There is now a Top Prop tab in the game center. These are the top prop choices based on our projections. I consider those projections on the model I'm running to give you the Top Props article, which is filtered to provide you with only the props I'm betting. For now, I will be sticking to K props. I may expand as the season goes on.The season long P/L is at 16.3 units<table><tr><th>Player</th><th>Team</th><th>Stat</th><th>Proj</th><th>Prop</th><th>O/U</th><th>Juice</th><th>Book</th><th>Edge</th><th>At Worst</th></tr><tr><td>Zac Gallen</td><td>ARI</td><td>K's</td><td>5.63</td><td>4.5</td><td>O</td><td>-105</td><td>Caesars</td><td>15.02%</td><td>-130</td></tr></table>

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Top Props - MLB November 1, 2023

In an Interleague matchup scheduled for November 1, 2023, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Texas Rangers at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks, the home team, are projected to start right-handed pitcher Zac Gallen, while the Rangers will counter with right-handed pitcher Nathan Eovaldi.Gallen, ranked as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had an impressive season. In 34 starts, he has recorded a 17-9 win/loss record with a 3.47 ERA. However, his 4.16 xERA suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could potentially perform worse going forward.On the other hand, Eovaldi, ranked 86th in the Power Rankings, has started 25 games this year and boasts a 12-5 win/loss record with a 3.63 ERA. Similar to Gallen, his 4.18 SIERA indicates that he may have been fortunate this season and could see a decline in performance.The Diamondbacks offense ranks 17th in MLB, while the Rangers offense is ranked 3rd. The Rangers have excelled in team batting average and home runs, ranking 2nd and 5th respectively. However, their stolen bases rank 25th, which is a weakness in their offensive game.In their last game, the Diamondbacks played against an unknown opponent, while the Rangers faced an unidentified team as well. Unfortunately, the specific details of these games are not provided.Looking at the projections, Gallen is expected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 5.3 batters. However, he is projected to give up 4.9 hits and walks, which is considered below average.Eovaldi, on the other hand, is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 4.4 batters. His hits and walks projections are also high, with 5.2 hits and walks on average.While the Rangers have a strong offense, Gallen's low-walk pitching style may neutralize their patient approach at the plate. This could give the Diamondbacks an advantage in the matchup.Overall, this game promises to be an intriguing battle between two competitive teams. The Diamondbacks will look to capitalize on their solid pitching and average-ranked offense, while the Rangers will aim to showcase their powerful lineup. With both teams having strong bullpens, the outcome may come down to which offense can exploit the opposing pitcher's weaknesses.<h2>Rangers Insights</h2><ul><li>Among all the teams in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.</li><li>Nathaniel Lowe is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Arizona (#2-best of all teams on the slate).</li><li>According to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model), the Texas Rangers' bullpen grades out as the 8th-best among all teams in the majors.</li></ul><h2>Diamondbacks Insights</h2><ul><li>Zac Gallen has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 6.5 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.</li><li>Evan Longoria is penciled in 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.</li><li>Tommy Pham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.6% &mdash; 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 137 games (+11.80 Units / 8% ROI)</li><li>The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 94 of their last 168 games (+26.43 Units / 11% ROI)</li><li>Ketel Marte has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 52% ROI)</li></ul>

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Rangers vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - November 1st, 2023

