NBA Bet of the Day | October 30, 2024
In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of picks I also like for today.
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OVERALL RECORD: 06-08-00, -2.51u
RECAP: Last night shows that there’s still no such thing as a for sure bet in the NBA. We were on the under in Golden State, which not only had a significant advantage on Sharp AI, but also had a number of Sharp Bettors on the play as well, and it looked on pace in the first half… until Golden State exploded. We’ve been crap the past few days – let’s change it today.
October 30, 2024
The total in the game between the Thunder and the Spurs is just way too high, and we’re going to dive into why we’re taking this play as early as possible in order to get the best lines.
This game opened at O/U 224, and it’s just been steadily dropping all night long, until it’s landed on 221.5, where it is right now. Some may think, wow, that’s great - we’ve got more room on the over! But this line movement means that we’re seeing potential sharp money on the under here, and line movement on the under over the last eight hours (which you can view in the Sharp App) has been steadily dropping and then rising this morning. Our Sharp AI has this game at 224, which is where the initial line landed - that number, plus the line movement we’ve seen, is telling me that it’s time to back the line movement.
Plus, these are two teams whose pace of play is dictated by their ball movement and chemistry. There’s a deadly combination at play here; the Spurs are among the slowest-paced teams in the league, and they’re playing literally the best defense in the entire league. Not only are the Spurs not going to make baskets, but they’re going to take up the entire shot clock to do so. The Spurs are 26th in the league on average attempted field goals in a game this season.
The Spurs are a top ten defense as well, and the Thunder haven’t been able to find their groove just yet in this young NBA season, averaging 114 points per game, below last season’s average. The Thunder are averaging 95 total points allowed per game this season so far; they’re a menace on the defensive end. The Spurs score only 106 points per game so far as well – even if these teams get to their season averages, we’re still clearing this total by a point.
We’re taking the under due to line movement and where I project this line is going to continue to go. These defenses will show up once again.
PICK: San Antonio / OKC under 221.5
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