average pool, you should use the ESPN data.Step 3Work BackwardI like to figure out my champion and final 4 before filling out my bracket. If I have a chalky Final 4 then I better be taking some more risks early in the tournament. In a &quot;seed bonus&quot; type pool, you will want to take a lot of higher seeds to advance deep.Conversely, if I take Creighton and Kentucky in the Final 4, one of them will have to advance to the Championship Game. If you go this route you will want to be pretty chalky in the earlier rounds of the bracket. You are taking all of your risk later. Remember, you are really only competing with the others who have Creighton Or Kentucky. That will be a much smaller percentage of your pool, so being chalky may be good enough to get you out in front of them.If you have a 2 or 3 seed losing in the 2nd round then take them to lose the first game in a pool that rewards upset picks. I have picked up a cheap 15 points quite a few times by fading 2 seeds that I did not think would go far in the tournament. My risk is 2 points to the field to win 15, but I will do this more when I have a chalky final 4. This is why you must work backward.For brackets that are taking one or more high seeds in the Final 4 then you should advance all favorites(vegas favorites) as far as they will go. If you want a Creighton and Kentucky Final 4 then there is no need to choose one to win it all. If one makes the Final 4, as I said earlier, you are likely to win the pool. To make sure you are getting the highest probability of points to go with it, you will want to take Houston to win the whole thing.There are so many ways to play the brackets. What I want to get across is using game theory is more important than knowing college basketball. I have a tremendous cash rate in the pool I have been running for over 20 years. I play 5 entries each year, we have about 125 entries, and I have taken first about 4 or 5 times and finished top 5 to cash almost every other year.I would love to hear your thoughts in <a href="https://discord.gg/sharp-app-sports-betting-750497266552537217" title="">Discord</a> about how you are playing it.Do Not Miss Out On Our Free Bracket Challenge. Click <a href="https://sharp.app/ncaab/march-madness-bracket" title="">HERE</a> to Join!

Winning Your Bracket Takes More Than Picking Who You Think Will Win - Game Theory 2023 March Madness

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NCAA MARCH MADNESS FINALS MODEL LINES

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Winning Your Bracket Takes More Than Picking Who You Think Will Win - Game Theory 2023 March Madness

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