<h5>We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8% to 10% on totals. In the age of big data and advanced analytics, sports predictive models have become an indispensable tool for bettors and sports enthusiasts alike. These models, often powered by sophisticated algorithms and vast amounts of data, aim to forecast the outcome of sports events with a higher degree of accuracy than human intuition alone. But while they offer numerous advantages, they also come with their own set of limitations.</h5>Advantages of Sports Betting Models:<ol><li>Data-Driven Decisions: One of the primary benefits of using predictive models is that they base their predictions on hard data. This means that instead of relying on gut feelings or biases, bettors can make informed decisions based on historical performance, player statistics, and other quantifiable metrics.</li><li>Identification of Value: Predictive models can help bettors identify potential value in bets. If a model predicts a different outcome than the odds provided by bookmakers, there might be an opportunity for a value bet.</li><li>Consistency: Human judgment can be inconsistent, swayed by emotions, recent events, or personal biases. Predictive models, on the other hand, are consistent in their approach, evaluating every game based on the same set of criteria.</li><li>Efficiency: With the ability to process vast amounts of data quickly, these models can evaluate numerous variables and scenarios in a fraction of the time it would take a human.</li></ol>Limitations of Sports Betting Models:<ol><li>Unpredictable Variables: As the saying goes, &quot;sports are unpredictable.&quot; There are countless variables that a model might not account for. For instance, what a player did the night before a game, sudden illnesses, or personal issues can significantly impact their performance but might not be reflected in the model.</li><li>Weather Impact: While some models might factor in general weather conditions, the nuanced effects of weather on outdoor sports can be challenging to predict. A sudden gust of wind or a brief downpour can change the dynamics of a game in ways a model might not foresee.</li><li>Over-reliance: There's a danger in becoming too dependent on models. Bettors might ignore their own knowledge or insights about a game, thinking the model knows best. This can lead to missed opportunities or misguided bets.</li><li>Model Accuracy: No model is perfect. Even the most sophisticated predictive models can and do get predictions wrong. It's essential to understand that these are tools to aid decision-making, not guarantee outcomes.</li><li>Data Limitations: The accuracy of a model is only as good as the data it's fed. If there's a lack of comprehensive data or if the data is outdated, the model's predictions can be skewed.</li></ol>While sports predictive models offer a more systematic and data-driven approach to betting, they are not infallible. They serve best as a guide, complementing a bettor's own knowledge and insights. It's essential to balance relying on the model and understanding its limitations, ensuring that bets are placed not just on numbers and algorithms but also on a comprehensive understanding of the game.MLB BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 31, 2023<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/iaaL31yarIJy8iB4CIoPH/27ddf24d919493a1b7a1b6a1be65186d/Screenshot_2023-10-31_082356.png"/>Baseball enthusiasts and betting buffs, the Texas Rangers, and Arizona Diamondbacks face off tonight in what promises to be a game of strategy, skill, and sheer unpredictability. If you're on the fence like myself about where to place your wager, let's break down the pros of each side. Note: the model shows no value in this gameWhy the Rangers:<ol><li>The Heaney Factor: Andrew Heaney, despite some rough patches, is taking the mound for the Rangers. With a credible postseason record and the potential for early multi-inning support from Dane Dunning and maybe even Cody Bradford or Martin Perez, the Rangers have depth in pitching. And while Perez&rsquo;s role might be nebulous, having such choices allows for quick adaptations to the game's pace.</li><li>Offensive Might: Statistically, the Rangers have a stronger offense, which could be the game-changer against a collection of average arms from both teams. With the postseason spotlight on them, this could be the edge they need.</li><li>History of Adaptability: The Rangers' recent games have showcased their ability to switch strategies on the fly. Manager Bruce Bochy has been particularly adept at making early pitching changes, and optimizing outcomes based on real-time game developments.</li><li>The Garcia Wildcard: Adolis Garcia's potential return could offer the Rangers the offensive boost they need. Even if he's not at 100% after that worrying Game 3 incident, his mere presence could be a psychological win for the team.</li></ol>Why the Diamondbacks:<ol><li>Bullpen Brilliance: The Diamondbacks might've had a lackluster bullpen in the regular season, but come postseason, they've been on fire. Their ability to leverage players like Paul Sewald, Kevin Ginkel, and especially Joe Mantiply (who's set to open against the Rangers) can't be underestimated.</li><li>The Nelson Debate: While Ryne Nelson's recent performances and statistics might not inspire confidence, baseball is a game of surprises. Nelson's potential return to form, combined with Manager Tony Lovullo's knack for shuffling his bullpen effectively, means the D-backs could pull a rabbit out of the hat.</li><li>Home Turf Advantage: Playing at home, with the crowd behind them, could give the Diamondbacks the extra motivation and momentum they need. History shows they've thrived in such situations.</li><li>Resilient Track Record: The Diamondbacks have demonstrated a unique resilience this World Series. Their journey to this stage, coupled with their proven record in bullpen games, indicates they're a force to reckon with, especially under pressure.</li></ol>To sum it all up, both teams have their strengths and strategies lined up for the showdown. Whether you lean towards the Rangers' offensive prowess or the Diamondbacks' bullpen brilliance, it promises to be a great game.Good luck today!Join <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games and get 20% off for life with promo code anthonyp20

