Fighton's March Madness Model

Welcome to March Madness! For those who don't know me, my name is Ryan and I used to be a coach/pro capper here focusing on College Sports. With my own models, I made an annual tool for filling out March Madness brackets.

A few notes:

  1. You get view-only access with the link. Your first thing you should do is go file --> Make a Copy. That way you can use the tool in its entirety.
  2. The sheet is split into 3 sections: 
    1. Rankings (This is the ranking of each team based on my model)
    2. First Round (This is a breakdown of the key items I look for in first round matchups
    3. Rest of Tournament (This is a breakdown of key items for rounds 2 through Championship)

A few key things:

  1. First Round Upset Chance - Chance that the lower seed will win (it does not factor in who the actual favorite is)
  2. First Round Blowout Chance - Chance that the game will be a blowout (>20 points)
  3. First Round L30 Upset Chance - Using Recent data only to tell whether an upset will occur. Indication of momentum

The same rules apply for the rest of data. The key in rest of data is you can use the drop downs in row 8 to select any 2 teams. So you can use to fill in the rest of the bracket. Same rules apply. Includes expected spread, Upset chance and blowout chance.

Good luck everyone