MLB Bet of the Day | September 3, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 229-213-8, +9.60u
RECAP: We lose our MLB of the Day, but this is why it pays to be PRO+ Subscriber, as we hit our other two plays on the day to go a nice little 2-1 on a Monday and gain close to a unit. The Royals fell flat during their day game, but the total in New York hit easily and the Mets took the lead and never looked back. On to today! 

September 3rd, 2024

Today, we’re going dumpster diving in the NL East as the Marlins are taking on the Nationals in Miami. Max Meyer, someone who I am a huge fan of, is taking on Patrick Corbin, someone who I am not a huge fan of. But nevertheless… we’re backing the away team to take the win today. 

Corbin hasn’t looked like himself in his past three starts, and that’s a good thing. Over his last three times pitching, he’s allowed just three earned runs over his last sixteen innings, and he’s looked great against some bad teams this season - and has recently dominated the likes of the Yankees, Rockies, and Phillies. Those three offenses are all above average, and Corbin has diced them.

Plus, this Marlins team is the worst in the league against lefties this season. They’re hitting just .211 against lefties over their last ten games, and are getting on base just 26% of the time. They are barely getting hits even against these pitchers, averaging just three hits per nine innings against lefties during this stretch. Only three batters in today’s Marlins lineup have enough big league at-bats this season to qualify for advanced stats, too – these are young guys without much experience. 

Max Meyer is one of my favorite young arms in the league, but he is going to struggle in this matchup against a decent Nationals team. In fact, Sharp AI gives the Nationals a 61% predictive win percentage tonight, and while the money handles aren’t exactly where we like them, they’re still in our favor tonight. Since the All-Star Break, he’s giving opposing batters a WHIP of 1.66. That’s not ideal. 

Finally, the Nats thrive in game one this season. Especially coming off of a loss, the Nationals are 15-12 this season in game one - the Marlins, after a win (which they picked up against the Giants), they’re 6-15 this season, and they have had quite a bit to travel over the past two days after a massive West Coast road trip in Colorado and San Fran. 

We’re going to back the away team, despite them just getting swept by the Cubs. Dylan Crews and company should be able to supply their starter with enough runs today to get by. 

PICK: Washington Nationals ML

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!