Val's Big Payday Parlay July 11th 2024

Val's Big Payday Parlay, pays +801

Atlanta Braves -1.5 +127 & Atlanta Braves/Arizona DBacks O8 -110

Yesterday we backed the Braves on the runline and over the total, the total easily hit in a game that finished 7-5, however, the Braves couldn't get the job done. Tonight with M. Fried and B. Pfaadt on the mound we go back to the Braves on the runline and over the total. Fried has really turned his season around after a really rough start in his first 4 games of the season where his ERA was 7.71. He's had a sub 3.00 ERA in May and June and lowered his season ERA to 3.18. Pfaadt isn't having a bad season from an ERA (4.18) perspective, however he hasn't put the DBacks in a position to win his starts as he only has 3 wins in 18 starts. He made a start versus the Braves in April which didn't go well at all in a Braves 9-8 win. I expect Pfaadt to struggle again here tonight versus the Braves. I like the Braves on the runline and over the total.

Toronto Blue Jays +108

The Jays and Giants play the rubber game of their three game series this afternoon when K. Gausman faces J. Hicks on the mound. Overall Gausman is not having a great season as his ERA is 4.64 compared to the fact that he's been a Cy Young candidate over the previous couple of season, however, he can hang his hat on the fact that he's been solid on the road this season with a 5-3 record and a 2.31 ERA. Hicks was solid in April with a sub 2.00 ERA, however, he has regressed in every month since, his May ERA was 3.99 and even worse in June at 5.24, and lost his first July start to the Braves. Even though the Giants at home I believe the Jays have the better starter on the mound with good road splits, I like the underdog Jays here.  

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