Anthony P's NBA Model November 7, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR NOV 7, 2022

We have 4 interesting values for today and ill scrap one of them immediately. The model was strong on the Raptors last night but I was waiting for Siakam's status. Now that we know he's officially out till at least mid-November I have rearranged the Raptors power rankings without him. For tonight's game, both teams traveled to Chicago for a b2b game and I've removed LaVine and White from the projections. I hate to bet on b2b games so ill stay away from this game.

Detroit is showing close to 30% EV tonight against the Thunder. Apart from Gilgeous-Alexandre, the Thunder haven't got much scoring from the rest of the group. We don't have sharp money on the Thunder at the book however the line did move in their favor overnight moving from +2.5 to -1 and that opened the value on the Pistons. Detroit scored 179 points in their last 2 games and that is pathetic. They only won 2 games this season and both were at home. OKC is 1-3 on the road this season and this can be a good spot for the Pistons. ill trust the model here.

Very slow start for Embiid and his crew. They looked like shit against the Knicks and Washington losing both games SU. Harden is out, and Embiid is probable but we need confirmation for House Jr and Payne. They lost 4 of their last 5 home games and it won't get easier against the Suns that have won 6 of their last 7 games. If the 76ers line up a healthy bunch (minus Harden) this is a good spot in buying low on them since the squares will be all over the Suns.

6-3 Atlanta is a small +3 dog at home tonight against the perfect 9-0 Bucks. This can be a good spot for the Hawks since Giannis is banged up but should play tonight. We have to keep an eye on Young's status. He's questionable tonight dealing with some soreness but I'm sure he will do everything to be part of this game. Without Young, you fade this game and drop a dollar or 2 on the Bucks. With Young, the Hawks are top 5 in pace can give the Bucks issues who will be facing probably their toughest road game of the season.

There is some value in the under in Sacramento however the word under and Golden State doesn't go well together. The total is moving up and it's opening more value on the under but once again... NO THANK YOU!

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