MLB Bet of the Day | May 25, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 73-63-4, +5.88u
RECAP: Yesterday was a bad day in the MLB of the Day streets, as Bryce Harper was ejected and the offenses just never turned on in Colorado. Topped with a PRO loss of Arizona on the run line and a win in Kansas City, we lost 1.11 units on the day. Today we have an afternoon slate and an evening slate that we’ll be diving into as the day goes on, but first, here’s the play of the day! 

May 25th, 2024

I know that most people who casually watch baseball might look at the Mets and Giants game as a game between two teams who are as middle-of-the-pack as they come, but I’d actually love to point out why one of these teams is primed to absolutely take over this series. 

The Giants have been on a historic scoring run, with multiple comeback wins over the past week. They’re averaging over six runs per game in their last ten games, and they have the second-highest OPS over their last fifteen games, only trailing the hottest team in the league, the Royals. Some stats for you about this season that may sway you my way is that the Mets are among the worst teams in the league in the second game of the series this season; in fact, they’re 1-9 this season in game two after losing their first game of the series. They literally only have one win.

And the Giants have the much better pitcher on the mound today as well, with the total in Vegas rising and rising as the day goes on (opened at 7.5, up to 8.5). If Vegas is projecting any team to score some runs today, it has to be the Giants. 

Jordan Hicks is throwing for the away team today, and he has been an absolute menace during day games this season. In his five starts in the daytime, he’s holding batters to a WHIP of .86 and has only allowed four earned runs over 25 innings pitched. He’s dominant at home, where most of his day games reside, but there seems to be just something about the sun shining that makes him pitch well. That’s not to mention that he’s middle of the pack in xBA, xERA, and he prevents hitters from hitting the ball in the air. 

Luis Severino is on the mound for the Mets, and he’s just about the opposite during the daytime; through five games, he holds a WHIP of 1.55 and has allowed 13 runs in 27 innings. This red-hot Giants lineup is going to be able to feast on his league-average hard-hit percentage, and the kicker: every solid reliever was used yesterday in the Mets bullpen in their loss. Yikes.

Let’s take a plus-money dog on the road today, when they’re clearly the hottest team in the league, and there’s a pitcher on the mound that has been historically dominant in the daytime. Jordan Hicks and the Giants will win game two. 

PICK: San Francisco Giants ML

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