New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox Matchup Preview - August 14th, 2022

2 years ago

Editor

Right-hander Jameson Taillon is expected to start today for New York, while right-hander Michael Wacha gets the nod at home for Boston. Taillon enters this contest with a 3.95 ERA, backed up by a 4.03 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Wacha, meanwhile, has a 3.97 FIP underlying his 2.69 ERA. The last time Jameson Taillon was on the bump, he recorded the win as the Yankees defeated the Mariners 9-4. He left allowing 3 earned runs and recording 6 strikeouts with 3 walks. Wacha's last start was against the Blue Jays, when the Red Sox lost 5-6. Over 5 innings pitched, he allowed 4 earned runs with 7 hits. He also recorded 2 strikeouts with 3 walks.

New York Yankees Insights

THE BAT X projects Jameson Taillon to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (11th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Aaron Judge has made notable strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 17.9% rate last season to 27.1% this year.
DJ LeMahieu has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (47.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

Boston Red Sox Insights

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Michael Wacha has gone to his non-fastballs 7.5% less often this season (52.8%) than he did last year (60.3%).
Tommy Pham has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.9-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 92.2-mph figure.
The Boston Red Sox have been the unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to hit better going forward

Betting Trends

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 91 games (+3.85 Units / 4% ROI)
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 34 games (+8.70 Units / 23% ROI)
DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 11 away games (+7.90 Units / 71% ROI)