Ep 001 Bettor Thinking - Joseph Buchdahl

Summary 

In this conversation, Joseph Buchdahl and John Alesia delve into the intricacies of sports betting, exploring the differences between sharp and recreational bookmakers, the psychological aspects of betting, and the importance of understanding true odds. They discuss cognitive biases, loss aversion, and the role of variance in betting outcomes. The conversation also touches on the wisdom of crowds in determining odds and the complexities of professional betting, including bankroll management and the psychological factors that influence betting behavior. 

Takeaways 

The distinction between sharp and recreational bookmakers is crucial in understanding betting dynamics. Loss aversion significantly impacts bettors' psychology, making losses feel more painful than wins feel rewarding. Cognitive biases can lead bettors to overestimate their skills based on early wins. The wisdom of the crowd can help identify true odds in sports betting markets. Understanding true odds requires analyzing market dynamics and bookmaker behavior. Variance plays a significant role in betting outcomes, affecting both winning and losing streaks. Hedging can be a useful strategy for managing risk and reducing variance in betting. The anticipation of rewards drives the psychology of gambling, making 50-50 games particularly appealing. Professional betting is one of the hardest ways to make a living, requiring discipline and emotional detachment. The allure of betting often stems from the dopamine rush associated with potential wins. 

Chapters 00:00 Understanding the Wisdom of the Crowds in Sports Betting 07:10 The Dynamics of Betting Limits and Market Behavior 12:38 Cognitive Biases in Betting: Winning and Losing Perspectives 18:51 The Practical Application of Wisdom of the Crowds 29:04 Understanding Betting Psychology and Cognitive Biases 37:41 Variance and Betting Strategies 47:00 The Role of Dopamine in Gambling Behavior 55:06 The Intersection of Betting and Psychology 

Joseph Buchdahl Website ✅✅ https://www.football-data.co.uk/ ✅✅

Book Links 

✅✅Squares and Sharps, Suckers and Sharks: The Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling ✅✅ 

https://www.amazon.com/Squares-Sharps-Suckers-Sharks-Psychology/dp/0857304844/ref=sr_1_1?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.zogBhfP0Bgy1ewy6dlv_Tv_0BgcePhvxIc4ZVs9BE8fxoNhzTbQo1ucEqtm4W0SBzxOz3PUHxbQrWNcedZnDPQ.YqgknAJw1QcQoT61Ym6SfwJjhQoqJELiWky4edDhi0c&dib_tag=se&qid=1734282896&refinements=p_27%3AJoseph+Buchdahl&s=books&sr=1-1 

✅✅ Monte Carlo Or Bust ✅✅ https://www.amazon.com/Monte-Carlo-Bust-Simulations-Aspiring-ebook/dp/B095SXTZ19/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=4baZI&content-id=amzn1.sym.05575cf6-d484-437c-b7e0-42887775cf30&pf_rd_p=05575cf6-d484-437c-b7e0-42887775cf30&pf_rd_r=132-1669558-1651255&pd_rd_wg=TTb8F&pd_rd_r=b2c578d2-a578-482c-8596-60cce62fa092&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dsk 

✅✅ How to Find a Black Cat In A Coal Cellar ✅✅ https://www.amazon.com/How-Find-Black-Coal-Cellar-ebook/dp/B00EBNXNS8?ref_=ast_author_dp