MLB MODEL 

Anthony P's World Series Game 4, Oct 31, 2023

On October 31, 2023, the Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the Texas Rangers at Chase Field. This interleague matchup is the fourth game in the series between the two teams. The Diamondbacks, as the home team, will be looking to defend their turf and secure a win against the Rangers.The Diamondbacks are projected to start left-handed pitcher Joe Mantiply, who has primarily been used out of the bullpen this year. Despite being ranked as the #132 best starting pitcher in MLB, Mantiply has shown decent performance with a 2-2 win/loss record and an average ERA of 4.62. Peripheral indicators such as SIERA, xERA, and FIP suggest that he has been unlucky this year and may perform better going forward.Mantiply is known for his ability to induce ground balls with a 54% groundball rate. This could pose a challenge for the powerful Rangers offense, which ranks fifth in MLB with 165 home runs this season. If the Rangers struggle to hit the ball in the air, it may limit their ability to capitalize on their home-run power.The Rangers will counter with left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney, who has started 28 games this year. While Heaney has a solid 10-6 win/loss record, his ERA of 4.15 suggests that he is slightly above average. However, his FIP indicates that he may have been lucky this year and could potentially perform worse going forward.According to the statistics, both Mantiply and Heaney are projected to have below-average performances in this game. Mantiply is expected to pitch around 3.7 innings and allow 2.0 earned runs on average. He is also projected to strike out 2.8 batters but give up 4.2 hits and walks, which is not ideal. On the other hand, Heaney is expected to pitch around 4.3 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs on average. He is projected to strike out 4.2 batters but give up 4.6 hits and walks, which is also not favorable.In terms of offense, the Diamondbacks rank 17th in MLB, while the Rangers boast the third-best offense. The Diamondbacks have shown average performance in team batting average and home runs, but excel in stolen bases. The Rangers, on the other hand, rank highly in all three categories except stolen bases, where they are ranked 25th.Based on the current odds, both teams have an equal implied win probability of 50%. The game total is set at 9.5 runs, indicating an expectation of a high-scoring game. The Sharp Model X projects both teams to score an average of 0.00 runs in this game, which suggests a potentially low-scoring affair.While the statistics and projections point to a competitive matchup, it remains to be seen which team will come out on top. The Diamondbacks will rely on their home field advantage and strong bullpen, while the Rangers will look to their potent offense to secure a victory. As the game unfolds on October 31st, baseball fans and bettors alike will be eagerly watching to see how this interleague showdown plays out.<h2>Rangers Insights</h2><ul><li>The leading projection system (The Sharp Model X) expects Andrew Heaney to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.</li><li>According to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model), the Texas Rangers' bullpen profiles as the 8th-best out of all MLB teams.</li></ul><h2>Diamondbacks Insights</h2><ul><li>Alek Thomas is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Texas (#1-best of the day).</li><li>Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% &mdash; 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 97 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)</li><li>The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 87 of their last 158 games (+21.78 Units / 10% ROI)</li><li>Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+8.35 Units / 83% ROI)</li></ul>

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Rangers vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 31st, 2023

The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to host the Texas Rangers at Chase Field on October 30, 2023, in a highly anticipated interleague matchup. Both teams are vying for a win in the third game of the series.The Diamondbacks, as the home team, will look to make the most of their advantage. On the mound, they are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt has had a tough season, with a 3-9 win/loss record and a 5.72 ERA. However, his 4.47 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the upcoming game.The Rangers will counter with their ace, right-handed pitcher Max Scherzer. Scherzer is ranked as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He has started 27 games this year, with a 13-6 win/loss record and a 3.77 ERA. His 3.26 xERA indicates that he has the potential to perform even better than his current stats suggest.Both teams have shown offensive prowess throughout the season. The Diamondbacks rank 17th in MLB in overall offensive performance, while the Rangers rank 3rd. However, the Diamondbacks have the advantage in stolen bases, ranking 3rd in the league. The Rangers, on the other hand, excel in batting average (2nd) and home runs (5th).In terms of bullpen strength, the Diamondbacks have the 3rd best bullpen in MLB, according to our Power Rankings, while the Rangers rank 9th. This could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game.Taking a closer look at individual performances, the Diamondbacks' best hitter this season has been undisclosed. However, over the last seven games, Tommy Pham has been their standout player, recording 6 hits, 4 runs, 2 home runs, and a .375 batting average with a 1.250 OPS. The Rangers' best hitter this season remains undisclosed, and their top performer over the last week is also unknown.Considering the pitching matchup, Brandon Pfaadt's high-flyball tendencies could be exploited by the powerful Rangers offense, which ranks 5th in home runs this season. However, Pfaadt's low-walk rate could neutralize the Rangers' patient approach at the plate.The game total for this matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring contest. The Diamondbacks are listed at -110 on the moneyline, suggesting a 50% implied win probability, as are the Rangers. Both teams are evenly matched according to the betting markets.Overall, this game promises an exciting showdown between two teams with different strengths. The Diamondbacks will rely on their home-field advantage and bullpen, while the Rangers will look to their potent offense and Scherzer's dominant pitching.<h2>Rangers Insights</h2><ul><li>Max Scherzer projects as the 10th-best pitcher in baseball right now when assessing his strikeout ability, per the leading projection system (The Sharp Model).</li><li>Nathaniel Lowe is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Arizona (#2-best on the slate).</li><li>Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% &mdash; 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's game.</li></ul><h2>Diamondbacks Insights</h2><ul><li>Out of all the teams in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.</li><li>Evan Longoria is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.</li><li>The weakest projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 95 games (+12.00 Units / 12% ROI)</li><li>The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 93 of their last 167 games (+20.65 Units / 10% ROI)</li><li>Gabriel Moreno has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.00 Units / 29% ROI)</li></ul>

