MLB Bet of the Day | May 8, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 46-46-2, -1.74u
RECAP: Sometimes plays that feel chalky work, and that was exactly the case yesterday as the Diamondbacks whomped the Reds on the road. In our PRO play, the Royals had a two-run lead going into the ninth inning, and their bullpen blew up, and they weren’t able to respond in the bottom half of the inning. We go 1-1 for a .20u loss, and we’re on to today. 

May 8th, 2024

The Padres and Cubs are in a riveting series that sees them tied 1-1 in the series so far, with the rubber match happening during the day today. It features former South Side of Chicago pitcher Dylan Cease taking on Hayden Wesneski, in a matchup between two pitchers who have been very solid, and two bullpens that have actually been able to hold oppositions this season. 

Surprisingly, the Chicago Cubs have the best rotation in baseball in xERA and in real ERA, and that’s a testament to their pitching coaches; one player who has made that jump has been Hayden Wesneski, the hard-throwing righty who ranks in the top 80% in nearly every advanced pitching category, including xERA (98th), xBA (97th), and hard-hit percentage (91st). He’s allowed one earned run over the course of three starts, and has been given a longer and longer leash this season, most recently giving up three hits and going just over six innings against the Brewers, one of the hottest offenses in baseball.

His opposite is Dylan Cease, who is equally on a tear through major league batting orders. Against the Cubs in his career, he’s held this regular starting lineup to an xBA of .192 and an actual average of .082, with a crazy weighted on-base percentage of .316 – that’s insane. Cease has been fantastic on the road this season, holding batters to a WHIP of .86 and has been electric in his three day-game starts as well. 

While these offenses are generally very hot, they’ve actually cooled off over the last ten games. The Cubs have struggled to score effectively over their last ten games, averaging just under four runs per game against righties, including an average of .201 and an OBP of .279. The Padres, on the other hand, have been quite effective offensively, which is the one sticking point - but their averages are actually going down over their last ten, including a less-patient approach. For someone who has nasty movement, Wesneski might be able to hold these hitters down. 

This game is projected at just under eight runs according to what I’m seeing, so let’s take our chance on the under with these aces on the mound. Under 8.5. 

PICK: San Diego / Chicago under 8.5

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