MLB Bet of the Day | May 26, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 75-64-4, +7.03u
RECAP: Another banger of a day as we go 2-1 to gain 1.15 units. It could have been a two-unit or three-unit day, but the Chicago Cubs decided to crap the bed in the eighth inning of their bout against the Cardinals. We hit plus-money on our MLB of the Day in a sweat-fest, but the Giants were never out of the game and took over in extra innings. We also added the total in Washington to add 1.15 units to our season-long total. 

May 26th, 2024

Last season, we ran with the early morning unders, a concept where on Sundays, the earliest game (which is now Sunday Leadoff on Roku, I believe) is an auto-under. And today,  Casey Mize will throw his first pitch at 11:35AM local time. That’s way too early for batters to be awake and ready to play, and that’s why we take the unders. 

I’m only 25% joking when I say things like that, because it’s just true; and the line movement on this game is already suggesting that, after most books have moved it down to 7.5 (we grabbed the 8 for the security), that this is going to be low-scoring. 

Kikuchi is taking the mound for the Blue Jays, and he’s been on a tear this season, allowing the lowest expected on-base percentage in the league. His stuff has been filthy all season, and this Tigers team just cannot hit lefties to save their life. This season against lefties at home, the Tigers are averaging under three runs per game and getting on base at an extremely low clip for Major League Baseball, at 27%. 

Casey Mize isn’t exactly an ace on the mound for the Tigers, but he doesn’t allow batters to get on base for free, and he’s shown that he can have glimpses of hope throughout the season. Home games are his bread and butter, as he’s allowed teams a WHIP of only .91 this season and has only walked three batters over 23 innings. 

Plus, this Toronto offense leaves much to be desired. On the road this season against righties they aren’t much better of an offense than the Tigers are, hitting .208 with an OBP under that 30% mark, which is our golden number when we’re looking at offenses. They score 3.6 runs per game against righties, and they’ve been mostly cold over this stretch of games. 

Let’s take the under for a lot of different reasons, but amongst them… the early start time, the dominant situations for pitchers, and the lack of offense within both of these teams. Sunday Morning Funders are back! 

PICK: Toronto / Detroit under 8

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