MLB Bet of the Day | May 29, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 78-74-4, -0.23u
RECAP: And just like that, our free fall back into the depths of hell continues, as we go 2-4 on the day yesterday where I had way too many picks for my liking. I don’t like to go over four total plays, but we went for a couple live plays throughout the day. Our MLB of the Day didn’t go anywhere, and I’m struggling with the value that I’m finding so far throughout this season. 

May 29th, 2024

When you’re in a rut, it’s always important to go back to old reliable, and that’s the Kansas City Royals. Tonight, they look to avoid the sweep against their division rival in Minnesota, and they’re sending one of their aces to the mound to make it happen.

Seth Lugo has been an underrated star of the MLB this season, and he’s been dicing up opponents all season. Over his last five starts, he’s averaging 6.2 innings pitched and holds an ERA near one. In fact, he’s facing a Twins lineup that hasn’t been able to hit right-handed pitching all season - they’re only averaging four runs per game and hitting .217 against righties this season per nine innings, and getting on base on average 30% of the time. 

Now, bring in Lugo, and we’ve got quite the matchup. On the road this season, Lugo has an ERA of 0.75 and a WHIP of .69 – that’s by far the best in the league on the road. He’s the most dominant road pitcher in the league and has only allowed three total earned runs over 36 innings pitched. He’s been the definition of a masterclass on the road. 

Bailey Ober is taking the mound for the Twins, and he’s got his work cut out for him against this Royals team. Over their last ten games against righties, they’re hitting .263 and getting on base 33% of the time. And while he’s had a relatively successful season so far, he’s gotten hit much harder in May than in April - he’s sporting 13 earned runs over 26 innings, which basically means that he’s allowing a run every two innings. 

This Royals offense is potent, too, especially against the arm of Ober. This Royals lineup is hitting .353 against Ober in 75 plate appearances, and even has an xBA near .300, which means that you’re really getting hit hard. The biggest kryptonite for Ober is his inability to get ground balls against this lineup, with a launch angle average of 22 degrees.

The Book Liabilities and Squares are on Minnesota, which makes for a ripe opportunity to grab the dog looking to avoid the sweep. While it could be close, look for Lugo to continue his success on the road, and for the Royals to snag one. 

PICK: Kansas City Royals ML

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