MLB Bet of the Day | Opening Day

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: N/A
RECAP: Last season, we went 165-118-4 on the season, and gained over 45 units of profit over the course of the season. My goal for this season is to get to 50 units, and we’ll see if we’re able to build on the success of last year. Our plays rely heavily on the Sharp App Projections, but build in more advanced stats and trends than in the NBA, where we typically solely rely on the money handles tool. Let’s get it in game one! 

March 28th, 2024

WE’RE BAAAAAAAAAACK! I am so excited for this year’s edition of MLB of the Day, because we went up a ton of profit last year based on our Sharp projections and our mighty pitcher statistics that we love oh so very much! 

Today, we’re going to look at a divisional matchup that will definitely hit different this year, and should be more competitive; we’re seeing this in the opening lines for the game as well, as the Tampa Bay Rays are hosting their divisional counterparts, the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays are starting Berrios, while the home team is starting Zach Eflin. 

Last season, there was no starter more dominant at home than that of Eflin; when he was in the Trop, he was averaging a WHIP just above one, and only allowed 38 runs over the course of one hundred plus innings. Especially because he had some rough outings over Spring Training, this line is sitting at a total of -130, which is right about where I would take it – I wouldn’t take it above -140. 

Eflin pounds the strike zone, and last season went seven dominant innings against this potent Jays lineup. Because we can’t expect him to go seven innings on the first day of the season (after all, he only had three ST starts), we can look to the bullpen as well, which was absolutely dominant last season. 

Berrios is no slouch either, but really shouldn’t even be in this game, as Kevin Gausman is clearly the ace of this staff. He profiles well, but as an Opening Day starter, he gets barreled far too much for my liking; the Rays have four starters that barrel the ball more than ten percent of the time. That’s some serious exit velo. 

Overall, because of the pitching matchup and the home team, the Tampa Bay Rays just seem like a hammer spot according to our data. Sharp Projections give them a 72% chance to win, and we’ll take those odds any day of the week – Tampa Bay Rays start off 1-0 in the 2024 season. 

PICK: Tampa Bay Rays ML (-130)

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