Anthony P's NBA Model October 26, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 26, 2022

The Pelicans never got to +7 yesterday but that was my best value if it got there. Apart from that, the model didn't show any value yesterday.

Tonight we have some interesting value on the Raptors, Trailblazers, and the over in Denver.

My contact at the book is telling me that there is not much interest in this game and the handle is at 52%. He did also tell me they moved the line based on US markets getting sharp interest in the 76ers. The line opened at a pickem and the 76ers are now 2 pt favorites. My model still likes the Raptors even without Porter and Barners but I won't support the value without them.

The 4-0 Trailblazers are underdogs to the 1-3 Heat and the model thinks the game should be closer to a pickem hence opening just about 8% EV on Portland. We have 2 sets of sharps on this game, the first set on Miani at +1 and the second set on Portland at +3. Miami is currently at -2.5 and it looks like they will move back to -3. I will 100% support the smoking-hot Trailblazers led by Lillard.

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