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Rangers vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 30th, 2023

<h5>We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8% to 10% on totals. In the age of big data and advanced analytics, sports predictive models have become an indispensable tool for bettors and sports enthusiasts alike. These models, often powered by sophisticated algorithms and vast amounts of data, aim to forecast the outcome of sports events with a higher degree of accuracy than human intuition alone. But while they offer numerous advantages, they also come with their own set of limitations.</h5>Advantages of Sports Betting Models:<ol><li>Data-Driven Decisions: One of the primary benefits of using predictive models is that they base their predictions on hard data. This means that instead of relying on gut feelings or biases, bettors can make informed decisions based on historical performance, player statistics, and other quantifiable metrics.</li><li>Identification of Value: Predictive models can help bettors identify potential value in bets. If a model predicts a different outcome than the odds provided by bookmakers, there might be an opportunity for a value bet.</li><li>Consistency: Human judgment can be inconsistent, swayed by emotions, recent events, or personal biases. Predictive models, on the other hand, are consistent in their approach, evaluating every game based on the same set of criteria.</li><li>Efficiency: With the ability to process vast amounts of data quickly, these models can evaluate numerous variables and scenarios in a fraction of the time it would take a human.</li></ol>Limitations of Sports Betting Models:<ol><li>Unpredictable Variables: As the saying goes, &quot;sports are unpredictable.&quot; There are countless variables that a model might not account for. For instance, what a player did the night before a game, sudden illnesses, or personal issues can significantly impact their performance but might not be reflected in the model.</li><li>Weather Impact: While some models might factor in general weather conditions, the nuanced effects of weather on outdoor sports can be challenging to predict. A sudden gust of wind or a brief downpour can change the dynamics of a game in ways a model might not foresee.</li><li>Over-reliance: There's a danger in becoming too dependent on models. Bettors might ignore their own knowledge or insights about a game, thinking the model knows best. This can lead to missed opportunities or misguided bets.</li><li>Model Accuracy: No model is perfect. Even the most sophisticated predictive models can and do get predictions wrong. It's essential to understand that these are tools to aid decision-making, not guarantee outcomes.</li><li>Data Limitations: The accuracy of a model is only as good as the data it's fed. If there's a lack of comprehensive data or if the data is outdated, the model's predictions can be skewed.</li></ol>While sports predictive models offer a more systematic and data-driven approach to betting, they are not infallible. They serve best as a guide, complementing a bettor's own knowledge and insights. It's essential to balance relying on the model and understanding its limitations, ensuring that bets are placed not just on numbers and algorithms but also on a comprehensive understanding of the game.MLB BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 30, 2023<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/7EIhIUvjccocS6f5Q3rAm/106f1a29b2ebc62800e79b1db36a55cd/Screenshot_2023-10-30_081002.png"/>Game 3 is on the horizon, but with a packed schedule of NBA, NHL, and Monday Night Football, my plate's pretty full. I might kick myself later, but juggling all these games makes it hard to zero in on just one. It's still the crack of dawn on Monday, but I've peeked at the book, and things are looking balanced on both the moneyline and the total.The MLB betting model suggests a lean toward the Rangers, but numbers don't always tell the full story. They aren't capturing Pfaadt's recent rise or the dip in Max's pitch velocity. Let's dive deeper into this matchup and see if we're on the same page as the model.In the high stakes of the World Series, Game 3 isn&rsquo;t just another match; it&rsquo;s a shifting battlefield. The Texas Rangers, after enjoying the home advantage, now head into snake territory, with the Arizona Diamondbacks ready to hiss their warning on their home turf. With a possible three-game streak at Chase Field, the DBacks have the chance to shut the door without letting Texas get another glimpse of the championship. Now that's a tall order, but don't be too quick to throw in the towel on the snakes.Rookie sensation Brandon Pfaadt takes the mound for the Diamondbacks, and he's been anything but green in October. Regular season stats can be deceiving, as Pfaadt&rsquo;s 2.70 ERA in the postseason has silenced many doubters. Going from a 22% strikeout rate to a blazing 33% in the playoffs, this kid's arm has found its groove. It&rsquo;s been clear that when Pfaadt's up in the count, hitters should be wary.On the flip side, the Rangers bring in the legend, Max Scherzer. Age and experience are on his side, but recent performances suggest a dip in his dominating aura. His triceps injury seems to have taken a toll, with a postseason ERA touching 9.45 in 6.2 innings. The Diamondbacks, with their hot bats, might just find Scherzer's deliveries a bit more appetizing than before.The history books are also smiling down on Arizona. Having taken four of their last five meetings against the Rangers, and a strong 3-1 stance at home this postseason, the momentum is surely on their side. Scherzer, with his years and potential shoulder woes, might be put on a tight leash by the Rangers. The DBacks could capitalize early, and with Pfaadt's recent heroics &ndash; especially the stellar game 7 performance in Philly &ndash; they might just edge ahead.Interestingly, while the Rangers have an impressive MLB postseason record with eight consecutive road wins, the Diamondbacks have shown that at home, they pack a punch. They've hit six homers in just four postseason home games. Pfaadt, with his 16 strikeouts in his last two starts and no runs allowed at home in the playoffs, might be the wild card that turns the table in Arizona's favor.The oddsmakers have this pegged as a pick'em, but with Pfaadt's sizzling form, Scherzer's shaky stats post-injury, and Arizona&rsquo;s home dominance, I'm placing my chips on the Diamondbacks. I understand the value presented by the Rangers however I don't agree with it. Good luck today!Join <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games and get 20% off for life with promo code anthonyp20

