MLB Bet of the Day | September 5, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 233-216-8, +10.19u
RECAP: Yesterday was a blowout type of day, with the Twins and the total in Cinci losing within the first few innings. I cannot believe that Spencer Arrighetti was as horrible as he was yesterday - he was the worst pitcher in the world, and it ruined our total. Our lone winner was our MLB of the Day, where we gained back some profit on the total in Texas. Let’s profit on some daytime baseball! 

September 5th, 2024

Blake Snell is the reason why this line is where it’s at in today’s contest between the Giants and the Diamondbacks, but there’s a big reason why we’re taking the other side for the Diamondbacks to sweep the opposition today. 

The Giants are heavy hitters on the moneyline today, which is why we’re getting the Diamondbacks at +130 as well. The Giants are on both the Sportsbook Liabilities and the Squares side of the Sharp Report – which are both must-fade sections of the report. Our Sharp AI gives the Diamondbacks a 67% predictive win percentage in today’s contest, and our Money Handles are going crazy for this play. The Diamondbacks currently own only 29% of the betting handle, but a whopping 98% of the money handle this morning for the biggest difference I’ve seen in a play that’s manageable. We had some major line movement towards Arizona earlier today, and the public has pounced on Blake Snell to pitch well today. 

Both of these teams are really solid in game threes of their series’, with the Giants with the advantage overall. But the Giants have been really bad as of late, and the Diamondbacks have been hammering the ball in this series. Snell is riding some really good momentum, but listen to the past three offenses he’s faced off against: the Athletics, the Marlins, and the Mariners, three of the worst offenses in the league (at the time). 

Merrill Kelly scares me a little bit, but he’s been a workhorse for the Diamonbacks and is finally finding his groove. His last outing against the Giants went really well, as he pitched seven innings and allowed one run total. But this offense is just too good to count out in today’s contest. 

The Diamondbacks are scoring seven runs per game over their last ten games, and are getting on base higher than 35% of the time in that stretch. They’ve killed left-handed pitching this season, and Corbin Carroll is at MVP-level hitting right now. 

There may be more runs than we think in this game today, and that’s on the back of this heavy-hitting offense right now. Despite Blake Snell, we’re going to hammer Arizona today with some pretty decent juice. 

PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks ML

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