Anthony P's NBA Model November 3, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will be adding new sports and models to the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR NOV 3, 2022

The best value plays yesterday were on the Hornets, Hawks, and Lakers. 2 of 3 cashed in.

Tonight we have one play that stands out and it's the under in Orlando. The under also just made it to the sharp report on our 11 am update.

Breaking it down I would also agree on the under based on how bad the Magic have been on offense. The Warriors have been bad on defense and usually, this would be a boost for the opponent however Orlando's slow-paced game would mitigate any expected incremental scoring and should also slow down the Warriors.

Adding to the Magic poor scoring metrics, their defense is above average and allows 111 pts per game, 108 last 5 games, and similar numbers at home. The under is 6-4 in the last 10 games and the under margin is close to 15.5 pts per game when the under hits and 12.5 pts when it goes over. This shows us how off the books have been in projecting a total when these 2 are facing each other. Digging a little deeper, the under is 10-4 last 14 games in Orlando and 5-2 in the last overall meetings.

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