Anthony P's MLB Model October 30, 2023

Val&rsquo;s Big Payday Parlay, pays +1038Winnipeg Jets -.5 +105The Jets are in Montreal to face the Habs tonight, the Jets come into this one having won 3 straight and the Habs are off a 3rd period comeback versus the Blue Jackets. The Has are 4-2-1 on the season but let's be realistic here, they've beaten the Caps, Blue Jackets, Blackhawks and Sabres, not really the creme de la creme of the NHL. The Jets are definitely in the upper tier of the NHL with the likes of Scheifele, Helleybuyck and Connor on their roster. I like the Jets to get the job done in regulation tonight. Vancouver Canucks +147Two teams on 3 game winning streaks face off tonight when the Rangers and Canucks go at it. The Rangers will be playing their 4th game of a 5 game road trip that has seen the beat the Kraken, Flames and Oilers, their goaltending has been phenomenal giving up only 2 goals over 3 games, but face a Canucks team that is one of the better scoring teams in the league averaging 4 goals a game. Going undefeated on a road trip is very difficult to do, especially one on the west coast, plus the Rangers have struggled in Vancouver in the past losing 5 of their last 7 meetings there, so I will back the underdog Canucks. Arizona DBacks +133The Rangers won in dramatic fashion last night tying the game in the 9th and winning it in extras on an A. Garcia walkoff homer. If G1 was any indication of what this series will be we're in for one hell of a good one. Tonight it will be M. Kelly versus J. Montgomery on the mound, both pitchers have pitched well in the series but neither is in really a position of strength as Kelly wasn't great on the road this season or in the playoffs (road) while Montgomery wasn't very good at home during the season or the playoffs (home) either so far. What I like about DBacks manager T. Lovullo is that he's a guy still willing to play small ball to win a game and that has been lost with this analytics garbage. Analytics can and do work during the season by the playoffs are different beast and must be played differently. DBacks even up this series. Join the Sharp App and use code val20 for a discounthttps://sharp.appJoin <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @mtlkid any questions you have on other games

Val’s Big Payday Parlay Oct 28th 2023

There is now a Top Prop tab in the game center. These are the top prop choices based on our projections. I consider those projections on the model I'm running to give you the Top Props article, which is filtered to provide you with only the props I'm betting. For now, I will be sticking to K props. I may expand as the season goes on.The season long P/L is at 16.1 units<table><tr><th>Player</th><th>Team</th><th>Stat</th><th>Proj</th><th>Prop</th><th>O/U</th><th>Juice</th><th>Book</th><th>Edge</th><th>At Worst</th></tr><tr><td>Corbin Carroll</td><td>ARI</td><td>RBI</td><td>0.48</td><td>0.5</td><td>O</td><td>270</td><td>BetMGM</td><td>11.10%</td><td>260</td></tr><tr><td>Corey Seager</td><td>TEX</td><td>RBI</td><td>0.77</td><td>0.5</td><td>O</td><td>140</td><td>BetMGM</td><td>12.00%</td><td>130</td></tr></table>

