Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Matchup Preview - September 27th, 2022
Editor
Right-hander Corey Kluber is expected to start today for Tampa Bay, while right-hander Shane Bieber gets the nod at home for Cleveland. Kluber enters this contest with a 4.30 ERA, backed up by a 3.60 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Bieber, meanwhile, has a 2.87 FIP underlying his 2.81 ERA. The last time Corey Kluber was on the bump, the Rays lost 2-5 versus the Astros. He left allowing 1 earned run and recording 2 strikeouts with 1 walk. Bieber's last start was against the White Sox, when he recorded the win as the Guardians were victorious 4-2. Over 7.2 innings pitched, he allowed 2 earned runs with 7 hits. He also recorded 5 strikeouts with 0 walks.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
Corey Kluber has relied on his cut-fastball 6.5% more often this season (33.8%) than he did last season (27.3%).
Francisco Mejia's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 89.3-mph EV last season has dropped to 87.2-mph.
The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to The Sharp Model X, and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season
Cleveland Guardians Insights
Shane Bieber's fastball velocity has fallen 2 mph this season (90.1 mph) below where it was last season (92.1 mph).
Andres Gimenez has been lucky this year, notching a .368 wOBA despite The Sharp Model X estimating his true talent level to be .311 — a .057 deviation.
The Cleveland Guardians bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in MLB, via THE BAT.
Betting Trends
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 82 of their last 144 games (+20.25 Units / 11% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 44 games (+6.25 Units / 11% ROI)
Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games at home (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
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