MLB Bet of the Day | August 30, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 222-210-8, +6.17u
RECAP: We go 2-1 in the MLB yesterday with our plays, including hitting a number of totals in the MLB. The totals have been on fire throughout this month, as we’ve gained quite a bit of units in baseball this season. If we were able to keep this up throughout the entire summer, we would be sitting up much more than we are now; but for now, let’s look to keep the winning ways going! 

August 30th, 2024

We’re going to Cleveland today to take on the Pirates, as we’re going to target Bailey Falter today (and like we have all season long). 

Bailey Falter has been the epitome of a consistent disaster over his last stretch of games, allowing 21 hits, eleven runs, and has only accumulated fourteen innings pitched in that stretch. He’s in the bottom fifty percent in nearly every advanced category available, and his whiff percentage and xBA are literally so laughable. In away games, he’s allowed a WHIP of 1.25 this season and since the All-Star Break, his WHIP is up to 1.55 in five games. August has been even more miserable for him, allowing a crazy WHIP of 1.68 per inning… yikes! 

On the other side is Ben Lively, who isn’t much better at producing swings and misses, but is much better at missing barrels and getting ground balls, especially at one of the best fly-ball ballparks in the league. After the All-Star Break, he’s allowed a run just about every other inning, but has been much better at home than on the road this season. Plus, he’s been a workhorse throughout his last two games, pitching over twelve innings and then handing it over to a lights-out, rested Cleveland bullpen. 

And while Pittsburgh has undoubtedly been the better offense throughout the last ten games, they aren’t walking much and will be facing one of the best pitching staffs and one of the best bullpen WHIPs throughout the whole league. Cleveland has held pace with them throughout this stretch though, getting on base on-par with 31% of the time and is still pushing across nearly five runs per game in that stretch. 

Today, we’re taking a run line that could have a push involved, but we’ll take our chances against Bailey Falter, who in my eyes, is one of the most consistently bad in the league. And this Cleveland team will make him pay for it with their patience. 

PICK: Cleveland -1 (-110)

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