Top Props - MLB October 28, 2023

<h5>We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8% to 10% on totals. In the age of big data and advanced analytics, sports predictive models have become an indispensable tool for bettors and sports enthusiasts alike. These models, often powered by sophisticated algorithms and vast amounts of data, aim to forecast the outcome of sports events with a higher degree of accuracy than human intuition alone. But while they offer numerous advantages, they also come with their own set of limitations.</h5>Advantages of Sports Betting Models:<ol><li>Data-Driven Decisions: One of the primary benefits of using predictive models is that they base their predictions on hard data. This means that instead of relying on gut feelings or biases, bettors can make informed decisions based on historical performance, player statistics, and other quantifiable metrics.</li><li>Identification of Value: Predictive models can help bettors identify potential value in bets. If a model predicts a different outcome than the odds provided by bookmakers, there might be an opportunity for a value bet.</li><li>Consistency: Human judgment can be inconsistent, swayed by emotions, recent events, or personal biases. Predictive models, on the other hand, are consistent in their approach, evaluating every game based on the same set of criteria.</li><li>Efficiency: With the ability to process vast amounts of data quickly, these models can evaluate numerous variables and scenarios in a fraction of the time it would take a human.</li></ol>Limitations of Sports Betting Models:<ol><li>Unpredictable Variables: As the saying goes, &quot;sports are unpredictable.&quot; There are countless variables that a model might not account for. For instance, what a player did the night before a game, sudden illnesses, or personal issues can significantly impact their performance but might not be reflected in the model.</li><li>Weather Impact: While some models might factor in general weather conditions, the nuanced effects of weather on outdoor sports can be challenging to predict. A sudden gust of wind or a brief downpour can change the dynamics of a game in ways a model might not foresee.</li><li>Over-reliance: There's a danger in becoming too dependent on models. Bettors might ignore their own knowledge or insights about a game, thinking the model knows best. This can lead to missed opportunities or misguided bets.</li><li>Model Accuracy: No model is perfect. Even the most sophisticated predictive models can and do get predictions wrong. It's essential to understand that these are tools to aid decision-making, not guarantee outcomes.</li><li>Data Limitations: The accuracy of a model is only as good as the data it's fed. If there's a lack of comprehensive data or if the data is outdated, the model's predictions can be skewed.</li></ol>While sports predictive models offer a more systematic and data-driven approach to betting, they are not infallible. They serve best as a guide, complementing a bettor's own knowledge and insights. It's essential to balance relying on the model and understanding its limitations, ensuring that bets are placed not just on numbers and algorithms but also on a comprehensive understanding of the game.MLB BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 28, 2023<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/1d8Qurzadh7bjAnVlQr2IX/c40497ab7ee8c46528dc9b5d74cef026/Screenshot_2023-10-28_103922.png"/>Good luck today!Join <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games and get 20% off for life with promo code anthonyp20

Anthony P's MLB Model October 28, 2023

On October 28, 2023, the Texas Rangers will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Globe Life Field. As the home team, the Rangers will have the advantage of the home-field advantage. This game is part of an Interleague matchup, adding an extra layer of excitement.The Rangers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jordan Montgomery, who is ranked as the #65 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Montgomery has had a solid season, with a Win/Loss record of 10-11 and an impressive ERA of 3.20. However, his 4.02 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could regress in future performances.On the other side, the Diamondbacks will counter with right-handed pitcher Merrill Kelly, who is ranked as the #61 best starting pitcher in MLB. Kelly has been reliable for the Diamondbacks this season, boasting a record of 12-8 and an ERA of 3.29. Similar to Montgomery, his 3.84 xFIP indicates that he may have benefited from some luck and could see a decline in future performances.This matchup is the second game in the series between these two teams. In their last game, the Rangers emerged victorious with a score of 6-5. They were considered favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -160 and an implied win probability of 60%. The Diamondbacks, as underdogs, had a closing Moneyline price of +140 and an implied win probability of 40%.The Rangers have showcased a strong offense this season, ranking as the #3 best in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking #2, and team home runs, ranking #5. However, their weakness lies in stolen bases, ranking #25. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks possess an average offense, ranking #17 in MLB. They perform decently in team batting average, ranking #11, and team home runs, ranking #19. Their strength lies in stolen bases, where they rank #3.According to The Sharp Model X, the leading MLB projection system, the Rangers are the favorites in this game, with a projected win probability of 59%. The Diamondbacks, in contrast, have a projected win probability of 41%.In their last start, Montgomery pitched well, going 5 innings with 2 earned runs, 3 strikeouts, 5 hits, and 2 walks. Kelly also had a solid outing, pitching 5 innings with 1 earned run, 8 strikeouts, 3 hits, and 3 walks.With the Rangers' strong offense and the Diamondbacks' reliable bullpen, this game promises to be an exciting matchup. Both teams will be looking to secure a victory and continue their pursuit of success.<h2>Diamondbacks Insights</h2><ul><li>The leading projection system (The Sharp Model) forecasts Merrill Kelly in the 79th percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.</li><li>The worst projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.</li></ul><h2>Rangers Insights</h2><ul><li>The Texas Rangers infield defense projects as the best out of every team playing today.</li><li>Nathaniel Lowe is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Arizona (#2-best of the day).</li><li>The Texas Rangers bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (The Sharp Model).</li></ul><h2>Betting Trends</h2><ul><li>The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 90 of their last 162 games (+25.26 Units / 11% ROI)</li><li>The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 136 games (+12.95 Units / 9% ROI)</li><li>Marcus Semien has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)</li></ul>

