Anthony P's NBA Model November 9, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR NOV 9, 2022

NBA is back after a day with no games.

The Hornets are the first team showing value but they lost their last 5 by an average ATS margin of 14 pts against the Wizards, Grizzlies, and Bulls. Basically, they've looked like crap! Portland is banged up but has looked much better. They are 4-1 ATS last 5 games and played very well last 5 games. This line is very fishy though and it has to potentially do with Portland playing their 4th straight road game. Looking at Portland's offensive metrics, they are 22 in points per game with 110 pts per game but 3rd in 3PT% at 39.5 per game. Charlotte is 4th defensive 3 pointers and this is what can make the difference in this game. I'm ready to buy the Hornets low with this calculated risk that they will limit Portland from scoring 3's.

The Bulls is the other game to focus on. It will be a plus if Nance Jr doesn't play but we don't have a confirmation. What we do know is that Drummond is out at least until mid-November. The Pels have been doing some damage from the 3 range while the Bulls have been terrible and ranked 24th defending the long shot. The edge on the Bulls is mainly due to the Pels poor defensive play on the road. The Bulls have a healthy Lavine back and have limited the opposition to under 100 points in 3 of their last 5 games. Look for the Bulls to score over 120 and continue playing some solid D. I'm good to take them on the ML also.

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