MLB Bet of the Day | July 24, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 165-160-7, -0.71u
RECAP: Aaaaand we’re back in the negative for the season, going 1-2 on yesterday’s plays, including a bummer in Miami where the Orioles didn’t show up to play whatsoever yesterday. Our Team Total Parlay was crap, but the game in Seattle pulled us out of the trenches as we lose just over a unit on the day. We’ve got baseball all day long today, so let’s dive in! 

July 24th, 2024

Today we’re going to rely on the bats of two teams that have scored a total of six runs through the first two games of the series. I expect them to score more than the first two games combined, and then some, during one of the earliest games of the day. 

Coach Anthony’s model and my model agree here that this could be a smash spot between the Pirates and the Cardinals – where Matthew Liberatore is starting against Martin Perez of St. Louis. Liberatore won’t make it past the third inning, and his away splits are just atrocious – he’s allowing 1.34 WHIP to get on base per inning in away games, and he shouldn’t last long here. This Cardinals bullpen is absolutely gassed as it is, using all five of their best relievers during the day yesterday after Lynn’s strong outing. While they’ll still be ready to go, pitching on back to back days is never an easy task. 

Meanwhile the Pirates are throwing Martin Perez, a pitcher who has faced the Cardinals quite a bit throughout his career. He’s pitched well against them, but has an xBA that is .030 points higher than his allowed BA – meaning that he’s gotten lucky throughout his career against these bats, and this is a Cardinals team that has shown it’s hungry to get a series win here. Plus, Perez is in the bottom 50% in nearly every statistics this season, and his road numbers are just abysmal, allowing nearly two batters to reach base every single inning (1.79 WHIP). 

The Pirates have hit the under in four straight games, and very rarely do teams make it five straight – plus, being the home favorite is their most profitable “overs” strategy in the betting world. 

Let’s plan for some regression from both teams to the mean and for the bats to get hot today in the early game in Pittsburgh. This line has been moving all day, and let’s get it before it loses its value. 

PICK: St. Louis / Pittsburgh over 9

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