Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Matchup Preview - August 14th, 2022

The Philadelphia Phillies will faceoff in a day game against the New York Mets at Citi Field. The Phillies offense will be led by Kyle Schwarber, who ranks as the #32nd-best hitter in baseball according to THE BAT X. Given Kyle Schwarber's profile and today's matchup specifics, THE BAT X expects him to average a .297 wOBA, .207 AVG, and .18 HRs. On the other side, Pete Alonso (THE BAT X's #12th hitter in MLB) will bolster the Mets lineup. He projects for a .311 wOBA, .239 AVG, and .16 HRs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 4.6 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Matt Vierling has been unlucky with his wOBA this year; his .272 figure is quite a bit lower than his .332 Expected wOBA (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

• Projected catcher J.T. Realmuto profiles as an elite pitch framer, per THE BAT projection system.

New York Mets Insights

• Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Chris Bassitt has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 8.5% more often this season (53.7%) than he did last year (45.2%).

• Brandon Nimmo has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.4% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last 14 days.

• The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 4th-best in the game, per THE BAT.

Betting Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 108 games (+18.45 Units / 11% ROI)

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 88 games (+14.00 Units / 12% ROI)

• Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 38 games at home (+9.00 Units / 12% ROI)