MLB Bet of the Day | May 27, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 75-68-4, +3.03u
RECAP: Yesterday was just about the worst day that we could have in the MLB of the Day streets, as our four plays go winless to drop four units. We’re working on climbing out of this hole starting today, as we have another big slate on the way to cap this holiday weekend here in the States. Let’s get into it. 

May 27th, 2024

Am I missing something? Am I falling into square territory? Because oh my, are we absolutely locking in a -120 favorite against a team that has been absolutely horrible this season. 

The Cleveland Guardians are a team I haven’t had the chance to write about a whole lot this season, and they’re in Colorado today taking on the Rockies at Coors Field. Coors hasn’t been its usual self this season, as the Rockies are only averaging four runs per game against righties on their home field. Today, the Rockies are hitting against Xzavion Curry, who you may not know much about… but the Rockies are looking primed to hit him pretty hard. Well, they would be, except they can’t hit. 

As a starter so far this season, Curry has been really good; nine innings pitched and only two earned runs over that stretch. And while I don’t think it translates to Coors that well, Colorado’s offense over their last ten games has been getting on base below 30% of the time, and they have a middle-of-the-pack OPS over that stretch. 

The Guardians are a top-10 offense during that stretch, and Austin Gomber’s former success doesn’t scare me against the most diligent offense in the league. Mix Gomber’s skill set (doesn’t strike anyone out, doesn’t miss bats, and very low velo on the fastball) and set up up against the Guardian’s strengths (7 runs per game against lefties over their last ten games, getting on base 38% of the time during that stretch). That’s a recipe for failure. 

Plus, the Guardians are 12-3 over their last fifteen games and have won literally nine straight games, quietly. Their starters have been dealing over that stretch, including a spot start by Curry, and I see that continuing today. The Guardians this season are 9-3 in the first game of the series after a win in the previous game; you’re going to bet against that number, a 75% winning percentage, at -120 odds? C’mon.

This may be a square pick, but it’s a pick that I love. Let’s take Cleveland, and don’t think too hard about it. 

PICK: Cleveland Guardians ML

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