MLB Bet of the Day | April 26, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 35-33-0, +0.12u
RECAP: All of a sudden, we’re into the green in the MLB streets! We gained just over .20 units on the day to push us back into the green, with big thanks to the Chicago Cubs for being the realest of the real and winning outright. Our Guardians under really wasn’t ever in contention, despite so many Sharps on it; but we move on to today’s massive slate! 

April 26th, 2024

We’re staying in the AL Central, a division in which we’ve found nice and cozy and warm. This afternoon the Tigers are homebound to take on the Kansas City Royals, who are sending the journeyman veteran Seth Lugo to the mound in one of the best hitter-friendly parks in the league. 

The Tigers are sending out known-love of mine Reese Olson, who has shown that he has the stuff to be a great future second-or-third option in the rotation. He’s just about league-average in every single category in the pitching world, including ranking in the 50th percentile in xBA, 54th in walk percentage, and 41st in barrel percentage. Especially within the walls of Comerica, that’s exemplified. He’s only pitched once at home, but he absolutely dominated during that time, and even his overall season stats are fairly decent. 

Lugo is also a pitcher who more eyes should be on, as he’s quietly been above-average each of the last two seasons, and his career in Kansas City is riding along the same course. Sporting a WHIP of 1.20, his advanced metrics leave a little to be desired; but yet, he’s gone six or more innings in four out of his first five starts, and has allowed less than two earned runs in each bout. This includes the seven-inning masterclass he put on the last time he faced an AL Central opponent on the road. 

And while these names might not jump off the page to you, these offenses in these specific positions might haunt you. Against righties on the road this season the Royals are averaging 2.5 runs per nine innings; the Tigers against righties at home are hitting .197 and averaging just over three runs per game. 

These offenses in these specific situations have been dormant, and both of these teams average a combined runs per game of about 7.8. That’s the average; meaning that most of the Royals’ thunder is actually coming at home. They’re pretty abysmal offensively on the road. 

Detroit is really good in the first game of the series, and both of these starting pitchers should be able to last until at least six innings. These bullpens are also two of the best in the league, and I expect Comerica to keep this game low-scoring. Let’s take the under 8 in this battle between two teams that are looking to turn it on offensively; but expect the keys to not start in the ignition once game time comes. 

PICK: Kansas City / Detroit under 8

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