Anthony P's NBA Model November 16, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR NOV 16, 2022

The model likes the under in OKC tonight however it's hard to consider taking into account that OKC has allowed close to 125 points per game in their last 5 games. The offense has done well lately also scoring close to 127 points per game last 5 games. Beal is set to return tonight and he can feast in OKC. I'd stay away.

The Raptors have been great at home this season and open as an underdog to Miami. The model thinks the wrong team is favored and has Toronto at -2. Porter Jr is out and he was removed from the projections however Trent Jr and VanVleet are still in the projections and they are questionable tonight. Remove those 2 and I have Miami at -4.39 even though Toronto has a betting net rating.

Lately, I've been very anxious betting on unders, and here is another game that I don't like. The Hawks and Celtics combine for 18-9-1 on the over this season and Boston have the 9th worst aDRTG (adj, defensive rating, pts allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for the strength of opposing offenses faced) but the #1 aORTG. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 H2H games and the games went under by about 18 pts per game. Seems the books can't price the total properly between these two. The average total was 221 and tonight it's set at 235.5 and moving up. The under looks really good if you like to combine trends with my NBA model projections.

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