MLB Bet of the Day | May 30, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 80-74-4, +1.69u
RECAP: We leave Wednesday at 2-0 on the day to cash our MLB of the Day and our Pro Play, and we’re back in the black for the MLB season. The Kansas City Royals and Philadelphia Phillies closed both of their games easily and weren’t too sweaty by the end of each of them, making it an easy day for MLB Sharp followers to feel good about bringing that money in. Today we have a tiny slate, but there’s got to be value somewhere in there! 

May 30th, 2024

Logan Gilbert scares you, I know. You look at this total and think, “Spencer Arrighetti is pitching and the total is only at 7”? I know. I promise you, I know. You’re scared. Let’s dive into the logic here. 

Our Sharp App AI has this game at a pegged O/U of 7, which is pretty spot on… but that would be a push. But like a vampire, we’re going to see Logan Gilbert in the daytime, and these Stros bats are bound to wake up at some point, right? 

Logan Gilbert is an ace, there’s no doubt about it - he’s a bonafide flamethrower with most of his advanced stats redder than the blood of his enemies. But his biggest problem has been his hard-hit rate/average exit velocity, which is only in the 28th percentile. A majority of his damage this year, too, has one thing in common: the sun. 

I mean it. During the daytime so far this season, he’s been immensely human; over the course of four daytime games, he’s allowed a run every two innings this season, and his WHIP is above 1.00. Even going back to last season, Gilbert struggled the most during the daytime, and it’ll be 1PM on the West Coast at first pitch. 

And the Astros are much better against righties this season than lefties, getting on base at a clip just over 30%. Over their last ten games against righties, they’re hitting .270 and getting on base 33% of the time – the problem has been this Seattle pitching staff, which has been really, really good. 

But that’s what Spencer Arrighetti is for. While this Seattle offense isn’t going to tear the cover off of the ball, they might have their chance today, with a player on the mound who has an ERA over 10 in his away games this season. He’s allowed 19 runs over 16 innings of work on the road this season, and the Seattle bats also need a wake up call - it might be today.

All we need is 8 runs. That’s getting six innings out of Gilbert, where he allows three. That means we only need five against Arrighetti. We can get that! I know that we can. I believe. Do you? 

PICK: Houston/Seattle over 7

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