MLB Bet of the Day | May 7, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 45-45-2, -1.54u
RECAP: As Miley Cyrus said, “It’s the climb.” And boy are we climbing, gaining another 1.84 units on our two plays yesterday, sweeping our board. We had a plus-money winner in the Phillies (which just seemed too easy) and we tagged a win onto the Rangers as well against the A’s, in which the line seemed a little trap-py, but we came out with the win. We’re back to .500 on our plays, and we’ll be out of the red in no time. 

May 7th, 2024

This is a basic pick. I know it, you know it, and your momma knows it. But Zac Gallen is being underestimated here, and Frankie Montas’ advanced metrics just aren’t where you’d like to see, and regression is absolutely on the horizon for the right-handed pitcher. 

While the Diamondbacks haven’t exactly been world-beaters this season, the Reds have really struggled at home to grab wins. The Diamondbacks have been absolutely atrocious to begin series’ so far this year, and listen; they can’t continue to regress this hard. 

Gallen has been hit hard over his last two games, and the moneyline is clearly leaning into that. But based on his advanced stats, there’s very little evidence to show that he’s changing or regressing in any way; sometimes with pitchers, the BABIP doesn’t work in your favor. Against righties at home, the Reds are averaging .219 and are getting on base at about a 30% clip. The craziest part, though, is that even if the DBacks aren’t scoring as much, they’re averaging the SAME on-base percentage against righties on the road; that means that it’s just a matter of which pitcher can keep more batters off base. And Frankie Montas isn’t that guy. 

Some advanced stats for you: Montas ranks in the 19th percentile in whiff percentage (swings and misses), 15th percentile in strikeouts, and he walks more than he’d like. The past two games that he’s pitched he’s gotten lit up, and he’s coming off of the injured list and could very well be on a pitch count. 

Who isn’t on a pitch count? Gallen, who still ranks in the top half in strikeouts, walks, and he’s still missing barrels at an outstanding rate. His velocity is a little down, but his xERA and ground ball percentage is still right in the middle, meaning that he’s legitimately unlucky this season on balls in play. He’s gotten hit hard, but his team just hasn’t been able to find gloves; and that’s why we’re rolling with Gallen and company tonight. He’s just more consistent. 

I hate relying on regression, but it feels like the whole world is against Arizona and Gallen tonight, mentally. Let’s take them on the moneyline to take this game on the road. 

PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks ML

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!