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Diamondbacks vs Rangers Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 28th, 2023

Val&rsquo;s Big Payday Parlay, pays +882LA Kings/Arizona Coyotes O6.5 evenThe Kings and Yotes play the back end of a home and home tonight between both teams. The Kings won at home three days ago by a score of 6-3, the over has been a trend for the Kings this season as they're 5-1 to the over in their first 6 games. The Yotes are 3-3 on the season to the over, but the Yotes seem to play to their competition when it comes to goals scored, versus teams like Stl, LA &amp;NJ, the game totals have been, 8, 9 &amp; 7, while games versus defensive teams Ana, NYI &amp; NYR have finished at 3, 1 &amp; 3 goals. So it's clear, they play a good offensive opponent and goals are scored, I like the over here.Vancouver Canucks -1.5 +129 The Blues are on a B2B after disposing of the Flames last night 3-0 behind a strong performance from J. Hofer in goal. Tonight it will be J. Binnington versus T. Demko in goal, both goalies are having a solid start to the season. The Canucks look to win their 3rd straight game and play their first game back from returning from a 4 game east coast road trip, usually this is a tough game to win, however, the Canucks have been home for 3 days now and I think that negates that aspect. The Canucks have a much better offensive team and I think they win this game comfortably tonight. Arizona DBacks/Texas Rangers U 4.5 -108 1st 5 inningsTonight is G1 of the World Series between the DBacks and Rangers, we will see Z. Gallen versus N. Eovaldi on the mound. Outside his starts versus the Phillies Gallen had been pitching really well in the playoffs and Eovaldi has been very good as well. Jitters may be afoot tonight as outside of C. Seager and E. Longoria, no position starter has been to the World Series in the past, I expect G1 one to be low scoring through out. I will go will the first 5 innings as the Rangers bullpen has been a little wonky of late. Join the Sharp App and use code val20 for a discounthttps://sharp.appJoin <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @mtlkid any questions you have on other games

