Anthony P's NBA Model November 4, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR NOV 4, 2022

What a @!#@$(@(!% mess it was in Orlando last night. The Warriors gave up 130 to the Magic and lost the game straight up!!! The Warriors were on the sharp report with sharp money for most of the night and morning until money started coming in on the side at +9.

Then the under made on the sharp report and the model also liked the under! Boom let's lock it in! Let's move on.

We have a big slate and some decent value. The 76ers and T-Wolves top the chart. Also the under in LA between the Jazz and Lakers sport an EV of over 10%.

As for the 76ers, it's simple. Embiid is included in my projections however Harden is not therefore if Embiid is out the 76er value drops and no longer shows value. Now, we won't really know until close to tip-off if he will play and if he will play the line will move up which will probably be led by late square money. So it's up to you to take the risk if you intend to lock in the 76ers early. If you do and he plays you will get a better line, if he doesn't play I can see the line dropping to a pickem.

My model has Minnesota at -2 and I'm not sure how I feel about that. They've been inconsistent this year however they have Gobert to take care of Giannis and the Bucks have had an easy schedule up to now. This will be the Bucks second game on the road and they have yet to lose this year and sport a perfect 7-0 record. Minnesota matches up well versus the Bucks, however, and once again, we need to make sure that Gobert is playing tonight and if he does we need to make sure that he's 100%.

I agree with the total being too high in Los Angeles tonight between the Jazz and the Lakers. The Lakers have done very rebounding this year and the Jazz is top 3 in terms of steals. The Laker offense is 28th in scoring however is due for some positive regression. The Jazz offense is 10th in score however due to some negative regression. The Lakers defense is in the top 10 in defending FG and 3's and the Jazz is 4th in defending 3's so I agree with the under tonight.

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