Anthony P's NBA Model November 28, 2022

Anthony P
Anthony P
As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.
Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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The model is giving the Wizards 2 pts at home after dropping 3 straight on the road where they've out-rebounded their opposition in all 3 games. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus the Wizards and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 in Washington. Both teams are on b2b games which can make things a little more unpredictable however I do prefer the Wizard's defensives metrics while Minnesota's oSOS and dSOS are at the bottom of the league.

The Suns and Kings should be one hell of a game to watch. The Kings look like they are finally regressing and looked terrible in that second half in Boston. The Suns aren't playing well on the road this year with a 2-5 record however just won 4 straight at home and won't be intimated walking in Golden 1 Center. The King's defensive metrics are a complete disaster ranking at the bottom of the league in pts against, FG%, and 3PT% while the Suns offense is top 10 in Pts per game, 3PTs, and FT%. In what we anticipate is a close game, those FTs can make the difference. Even though the Suns road performances have me worried, they have the offensive and defensive edge in this game and I like them tonight.

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