Val’s Big Payday Parlay Oct 27th 2023

<h5>We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8% to 10% on totals. In the age of big data and advanced analytics, sports predictive models have become an indispensable tool for bettors and sports enthusiasts alike. These models, often powered by sophisticated algorithms and vast amounts of data, aim to forecast the outcome of sports events with a higher degree of accuracy than human intuition alone. But while they offer numerous advantages, they also come with their own set of limitations.</h5>Advantages of Sports Betting Models:<ol><li>Data-Driven Decisions: One of the primary benefits of using predictive models is that they base their predictions on hard data. This means that instead of relying on gut feelings or biases, bettors can make informed decisions based on historical performance, player statistics, and other quantifiable metrics.</li><li>Identification of Value: Predictive models can help bettors identify potential value in bets. If a model predicts a different outcome than the odds provided by bookmakers, there might be an opportunity for a value bet.</li><li>Consistency: Human judgment can be inconsistent, swayed by emotions, recent events, or personal biases. Predictive models, on the other hand, are consistent in their approach, evaluating every game based on the same set of criteria.</li><li>Efficiency: With the ability to process vast amounts of data quickly, these models can evaluate numerous variables and scenarios in a fraction of the time it would take a human.</li></ol>Limitations of Sports Betting Models:<ol><li>Unpredictable Variables: As the saying goes, &quot;sports are unpredictable.&quot; There are countless variables that a model might not account for. For instance, what a player did the night before a game, sudden illnesses, or personal issues can significantly impact their performance but might not be reflected in the model.</li><li>Weather Impact: While some models might factor in general weather conditions, the nuanced effects of weather on outdoor sports can be challenging to predict. A sudden gust of wind or a brief downpour can change the dynamics of a game in ways a model might not foresee.</li><li>Over-reliance: There's a danger in becoming too dependent on models. Bettors might ignore their own knowledge or insights about a game, thinking the model knows best. This can lead to missed opportunities or misguided bets.</li><li>Model Accuracy: No model is perfect. Even the most sophisticated predictive models can and do get predictions wrong. It's essential to understand that these are tools to aid decision-making, not guarantee outcomes.</li><li>Data Limitations: The accuracy of a model is only as good as the data it's fed. If there's a lack of comprehensive data or if the data is outdated, the model's predictions can be skewed.</li></ol>While sports predictive models offer a more systematic and data-driven approach to betting, they are not infallible. They serve best as a guide, complementing a bettor's own knowledge and insights. It's essential to balance relying on the model and understanding its limitations, ensuring that bets are placed not just on numbers and algorithms but also on a comprehensive understanding of the game.MLB BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 27, 2023<img src="http://images.ctfassets.net/i0fx1kvc87e4/6hvNMQ6DjevLjEzzgh6gCh/483d07e4ecdf6ed1c8410b54bf9c3df2/Screenshot_2023-10-27_094356.png"/>Welcome to the World Series showdown between Arizona and Texas! Quite the unexpected pairing, isn't it? Back in August, Arizona seemed like a long shot with the Cubs seemingly having a leg up. Yet, a single mishap on the outfield knocked the Cubs out of contention, paving the way for Arizona's shot at glory. Hypothetically, if this were just another season game, what would you have shelled out to witness this matchup? The betting model has been favoring Arizona on away games, but with Gallen's road performance in question, where do we place our trust?Tonight's matchup between the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks is shaping up to be one for the books just because it's the WS, but from a sports betting perspective, there's plenty to unpack. Let's dive deep into the nuances and trends to see where the smart money should be.The Lineup Dilemma:First off, it's essential to get the best bang for your buck. That said, while the line opened at -165 on the Rangers, it's worth shopping around to ensure you're getting the best deal since this moneyline has been moving down. Especially since the underdogs have been giving bettors a run for their money this postseason, making it vital to scrutinize every angle.Offensive Prowess:The Rangers boast an offensive machine that's been firing on all cylinders, both during the regular and postseason. Their dominance is particularly evident with runners in scoring position, which could spell trouble for the Diamondbacks.Pitching Concerns:Zac Gallen's playoff performance has raised a few eyebrows. Sporting a 5.24 ERA and a 6.93 FIP across four starts, there's clear evidence that some of his regular-season underlying metrics are coming back to haunt him. It doesn't help that he's been giving up hard hits at an alarming rate. The postseason has highlighted these flaws, with a whopping 13 runs on 24 hits. The drop in his K% from a regular-season in the postseason is nothing short of alarming. Couple this with his evident struggles on the road, and it's evident he's facing an uphill battle.In the Rangers' corner, Nathan Eovaldi's playoff resurgence has been nothing short of miraculous, considering his shaky return from injury at the regular season's tail-end. He's risen like a phoenix in the postseason, allowing just seven runs across four appearances, boasting an impressive 28 strikeouts against just four walks. This October beast mode shows he's likely to bring his A-game tonight. He's won all 4 games and going for a 5th victory.Key Matchups:Despite Gallen's woes, there's an interesting tidbit to consider: the Diamondbacks rank fourth against pitches over 95 mph, signaling they might have a fair shot against Eovaldi's fastballs. Expect some aggressive play, especially since they've had a good success rate with base stealing against Eovaldi. We've seen a similar performance against Nola is his last game.On the other hand, the Rangers' bullpen has been relatively inactive recently, which might see some rust when they're eventually called into action. If Gallen's fastball remains as flat as we've seen and the Diamondbacks can handle Eovaldi's pace, we might see an explosive start to the game.Final Thoughts:Nathan Eovaldi is a postseason marvel for the Rangers. Their consistent track record with him on the mound, paired with a well-oiled bullpen strategy, makes them favorites tonight. And while the Diamondbacks' surprising postseason run has defied expectations, facing a balanced and potent Rangers offense will be their toughest challenge yet.It's hard to trust Gallen on the road but the model still finds value in Arizona. Also the Whale placed a bet on the under. Good luck today!Join <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord</a> and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games and get 20% off for life with promo code anthonyp20

Anthony P's MLB Model October 27, 2023 

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