MLB Bet of the Day | May 5, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 41-44-1, -4.36u
RECAP: I am on the coldest of cold streaks for my MLB of the Day articles, but that doesn’t mean that I’m going to stop cranking them out, as the weather really affected our play yesterday. My other two plays went green,with both the A’s and the Padres winning rather easily, to give us a boost of about a unit of profit! Let’s look to build on it today again in a massive slate. 

May 5th, 2024

There are very few hitters in the MLB that could qualified as elite; players like Marcell Ozuna, Elly De La Cruz, Shohei Ohtani, and Mookie Betts can be identified as able to hit the ball very well, hard, and often. The Colorado Rockies have no one even close to that measure. 

And today, they face Pittsburgh in a matchup between Ryan Feltner and Bailey Falter; at first, you may be like, WHO?, but hear me out on this one, because a lack of bats is going to propel us to the finish line on this one. 

Feltner has quietly had one of the best advanced metrics seasons to date, even if his real numbers are inflated because of Coors Field. In reality, Feltner has one of the lowest average exit velocities in the league, his xBA is .221, and the 27-year-old is in the top 70th percentiles in most major pitching categories. 

Falter falls under some of these same umbrellas, but is overshadowed because of Pitt’s slow start. He’s going to give you at least five innings of good work, and may let a few slide across, but will mostly limit the damage. He’s one of the most dominant home pitchers in baseball, sporting a .054 WHIP at home so far this season across thirteen innings. He’s given up just one run across that span, and it was a random home run that barely carried over the wall; he’s a dominant home pitcher. 

And these offenses aren’t exactly world-beaters. At home against righties, the Pirates average just under three runs per nine innings and hitting .213. The Rockies aren’t much better on the road, averaging just over three runs per game, and getting on base only 27% of the time during at-bats. These offenses aren’t the best, and this total of eight is just too high, especially with this pitching matchup on the bump.

Let’s take the under in this game, as it’s going to be a struggle for these two teams to score this afternoon. Eight is a low total, but the ball just isn’t flying into gaps or out of the park as of late. 

PICK: Colorado / Pittsburgh under 8

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!